Thursday, August 16, 2007

CHECKIN IN WITH MY PREDICTIONS

Back in March I posted here at FPE on how I thought the 2007 MLB season would turn out. Feel free to click on the link and read the whole post, but heres the meat of what I predicted last March (back when I was using pictures):

AL Playoffs
East: Boston
Central: Cleveland
West: Oakland
Wild Card: New York
Boston beats Oakland, 3-1
Cleveland beats New York, 3-2

Boston beats Cleveland, 4-2

NL Playoffs
East: Philadelphia
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Arizona
Wild Card: San Diego

Arizona beats Chicago Cubs, 3-2
San Diego beats Philadelphia, 3-1

San Diego beats Arizona, 4-3

World Series
Boston beats San Diego, 4-3

Obviously, the playoffs haven't begun yet, but its now fairly easy to comment on the projections/guesses of who will make the playoffs and where. Here then is a rundown on how I'm doing with each projection so far.

AL Playoffs
East: Boston
Comment: After a searing start to the season, the Sox have come back to earth. But just because they aren't going to win 120 games this year doesn't mean this isn't a very good team. They still sport the best record in baseball and the largest lead in any division (+5). Looks like a good pick so far.

Central: Cleveland
Comment: Currently tied with Detroit and six games up on third place Minnesota., this looks like a good pick considering the future of the Tigers schedule

West: Oakland
Comment: This is my worst pick by far. Despite a good pitching staff, the A's offense has been awful. They are currently 11.5 games behind the Angels (and 8.5 behind the Mariners) in the AL West. Zero chance to win the division or make the playoffs.

Wild Card: New York
Comment: After being left for dead, the Yankees have stormed back into the playoff discussion. Those of us who appreciate statistical analysis had an idea that this was likely to happen based on the team's runs scored/runs allowed stats. In any case, the Yankees are tied with Seattle, a much less talented team, for the lead in the WC. The loser of the Indians/Tigers AL Central race will also be in the running for the WC, though both teams are a game behind the pace being set by Seattle and NY. Another good pick (what a genius I am!).

NL Playoffs
East: Philadelphia
Comment: OK, maybe I'm not such a genius. The Phils have been crushed by injuries recently, but have managed to hang in the NL East race. They sit 4.0 behind the first place Mets and 0.5 games behind second place Atlanta. Considering they have two teams to jump over, at this point you'd have to say this is an incorrect pick, but stranger things have happened. If they Phils can hang in until they get Utley back they have a shot.

Central: Chicago Cubs
Comment: 1.5 games behind first place Milwaukee, but considering how the Brewers pitching staff has cratered of late, this isn't a bad pick as the Cubs are probably the stronger team. In other news, Ryan Braun scares me.

West: Arizona
Comment: This is where I went deepest out on a limb, and so far I've been rewarded. Although the Dbacks aren't winning like I thought they would (with a bit more offense) they have been winning. In fact, they currently sport the best record in the NL and a 3.0 game lead over second place San Diego. Great pick, me!

Wild Card: San Diego
Comment: Hey, whadaya know? Another good pick! Really, no, just stop it! Seriously! However, before I pat myself on my back anymore, the Padres lead the WC race by only 0.5 games over Atlanta and 1.0 game over Philadelphia, so this is hardly locked up.

Tune in later when I tell you what a genius I am (unless all my teams fall out of the race, then you'll likely never hear another word about it).

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