BEST OF 18: BOSTON 2, NY 0

I didn't see the game today. I'm finishing up graduate school and one of my classes has a huge presentation to give on Monday. As a result, I spent the day hunkered over Photoshop, Illustrator, and a bunch of other fun programs. Actually, they're not that bad, but not nearly as fun as watching the Sox beat the Yankees. Again.

As for today's game, Big Papi was the difference. Again. This time he hit a double to drive in two, and a two run homer to put the Sox up by three. The Red Sox did what they should have done and beat up on Jeff Karstens, an inferior pitcher just coming off the DL. The Sox got to Karstens for two runs in the first and second innings (matching the Yankees scoring in both) and then for three in the fourth, topped off by Big Papi's homer around the Pesky Pole.

Beckett wasn't dominating like he as been in his other three starts, but like Schilling yesterday he battled effectively.

With the win, the Sox (11-5) took a three game lead over NY (8-8), a 3.5 game lead on Toronto (8-9), but only a 1.5 game lead on... Baltimore (10-7)? Well, one battle at a time.

Tomorrow: The Sox go for the sweep. Matsuzaka takes the mound for the Sox against Chase Wright. Go Sox!

And Round 1 Goes to Boston BY TKO!

Great comeback by the Sox today. Schilling didn't have his best stuff, but battled and was able to almost get by. Unfortunately the amazingly hot Alex Rodriguez was able to hit two homers and a double, single-handedly putting NY up 6-2. A-Rod's first homer was just launched, but his second one, while hit very well, was almost caught by a sprinting Coco Crisp at the wall in right center field. Just as Crisp reached up to grab the ball, he hit the wall and went tumbling into the bullpen, falling on his back. Just another few inches and he would have had it. So close, good try Covelli!

I'm not sure of the rule on that one (in a post-game interview, A-Rod said he wasn't either). If Crisp catches that ball and falls over the outfield fence is it a homer or an out? I'm going to guess its a homer, but I'm not sure.

In any case, Crisp didn't catch it and suddenly the score was yankees 6, Boston 2. Well, actually at that point the yankees had five runs, but they added another in the top of the 8th inning.

In the bottom of the eighth the Red Sox made their move. They got a double from Ortiz to start off, followed by a walk to Manny, a ground out from Drew to advance the runners, a single from Lowell, a single from Varitek (facing Rivera at this point), a triple from Crisp to tie the score, and then a single from Cora to bring in Crisp with the lead run. 7-6, Boston, and the lead held up in the ninth with the excellent work of Hideki Okajima, who has been quite impressive so far. I suspect he's not really this good and the league will start to catch up to him after seeing him a bit, but give the guy some credit, he's looked filthy so far.

Once again, I think Terry Francona managed circles around Joe Torre. For a guy who will probably go into the Hall of Fame as a manager, Torre makes some horrendous in-game decisions. For instance and probably most importantly, pinch running for Jason HGHiambi with a four run lead in the top of the eighth. That came back to bite him in the ninth when HGHiambi's slot came back around at the end of the game and Kevin Thompson who pinch ran for HGHiambi struck out to end the game with the tying run on first. Come to think of it, why was Thompson even hitting in the ninth? Don't the yankees have anyone on the bench? Anyone at all? Hello...?

I applaud Francona for not using Papelbon, even though the situation called for him to come in. He'd thrown a ton of pitches over the past two games, both of which the Red Sox won at least in part because Papelbon was used correctly both times. Its the yankees, but its also April and you don't want to blow your closer's arm out until at least July.

I find it interesting that, while Ortiz and Manny both had a hand in the rally in the eighth inning, it was Varitek, Crisp, and Cora who won the game for Boston. Cora especially came through for the second night in a row after turning an amazing double play and then tripling home the tying run against Toronto last night.

Varitek finished with 3 hits in 4 at-bats, and all were well struck balls. Great news for Sox fans who were getting a mite bit antsy about Tek's struggles at the plate so far this young season.

Conversely, the yankees catcher, Jorge Posada who I think should be considered for the Hall of Fame when his career ends (and it can't end soon enough for me), hurt his finger sometime in the middle of the game and was removed from the game. X-rays were negative, so there is no break, but the LoHud yankees blog has Posada saying that he'll miss "a couple of days."

I don't ever wish for injuries to opponents, but this is definitely a huge advantage for the Sox now that it looks like Posada will miss the rest of this series. The yankee backup catcher is Wil Nieves, who is a fine catcher and judging on his performance tonight, has a good arm (right, J.D.?), but the guy can not hit. Can. Not. Hit.

Without Posada, the back end of the yankee lineup looks like this:

7. Melky Cabrera (who was good last year, but has looked awful this year; current average: .207
8. Doug Mientkiewicz (who's name I just copied and pasted)
9. Wil Nieves

Compare that with the back end of the Sox lineup:

7. Varitek
8. Crisp
9. Pedroia

OK, probably not the greatest 7-9 hitters ever assembled, but for a game or series, I'd take the Boston three over the NY three.

The Red Sox have now won three in a row, and have come from behind in the eighth and ninth innings to beat Roy Halladay and Andy Pettitte. Not bad.

The Sox are all alone in first place in the AL East at the moment. They've got a two game lead on NY, 2.5 on Toronto, and 1.5 on Baltimore. Does it even matter where Tampa is? Well, fine, they're in last, four and a half out.

There was a point in the middle of the game where the camera caught Torre in the dugout doing what looked like sleeping. I'm sure he was conscious (he must have been... right?!), but he had his head in his hands and despite the shot staying on him for multiple seconds, he never moved once. There is a scene in Michael Lewis' fabulous book Moneyball in which Lewis recounts A's GM Billy Beane's insisting that his manager at the time, Art Howe, stand on the step of the dugout, like Washington crossing the Delaware, with his knee up and his chin propped on his fist. Beane said it gave Howe a distinguished look and made him appear more like a leader. Torre might want to consider that the next time he decides to take a cat nap.

The yankees are throwing a couple quasi-rookies at the Sox today (Saturday) and then Sunday night. The Sox will have a big advantage in the starting pitching department for the rest of the series now with Beckett and Matsuzaka scheduled to go. Still, no guarantee of a Boston victory though. Beware the reverse lock!

Today: Jeff Karstens vs. Josh Beckett, 3:55pm

REVERSE LOCK!

"Don't taunt me like that, ball!"

Julian Tavarez and the Sox 'B' lineup on the road to face Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays. Thats a recipe for disaster if I've ever seen one. But, His Craziness held the Jays in check for almost six innings before falling apart, and then Manny and Cora (Cora?) took care of business in the later innings. In the end, after Papelbon was finished embarrassing the Jays in the bottom of the ninth, the Sox were declared victors by a score of 5-3.

As great a comeback win as it was, and it was a great comeback win - raise your hand if you though the Sox were winning this one after seven innings down 3-1 with Halladay dealing - it wasn't the best comeback win of the day in MLB. No, unfortunately that title goes to the Yankees, who overcame a 6-2 deficit in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and nobody on base! I'd love to see the win expectancy chart on that game. Actually, no, I probably wouldn't.

After watching the Yankees come from behind win/the Great Joe Borowski Hit Giveaway (get yours today!) I penned the following email to a friend of mine:

So, after the Red Sox won, I decided to watch the Yankees lose. The Indians were up 6-2 with two outs in the ninth and nobody on base. I was celebrating. The final out was one pitch away. You'd have thought I'd have learned my lesson with Grady Little and countless other examples, but, sadly, no. Of course the final score of the game was Yankees 8, Indians 6. Borowski just kept throwing meatballs. He was unbelievably terrible. And the Yankees kept hitting them, right up until A-Hole ended it with a three run homer crushed to straight away center. The sequence of events went thusly: 6-2, Indians. Out (Cano), Out (Cabrera), Solo Homer (Phelps, 6-3), single (Posada), walk (Damon), single (Abreu, 6-4), single (Jeter, 6-5), homer (A-Hole, 8-6). I can't remember such a horrendous meltdown. Just f'n awful. At no time did Wedge get anyone else up in the pen.

So, its pretty plain from that email that the yankee win is my fault. That and Joe Borowski will likely be thrown into Lake Erie, where he will surely burn to death (obligatory 'lake on fire' joke).

Tomorrow: You-know-who comes to town. Its Andy Pettitte vs. Curt Schilling at 7:05. I won't tempt fate by saying anything stupid, like, you know, guaranteeing a Sox win, but this looks like a good match-up (wink! wink!). Go Sox!

The Idiot Speaks (Again)

Its that time of year again. Its the time that the Yankees and Red Sox renew an old rivalry, the time the fans of said franchises freak the F out about it, and the time the media tries to stir all this up even more than it already is, if thats actually possible.

To wit: Some media member (and I do mean member) asked former Red Sox star and current Yankee nobody Johnny Damon about his former team. The standard answer from ol' big mouth is how amazingly super happy he is in New York and how much better it is there than in Boston. Well, the traitor didn't disappoint us, letting fly about how the Red Sox fans "turned their heads to me." Apparently we Red Sox fans "believe what we believe in."

Leaving aside the fact that both those comments seem, well, ill-formed, for a moment, I'd like to address the tone of the comments. But, in a typically ridiculous journalistic tool, I'd like to address Johnny D himself. Because, you know, he reads this blog all the time.

Dear Johnny D,

Listen up, son. We didn't turn our backs on you, you turned your back on us. Nobody questioned your leaving the team. It was perfectly within your rights to do so. You could have gone to any team in the league with only one exception. We would have wished you the best and cheered you each time you came back to Boston. Look at Orlando Cabrera and Dave Roberts. Both of those guys were Red Sox for about three or four months and they're still heros in Boston. You, Manny, and Papi were the cornerstones of the Boston franchise. Even if you left, you still wouldn't have ever had to pay for a beer in Boston for the rest of your life.

But, like Dubya, you took all the goodwill that was extended to you and squashed it. What I don't understand is your sense of bewilderment. How did you expect the fans to react? As a Red Sock you knew how Red Sox fans feel about the Yankees, so when you came back to Fenway as a Yankee, obviously we're not going to throw roses at you. No, we're going to boo yr ass. Of frick'n course! You know why, right? I hope I don't need to answer that.

Further, every time you open your yap and babble about how much you love New York and how happy you are there instead of Boston you just sound desperate and lame. It doesn't matter anyway, because we don't want you back, Johnny. You're not welcome in Boston. And every time you set foot in this town you can expect to hear about it from us.

All Red Sox fans hate Jeter, but we all respect him too. We all love to poke A-Rod, but only because he's so sensitive and clumsy about it. But you, Johnny, you are at the head of the line.
The second you put on pinstripes and that ugly hat with the NY on it, you became public enemy number one. You know why? Because we all loved you, and there really is a fine line between love and hate. Its a shame, because it didn't have to be that way at all.

Good luck in New York, I hope you f'ers never win another game.

-mattymatty

Can't we skip this?

His Craziness

Yesterday's rain-out (not featuring snow!) was an opportunity for the Red Sox, that I'm proud to say they seized. The Sox rotation at this point runs four deep. Julian Tavarez is a place holder in the fifth slot, primarily because he just isn't very good (note: nothing against Julian personally; he seems like a terrific guy). The best way to handle this situation is to limit the number of innings that the fifth starter throws until the fifth starter becomes someone better (like a Lester or a Clemens). Yesterday's missed game, which would have featured His Craziness on the mound, provides a perfect opportunity to skip the fifth slot and keep everyone on regular rest. The Sox opted to do just that.

Why do we need to severely curtain Tavarez's innings? PECOTA (the projection system for Baseball Prospectus) pegs Tavarez for a 4.43 ERA on the season, but that is expecting him to pitch from the bullpen. Add about a run on to that projection and you get something resembling a fair expectation of what Tavarez can provide you in the starter role. If Tavarez pitches 5 innings and gives up about four runs, thats about all we can legitimately ask of him, and thats not very good. Basically, unless the Sox offense breaks out each time he pitches, starting Tavarez is pretty close to going into a game with one hand tied behind your back.

So, it stands to reason that you would want to miss his starts if given the opportunity to do so without forcing the rest of the starters to work on a sub-optimal amount of rest. Also of note, this way we get Diasuke Matsuzaka facing the Yankees twice in nine days, on the 20th of April, and then again on the 29th.

Tonight: The Sox start a four game series with the Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Angels of Coconut Cream Pie. Tim Wakefield The Aged goes for the Sox, to be followed by Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett (who has no blog for me to link to), and then fittingly His Craziness gets the call for Monday's semi-insane 10am Patriots Day start. He will be opposed on that day by Jared "The Better" Weaver, who will be making his first start of the season having begun it on the Disabled List.

Next: I compare the Yankees with ooze I found underneath my toilet seat! Stay tuned!

SUPERMAN SMASH MARINERS!

The Red Sox crushed "World Series Superhero" Jeff Weaver and his merry clan of M's today (er.. yesterday, I'm late putting this up). The final was, I think, 6,000 - 2. Thanks, Mike Timlin! Just about everyone on the team including the physicians had at least one hit. Come to think of it, I might have just seen Wally the Green Monster up there somewhere around the eighth inning. Just once I want to see that giant booger hit. I'd love to see the look on the pitchers face when he looks in for the sign and sees this:


Even if Wally had hit fourth for the Sox today it wouldn't have mattered. Weaver was excrement, and Josh Beckett was terrific. Beckett managed to strike out eight guys and not walk a single hitter in seven masterful innings. If he's going to consistently pitch with anything close to this type of quality through the season, the Sox rotation is going to be pretty sick indeed.

So far the Sox have had a terrific outing each from Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield, and Matsuzaka. Counting tonight, the Yankees have had a good outing from both Pettitte and Pavano. Advantage: Boston!

Tomorrow: The Most Hyped Pitching Event In The Long Storied History Of Japan That Won't Actually Take Place In Japan (or "TMHPEITLSHOJTWATPIJ" as the kids like to call it) will occur when Matsuzaka squares off against Ichiro and the Mariners.

Personally, I'm more excited to see Felix Hernandez pitch than I am to see Ichiro hit, but to each his own. Fortunately Hernandez isn't Japanese; then the entire island of Japan might just explode. For now they'll have to settle for getting up at 6am to see the game. Happy nappings, Japan!

BIG PAPI RETURNS

Big Papi at Spring Training (courtesy: me)

Great win in TexAss tonight by our Sox. Some Notes from tonight's series ender vs. the Rangers:

• Last night I noted that David Ortiz finally made good contact on a pitch in the ninth inning, flying out to right field. I noted that it could be the start of Ortiz "finding his barrings" out there. Well, in his first two at-bats Ortiz has found his barrings, making contact solid enough to send the ball over the outfield wall both times. I believe the kids call it hitting a "home run."

• Manny has yet to follow Ortiz's lead exactly, but he did make some very solid contact himself. He hit two to the base of the wall in dead center field, both of which were caught by Kenny Lofton who, I believe, is eight hundred years old.

• Through seven innings, Curt Schilling looked like the Curt Schilling we were expecting a week ago in Kansas City. He spotted his fastball, and his splitter had some bite on it. He missed a few spots and hung a curve or two, but he didn't put himself in position to really get hurt. He did give up a first inning homer to Frank Catalanatto, but that was it. Overall, a very impressive performance by Schilling

• In contrast to yesterday, the Red Sox offense was pretty unimpressive. It was Big Papi or bust.

• Maybe its just me, but Jason Varitek seems to be settling in at the plate a bit. He doesn't look great, but he seems to be putting a better swing on the ball than in the first few games.

• A key decision in tonight's game was whether or not to bring Curt Schilling back to pitch the bottom of the eight inning. Schilling hat thrown just over 100 pitches and had retired the side in order in the seventh, but Francona decided to bring in Joel Pineiro anyway.

• So, Pineiro came out of the pen in the eighth inning to face the 8, 9 and 1 hitters in the Rangers lineup. Not exactly murderers row, but he walked the first two hitters he faced anyway. Kenny Lofton followed with a bunt base hit to load the bases. Pineiro was yanked after loading the bases and while not recording an out. Just unbelievably bad. A guy who does that deserves to be cut. Of course he won't be, and he shouldn't, but how do you justify yourself as a major league pitcher when you can't throw a damn strike?

• Because Pineiro screwed up so bad, Francona was forced to bring Papelbon into the eighth inning. As bad as Pineiro was, Papelbon was the polar opposite, only better. While Pineiro came in to face the bottom of the Rangers order, Papelbon came in to face the Rangers two best hitters, Michael Young and Mark Teixeira. Young, who is one of the better contact hitters in baseball and had made solid contact in every at-bat all night, struck out on four pitches. Teixeira popped up on the first pitch weakly to Mike Lowell at third. Five pitches, inning over, rally squashed, thank you very much.

Its easy to second-guess Francona's decision in retrospect. Schilling needed eight pitches to get through the seventh and the bottom of the Rangers order was up in the eighth. I'd have liked to see Schilling go out there and see if he could get the side in order in the eighth. If he couldn't, they could have gone out there and got him mid-inning. Of course, if the Sox are going to do anything this season they're going to need Schilling.

So, in the end, Schilling got "saved" from extra work, Papelbon reminded us why we consented to put up with Julian Tavarez's craziness every five days, and Big Papi's season of crushing began.

Off on Monday, and then the home opener vs. the Mariners at 2:05pm.

Michael Kay, Todd Helton, and other notes

Stone Cold Homer

• You remember last night's Yankees/O's game right? Its the one that Alex Rodriguez won by hitting a grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. I bet you forgot that Jeter managed to draw a walk on a 3-2 pitch (if my memory serves) a few batters earlier. Well, Yankees announcer Michael Kay didn't. It took Kay just half an inning during today's broadcast to give Derek Jeter credit for being “clutch” in the ninth inning of last night’s game. You'll remember from two sentences ago, that A-Rod hit the grand slam home run to win the game. When Kay finally got to that fact, it was not described as a ‘clutch’ grand slam home run to win the game, and not even a grand slam home run to win the game, just a home run. Silly A-Rod… Didn’t he know he didn’t need to hit a grand slam homer? He should have hit a double. He’s always piling on. Jeter would have hit a double.

• Part of the reason the Red Sox are 2-3 right now is that they haven't shown any power. In fact, the entire Red Sox team has as many home runs as Paul Bako. Who, you say, is Paul Bako? Exactly.

• According to Kay, this season was the first time in Yankees history in which none of the first five starters made it into the fifth inning. That doesn't bode well for the Yankees post-season aspirations. They won’t be able to over-come terrible starting pitching no matter how good their hitting.

• According to Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are still interested in Todd Helton of the Colorado Rockies. It would be interesting to see what the Rockies are asking for to give up Helton. Helton is a good hitter, but he's older and has been on the DL a fair bit over the past few years. Probably even more problematic is the massive contract that the Rockies handed Helton, which has him signed through 2011 at $16.6 Million a season. I'm sure the Red Sox would be happy to have Helton, but not unless the Rockies pick up a vast majority of that contract.

OVER-MATCHED BY YOURSELF

What happens when the defense and the starting pitching both fail on the same night? Unless you've got A-Rod to hit a grand slam in the ninth (and a post-juicing Jason Giambi to hit a 3 run homer an inning earlier), then things don't tend to work out well.

The Red Sox lost another one in Texas tonight, 8-4 to the Rangers. Primarily, the problem was the Red Sox pitching. Julian Tavarez was good for about two and 2/3 innings and then completely fell apart. He gave up what was an inside the park homer with one runner on, although it should have been a five base error on Drew who ended up chasing the ball down the right field line and around the wall for what felt like a century. J. C. Romero, who I have a feeling is in for a good year, looked utterly terrible today, giving up three runs without recording an out.

While the pitching was pretty bad, I can't say the same of the hitting. The Red Sox did manage eleven hits while drawing five walks. As you might guess for a team that scores only four runs with sixteen baserunners, they missed a bunch of opportunities. Chief among them was David Ortiz's meek ground out with the bases loaded in the second inning. J.D. Drew also wasted an opportunity with a couple guys on, although he had a couple hits and scored a run or two.

The last two games the Red Sox have had one of good pitching and good hitting, but never both.

Some Quick Notes:

• David Ortiz still looks lost at the plate. He did take a walk, but every time he hit the ball it was weak contact. Even his single in the first wasn't too impressive. As I'm writing this in the ninth inning, Ortiz managed to fly out to deep right-center field, almost to the warning track. Maybe he's starting to get his barrings out there. One can only hope.

• Coco Crisp hit the ball hard just about every time up and came away with only one hit. Well, I thought he had a hit... I'm looking back over the box score and they have him at 0 for 4 with a run scored. In any case, just a few feet in either direction and Crisp could easily have had three hits. Its good to see him coming around a bit, even if the box score won't show it yet.
  

• Despite his modest success as a starter at the end of last season, Julian Tavarez is not the answer to the Red Sox fifth starter problem. Primarily this is because he's just too wild, walking five guys in four innings. I think he is best suited to come out of the bullpen.
  

• Manny struck out looking twice with runners on. Of all the hitters to worry about, Manny is last on my list.
  

Hopefully Schilling can prove Opening day a fluke tomorrow night.

TOUGH LUCK FOR TIMMY-TIMMY

Maybe next time we consider using some of these

Good News:

• Timmy-Timmy Wakefield has still got it. Yesterday, he gave up only two runs (only one earned) to a pretty good hitting Rangers team, though they haven't showed it yet this year. Still, Timmy-Timmy held the 'gers to just two runs over six innings, K'ing four and BB'ing two.
  

• The bullpen kept up their impressive streak, throwing two innings of no-run ball (the Rangers were at home and were leading, so the Sox pen didn't have to throw in the ninth inning). Still, Okajima pitched very well, despite one walk, and Kyle Snyder who is reminding me more and more of Bronson Arroyo (its probably the height) was particularly impressive, getting a good number of swings and misses to his pitches. He was consistently ahead in the count, and all his pitches had movement.
  

• Mike "Mikey Doubles" Lowell didn't make any errors.

• Coco had a nice hit, over the head of the left fielder for a double. Of course he was stranded there.
  

• The Yankees lost and looked bad doing it.
  

Bad News:

• Where to start... Robinson Tejeda didn't impress me. His velocity wasn't impressive, his location wasn't impressive and he walked three guys in seven innings while only striking out one. Once again, not impressive. Given all that, the Red Sox should have smacked him around a bit. Or maybe scored a few times. Or got more than three hits. Three hits? Sheesh...

• Ortiz looks lost at the plate. Twice in a row he swung at the first pitch resulting in a pop up to right field and a ground out to second base. Of course, he's not worried.
  

NEXT UP:
The anointed 5th starter takes the ball today in Arlington vs. the TexAss "Don't Call Us NY" Rangers. It should be a dandy!

Hmmm... What Should I Write About?

Just another day at the office

Daisuke Matsuzaka made his official debut in Kansas City today. I didn't get to see him pitch because I was in class, but I did follow the game online. This was his big chance to show us all what he can do and he did not disappoint. Hopefully this is just the first in a series of great starts for Daisuke.

THE STOPPER

Yeah!

It wasn't perfect. It wasn't even what we all hope to get out of Josh Beckett this season. But when the smoke cleared, tonight's box score said that Josh Beckett had pitched effectively enough to earn the win against the Royals.

Beckett threw 94 pitches in five innings and walked four batters. He also struck out five and only allowed two hits. He struggled with his command a bit, but did not allow himself (or Varitek didn't allow him) to lapse into his old fastball-only habits. To his credit, Beckett stuck with the curve, or the slider, or whatever off speed junk he kept trying to throw, even when it wasn't in the strike zone. He managed to get a good number of swings and misses tonight on both the fastball as well as the off speed pitches.

Unfortunately, he was forced to throw a bunch more pitches as Mike Lowell came down with an acute case of A-Rod-itis. Lowell had a good day at the plate, and even made some adept plays in the field, but somehow he managed to make three errors, with two coming on consecutive plays. Still, the KC hitters weren't able to take advantage of Lowell's kindness, mostly due to Beckett's stinginess. While he could have taken the opportunity to get upset and try to blow it by the hitters, Beckett kept his composure when it mattered most and was able to retire the remaining KC hitters without giving up any runs.

Hopefully not lost in the positive display tonight was the performance of the Sox bullpen. Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, JC Romero, and Joel Pinero collectively pitched four innings allowing only one hit and no runs. There weren't even any walks given out. Pinero and Romero particularly looked filthy. If the pen is going to throw like this, or more realistically, if the pen is going to throw close to this on a nightly basis, the Sox are going to be very formidable this season.

It feels good after three days to finally get in the win column and get this season going. Did you know before the Sox game was over the Orioles had already finished their third game? (They're 0-3.)

Tomorrow afternoon we get the circus that is Matsuzaka making his big league debut. He'll be opposed by Zack Greinke, a young guy with a lot of talent. Should be worth watching. Unfortunately, I'll be in class, so I'll be following along on the ol' interweb. Thank God for the "series of tubes."

I WATCH BASEBALL AND RIP OFF GAMMONS

I am lucky enough to have satellite television at my house. I rent and DirecTV was here when I moved in. Since it was already installed we just left it in, rather than go through the hassle of switching to cable. Now, MLB's ill-advised decision to limit its Extra Innings package to DirecTV while excluding cable means I'm the only Red Sox fan here in Philly (there are more of us than you think - we're like roaches in the walls (there are more of them than you think)) that I know who can watch the Sox games. I mention this because if any other Philly-based Red Sox blogs try to tell you they "saw" a game on TV, now you know they're lying.

On an off-day for the Sox, here are some MLB notes from around the league:

• If you thought things were bad for the Washington Nationals, well, they're only getting worse. Opening Day, or "Opening Week", saw two Nationals players go down. Today they were both placed on the disabled list. Welcome to Washington, were even shitty things are shittier than they seem.
  

• Good Cardinals News: Your "World Champion" St. Louis Cardinals got their World Series Bling yesterday. The more I think about the fact that an 83 win team made the playoffs, let alone saw the fates align to hand them the softest World Series win in my 31 years on this planet, the more I get like this guy.

• By all accounts, the Yankees had an emotional day at the Stadium, before wupp'n the Tampa "Don't call us 'devil'" Rays bullpen for their first win of the year. Still, there are some high points for us yankee-haters out here in cyber-land. Can't-Pitch-Carl Pavano reminded us all that, oh yeah, he can't pitch very well. Also, not only did he pitch badly, but he lost out on this.

• Bad Cardinals News: Potential Cy Young contender and only decent Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter is hurt. Carpenter may miss his next start due to a "sore elbow." Carpenter, you'll remember, wasn't so stellar against the Mets on Opening... uh, night. Maybe theres more going on here than just a sore elbow. Cardinals fans better hope not.

• Yanks v. Jesus Rays, 1pm, Pettttitttte vs. Whothehell Knows
  

• Red Sox @ KC, 8pm, Beckett vs. Odalis Perez
  

Go Sox!

TIME TO KILL MYSELF!!

HEY EVERYONE!! THE RED SOX LOST!! THEY'RE NOT GOING TO WIN A GAME THE WHOLE SEASON!! MAYBE EVER! THEY SUCK! CURT SCHILLING IS OLD! YOU KNOW HOW OLD HE IS? HE'S SO OLD HE WON'T EVER WIN ANOTHER BASEBALL GAME! MANNY RAMIREZ SHOULD BE CUT BECAUSE HE DOESN'T CARE! I KNOW HE DOESN'T CARE BECAUSE HE DIDN'T GET A HIT!! IF HE CARED, HE'D HAVE HIT A SEVEN RUN HOMER TO WIN THE GAME!!

ALSO THE ROYALS ARE THE GREATEST TEAM EVER!! GIVE GIL MECHE THE CY YOUNG NOW!! HE WON ONE GAME!! THATS ONE MORE GAME THAN CURT SCHILLING AND HIS SUPPOSEDLY "GOOD" BOSTON RED SOX WILL EVER WIN AGAIN!!

AWW WELL... ITS ONLY OPENING DAY

SOMEONE didn't have it today.

After a good spring training, Ol' Curt had his first bad start of the year. Unfortunately, it was on the first game of the year. After the first inning it was never close. Schilling actually got a fair number of swings and misses, but his control was off, often forcing Varitek to reach across the plate to glove his offerings.

I guess if your ace pitcher is going to have an off day you'd rather it be early on in the season and on a day when your offense falls asleep. And fortunately (?) for the Red Sox, that's exactly what happened. The Red Sox offense was just as lousy as Schilling was. Just to illustrate the point, the Sox had two guys get thrown out at second base by at least ten feet each.

Three years ago, the Red Sox started the season by losing 7-2 on opening day. Curt Schilling took the loss in that game too. As everyone not living on Mars knows, the Red Sox went on to win the World Series.

Every year as baseball season starts I have to pull myself out of my football game mindset. In football every game is vitally important because there are only 16 of them. But in baseball there are one hundred million games (OK, actually 162), so you can afford to lose one once in a while. You'd like to start the year off on a good note, but there are still 161 games left to rectify this one.

NOT WORTH THE PAPER THEY'RE NOT PRINTED ON

See what living in Philadelphia will do to you?*

Its opening day again, and thank God for that. I'm not sure I can deal with one more prediction. Every blog, website, radio show, and newspaper has run articles or posts or what ever predicting the outcomes that the upcoming season will reveal. I'm afraid even I am guilty of putting my 100%-guaranteed-to-be-wrong picks out there via this very site. I'm almost regretting it at this point. How many predictions can one person possibly digest? I understand predictions based on something, like PECOTA (the statistical projecting tool that Baseball Prospectus uses), and I understand that predictions are supposed to be fun... I guess the fault lies with me. In my anticipation for the season to start, I've been reading everything I can get my hands on that sounds informative, whether it is or not.

*Thanks to Jere for the screenshot above.

UNDER WATER BALLPARK

Last night I dreamed that I was at Wrigley Field for a ball game, but the field was under water. The game went on without a hitch anyway. Since I've never seen a game there before (I've been there, but not for a game) I assumed that this was normal, and judging by all actions it was. The fielders were all standing on water, and fielding grounders and catching fly balls. Just another game at ol' Underwater Wrigley.

I'm not sure what this says about the Cubs chances this season, but when your fielders can walk on water it can't hurt.

I'm off to New York City to see Bloc Party perform tonight. Then its back home to Philly for the Sox/Phillies game tomorrow. Matsuzaka is taking the mound for the Sox. Which reminds me, the Boston Globe has their annual baseball preview section up on their site. Its worth checking out - just stay away from anything written by the poisonous fingers of the Curly Haired Boyfriend.

2007 MLB PREDICTIONS

Once again, its late. Or, uh, early. Its probably too either late or early to do the whole I'm-going-to-predict-the-results-of-the-upcoming-baseball-season any justice, but I'm gonna force myself to do this. That way, at the end of the season, it will be documented that I don't know what I'm talking about.

A quick note: I'm going to throw these predictions up here with the minimalist of comments. At least that way, people won't know why I predicted the equivalent of Anna Nicole Smith died of natural causes. Also, not that anyone would actually do this, but if you did add up all the game totals you won't get equal amounts of wins and loses. I picked the teams records based on how good I think they are going into the season, and, like me in tenth grade trying to do a simple problem, it probably doesn't add up correctly. Anyway...

So, without further ado:

AL East

1. Red Sox, 97-65
-People got all upset when Manny Ramirez peed in the Green Monster. I think peeing is really funny though, so I'm all for it. In fact, I think Manny should pee on more things, like pigeons, fire hydrants, and Mel Gibson.

2. Yankees, 93-69
-Not that this is a sign or anything, but yesterday at Chili's, A-Rod opted out of his chicken fajitas.

3. Blue Jays, 89-73
-Who knew such a high payroll could buy such irrelevance.

4. Orioles, 72-90
-Orioles fans can only hope Peter Angelos buys something else to screw up.

5. Devil Rays, 70-92
-Proof that in order to be a factor in the division, yes, in fact, you probably do need to get some pitching at some point.

AL Central

1. Indians, 90-72
-Indians division winning hopes rest on CC Sabathia's ability to eat other teams.

2. White Sox, 88-74
-Best thing about Scott Podsednik: his hustle when grounding out
-Worst thing about Scott Podsednik: his grounding out when he hustles

3. Twins, 87-75
-Sidney Ponson is coming to town! Hide the women and the doughnuts!

4. Tigers, 86-76
-At present rate of increase, Tigers expect to win 147 games this year.

5. Royals, 66-96
-At present rate of increase, Royals expect to suck donkey nut hair.

AL West

1. A’s, 86-76
-Its very lucky that when Mr. and Mrs. Harden named their child "Richard" they decided to go with "Rich" instead of "Dick" because "Dick Harden" is just too damn funny.

2. Rangers, 84-78
-Can you pitch? If so, Rangers want to give you $100 Million dollars!

3. Angels, 83-81
-In order to get back at city of Anaheim for not releasing them from their naming rights, Angels plan to rename themselves Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Sucks

4. Mariners, 73-89
-This team is the equivalent of a blind retarded guy with one leg. At least they have a nice stadium.

NL East

1. Phillies, 91-71
-Phillies GM Pat Gillick very happy to get rid of Bobby Abreu. Now, does anyone know anyone who can get on base, hit for power and play right field?

2. Mets, 88-74
-News flash: Omar Minaya offers contract to entire Dominican Republic!

3. Braves, 81-81
-Braves still tired from all that winning

4. Marlins, 68-94
-Due to lack of funding Marlins will be unable to convert Joe Robbie Stadium from its football setup to its baseball one. As a result, Miguel Cabrera will now play "30 yard line."

5. Nationals, 58-104
-More News: Nats give Ugeth Urbina 15 year deal.

NL Central

1. Cubs, 87-75
-After spending over $300 Million this off-season, Cubs planning on charging their fans for toilet paper. "You've gotta draw the line somewhere," says GM Jim Hendry. "Whats next? Free catsup?"

2. Astros, 83-81
-I would love to visit the former Enron Field in Houston, but that would require me visiting Houston, so its not gonna happen.

3. Brewers, 83-81
-I can see, sometime in the future, the Brewers becoming a bit like the Cubs. Their fans will show up whether they win or lose to drink, watch Bernie Brewer fall down, and hit each other with sausages.

4. Cardinals, 79-83
-Cardinals are stupid. I hate them.

5. Reds, 77-85
-Bronso Arroyo will a) win 25 games, b) develop a gyro ball, and c) give himself a purple mohawk.

6. Pirates, 56-106
-This team is another blind retarded guy with a nice stadium. Unfortunately, they also have a severe drooling problem. And bad gas.

NL West

1. Diamondbacks, 92-70
-Listen, it really doesn't matter what this team does as long as they're called the "diamondbacks" which is really the stupidest name in the entire universe. Until they come up with something else (how bout 'pantsless turtles?') I will ignore them.

2. Padres, 90-72
-Now, the Fathers. Thats cool. Also, they have vegetarian hot dogs at their park. And they're good too. I had to eat six of them before I got sick.

3. Dodgers, 89-73
-True story: Last 4th of July I attended a Dodgers game. After the game they shot off fireworks (duh!), but one of them must have mis-fired or something because it hit someone's car head on and the car blew up.

4. Giants, 81-81
-Kinda of funny that Barry Bonds plays for the Giants, isn't it? If anyone doesn't get it, check out this picture and compare it to this one.

5. Rockies, 73-89
-Who's stupid idea was it to put a major league team on top of a mountain? Come on, seriously. Fess up.


AL Playoffs
East: Boston
Central: Cleveland
West: Oakland
Wild Card: New York

Boston beats Oakland, 3-1
Cleveland beats New York, 3-2

Boston beats Cleveland, 4-2

NL Playoffs
East: Philadelphia
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Arizona
Wild Card: San Diego

Arizona beats Chicago Cubs, 3-2
San Diego beats Philadelphia, 3-1

San Diego beats Arizona, 4-3

World Series
Boston beats San Diego, 4-3

LOOK AT THE TIME

It sure is late. I keep finding myself up at all hours of the morning, even though I know I have class (and soon, hopefully, a job) to get up for in the morning. Still, it doesn't seem to matter - I can't bring myself to sleep. Its not that theres something exciting on TV or that I have a ton of work to do, although I do.

Anyway, Red Sox... not much to report there, I suppose. The team is finishing up spring training and heading north. On the way they'll be stopping here in Philly for two games. I'll be up in New York City on Friday, so I won't be around for that one, but on Saturday Matsuzaka is supposed to start for Boston, and I'll be there wearing my "Damon throws like a girl" t-shirt. Gimme a "Go Sox!" if you see me.

MATSUZAKA!

Matsuzaka!

I had the opportunity to catch part of Daisuke Matsuzaka(!)'s start today against the Cincinnati Reds. I was doing school work as well, so I did not pay super close attention, but I was impressed with what I saw. Matsuzaka! clearly did not have his best stuff. That was evident from his placement of the ball compared to where catcher Jason Varitek set up, and the expression on his face immediately following many of his pitches.

Despite that, Matsuzaka! was very effective. He did not allow a hit in five innings of work, striking out six and walking five. They say in spring training that the results don't matter, and that is certainly true. What did matter was that Matsuzaka !was facing the Reds opening day lineup, or at least very close to it, and not one player hit the ball hard off him all day long. The hardest hit ball was in the first inning. After walking Ryan Freel on five pitches to start the game, Matsuzaka! went 3-0 on Adam Dunn. Dunn got a fastball up and just outside the zone, and swung away. He hit a fly ball to left field that, were the wind not blowing in, might have made the outer edges of the warning track. But the wind was blowing in and the ball was caught in deep left field, about 15-20 feet shy of the track.

Matsuzaka! had trouble locating some of his pitches, which led to the five walks. Going forward, I don't see that as much of a problem, though. The five walks he issued today brought his total for the spring up to eight. That means in all his previous outings he had issued three walks total. I calculate Matsuzaka(!)'s spring ERA to be somewhere around 2.11 now (4 earned runs in 17 innings).

This wasn't a big start for Matsuzaka. Its the spring, he was facing an NL team, and Manny and Oritz weren't there. But its better to pitch well than not to.

Next Saturday I'm going to get chance to see his Matsuzaka!-ness up close and personal when the Red Sox make their annually inexplicable two game trip to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. Yours truly will be in the upper deck, along with four or five other Red Sox fans, to cheer Matsuzaka! along. I'll try to get there early and take some pictures.

CLEMENS: WHAT IS THE DEAL WITH THAT?

I checked the newspapers this morning and there were three different articles that included significant parts about Roger Clemens and which team he was going to pitch for this season. As everyone knows, Clemens is "undecided" about whether or not he is even going to pitch in 2007, let alone which team he will pitch for.

Nobody seems to take Clemens latest comments, that he is leaning "80%" towards retirement, very seriously. It seems pretty well established that he will pitch this season. The only question is who he will pitch for. The candidates are the same as last year:

1. Clemens' hometown Houston Astros, with whom he has pitched for the past three seasons (2004-2006).
2. The New York Yankees, with whom Clemens was with for five seasons (1999-2003), and last pitched for in 2003
3. The Boston Red Sox, with whom Clemens was with for thirteen seasons (from 1984-1996), and the team he is most likely at this point to represent in the Hall of Fame.
   

Last season, Clemens reportedly had eliminated the Yankees from consideration and was very close to choosing the Red Sox, before deciding to return to Houston.

This season, like last, Clemens would improve all of the above teams. The Astros probably need him the most, though it is questionable whether or not Clemens would be able to pull the team into the playoffs again. The Astros hitting is not looking promising, and with Brad Lidge getting lit up (again) this Spring Training, the bullpen may not be the strength that it was in seasons past.

Further, the Astros lost Andy Pettitte to the Yankees this past off-season, and after Roy Oswalt, their rotation looks weaker than in recent years. Clemens can have the largest impact in Houston by coming in as the team's best or second best starter. The Astros playoff hopes are seemingly pinned on Clemens returning to his hometown for another season.

On paper, the Yankees don't need Clemens nearly as much as Houston does. Thats not to say they wouldn't be able to put him to good use though. With Pettitte returning, the re-signing of Mike Mussina, and the talented yet confusing (how can a guy pitch so well without striking anyone out?!?) Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees rotation goes five deep.

That said, cracks are already starting to form. Kei Igawa, a talented pitcher whom the Yankees brought over from Japan, has had problems this spring.** Due to a small muscle tear, Wang will start the season on the disabled list. Pettitte was shut down recently because of back spasms. Mussina is 38 years old, and is at risk to get hurt at some point this season. Carl Pavano, who hasn't pitched real innings in two seasons, is now slated to be the Yankees opening day starter. This is partially because of timing and availability, but it also speaks to the tenuous state of the starting rotation in New York.

Adding Clemens would, assuming health in the rotation, allow the Yankees to either make a trade, or move someone to the bullpen. But it's entirely possible that Clemens could simply replace an injured pitcher. The Yankees have five good-to-decent starters, but there are health (Pettite, Wang, Mussina, Pavano) and quality (Pavano, Igawa) concerns for each. Clemens has neither concern, and as such, would be a big pickup for New York. In the middle of the season Clemens could be the final piece to the puzzle in New York.

Up until recently (as in two days ago), the Red Sox had one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball. It featured Curt Schilling, Daiske Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Jon Papelbon, and Tim Wakefield. But, with the recent move of Papelbon to the bullpen, Wakefield moves up to the #4 spot, and Julian Tavarez moves from the bullpen into the #5 spot. Wakefield may have been the best fifth starter in baseball, but he definitely isn't the best fourth starter, and Tavarez may be one of the worst fifth starters in baseball. While moving Papelbon may have been necessary, it opened up a huge hole in the rotation.

The Red Sox do have other options. Lefty John Lester is recovering well from the cancer he was diagnosed with at the end of last season. He has been throwing well in Spring Training and looks like he will start the season with AAA Pawtucket as their #1 starter. If he does well, he could earn a call-up to the Red Sox within a month. Other options include Devern "The Sack" Hansack, another young pitcher who is scheduled to begin the season at AAA. Hansack has pitched very well this spring, throwing three scoreless innings yesterday against Baltimore.

Still, for a team looking to win this season, Clemens would be preferable to Lester or "The Sack." Boston is the only team of the three where, as things stand today, Clemens would not be responsible for "fixing" the rotation single-handedly. He could slot in somewhere between #2 and #4, and with comparatively minimal pressure.

There is also the history angle. Clemens currently co-holds the Red Sox team record for wins with Cy Young (192). Boston is the team he came up with, and the organization he was with for 14 years. He maintains relationships with friends in Boston to this day, and was reportedly very moved by the way the Red Sox went after him before last season. All things being equal, it is likely that Clemens would chose to end his career where he began it.

But all things won't be equal, and my guess is Clemens will make his decision based on three things: 1) how much money he is offered, 2) where the teams are in the standings/what their post season chances look like at the time, and 3) other intangible elements, such as how close to home he'll be, what perks the teams are willing to let him have, how much he values returning to Boston or New York, etc.

The only thing for certain is that all by himself Clemens can move the balance of power in the American League East. If he wants to. Its going to be interesting.

**I have noticed in the articles about Igawa and Matsuzaka, both pitchers have remarked that when they get their pitches up in the zone they get blasted. This is not a surprise to me - its true of pretty much every major league pitcher - but it clearly is a surprise to them. This makes me think that one of the differences between American and Japanese baseball is the talent to hit balls up in the zone. When a batter swings at a fastball up and makes contact he will often hit it a long way. Even as a lousy batter in high school, I knew that one way to elevate the ball, which I was not strong enough to do on my own, was to hit balls up in the zone. Apparently, in Japan one can get away with throwing balls up in the zone, whereas in the majors, those balls get crushed. Matsuzaka and Igawa are learning this now. The question is how much do they depend on throwing high strikes to get outs.

JENKINS: HOYA'S JEFF GREEN IS GOD, KING, PRINCE, AND JANITOR OF ALL CLUTCHNESS

Georgetown's Jeff Green shoots over Vanderbilt's Ross Neltner during the second half of their NCAA East Regional basketball game Friday, March 23, 2007 in East Rutherford, N.J. Georgetown won 66-65. (Caption & Photo stolen from AP/Winslow Townson)

Columnist Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post has a doozy up today. And by "doozy" I mean a piece of crap with many inaccuracies which I will detail below.

Just a note: I sent this to the fine folks at Fire Joe Morgan, so if they post all or part of this, that is more than fine with me.

But first, allow me to set the stage. Georgetown and Vanderbilt Universities are playing a basketball game to see who will get to be in the final 8 of the NCAA men's college basketball tournament. With about 16 seconds left Vanderbilt scores a basket and is up by one point. Georgetown gets the ball. After a timeout, they bring the ball in bounds and pass it around a bit. The time is winding down and they pass it to their best player who has yet to foul out, Jeff Green. Jeff Green gets the ball, dribbles it a bit. Then spins around and, with 2.5 seconds left in the game, shoots the ball into the basket. Georgetown wins.

So, now, here is Jenkins' column from the Washington Post:

The Vanderbilt defenders were so thickly crowded around Jeff Green that only a gray-clad shoulder was visible.

When Jenkins says "gray-clad shoulder" she is referring to the fact that many Georgetown players wear their jerseys over gray t-shirts. The "gray-clad shoulder" part is Jeff Green's gray t-shirt peaking out beneath his jersey. Now here's why this is lousy journalism: Yesterday, Green didn't wear a t-shirt under his jersey. His shoulders were bare, not "gray-clad" at all. This, in my humble opine, is piss-poor. It took me under five minutes of searching espn.com to verify my belief that Jenkins was full of crap. Thats five minutes Jenkins clearly didn't spend, otherwise she wouldn't have written the above line as the FIRST LINE IN HER COLUMN. A photo of Jeff Green last night is above. He clearly isn't wearing a t-shirt.

As Green rose in the air and put the final shot up, his body seemed to perfectly express what it means to be clutch -- the responsibility of it, and the weight of it -- as players hung all over him.

I have no idea what this means. All I know is it's pretty barfy sounding.

This is what it means to be clutch: You still kiss it off the glass, with three guys doing your laundry right on your back.

Ignoring the vaguely stupid laundry comment, it was a great job by Green to take the team on his back blah blah blah and win the game in the final seconds. Except for one thing: he traveled. I mean, he really obviously traveled. While standing with the ball, he established his right foot as his pivot foot, and then after waiving his left foot all over the place, he takes a step with the right. The rules say you can't do that. Its called traveling with the ball, and when you do it you forfeit your rights to the ball. The ball goes to the other team, and in this case, with 2.5 seconds remaining on the clock, and Vanderbilt winning the game by one point, it means that Green and all his holy clutchness just lost the game for his team.

Yet somehow, Jenkins goes through her whole column without mentioning this. For anyone who watched it, even the muttonheads at CBS caught it. They went through the tape just following the game and it clearly showed Green moving his pivot foot before releasing the ball. I mean, it was obvious.

The Washington Post's Mike Wise, in his (over-done fanboy) column published the same day, actually addresses the topic:

There were cries that Green had not reestablished his pivot foot, and therefore traveled. But basketball minds much wiser than us surmised you can't make a call like that to end a taut thriller.

Who are theses smarter basketball minds? Clearly they don't have a problem with things like "rules." How much time is on the clock? Under a minute? OK, everyone, no more "rules." Apparently its clock-dependent system, like the NFL video replay rule. Except in college basketball, if there is under a minute remaining in the game, instead of all plays being reviewed, all rules disappear. Players are allowed to do whatever they want.

I'm not making this up! Check out the NCAA rulebook, rule 25.164.23-R:

Should the score of a game be close (see rule 3.243-Z for definition of "close) and less than one minute of time remain on the gameclock (see rule 8.5765-P-F for definition of "gameclock") all rules are null and void.

OK, I was making it up. This doesn't stop Jenkins, who, unfortunately, continues:

The final sequence went like this: Green regained control of the ball, found a slit between Foster and Neltner, spun and exploded upward. He one-armed the ball toward the basket, and banked it off the glass.

Ha ha! Silly Washington Post editors. I bet Jenkins is going to have a few words with you after she sees her column in print. With some google searching and some password guessing I was able to find Jenkins' column in its original and complete form. What she really wrote was this:

The final sequence went like this: Green regained control of the ball, found a slit between Foster and Neltner, spun, took two steps without dribbling the ball, should have been called for traveling, therefore losing the game for his team, and exploded upward. He one-armed the ball toward the basket, and banked it off the glass. My editors are stupid poopy-butts with no sense of humor and small penises.

The clutch player simply finds a way to make the ball go in. As the shot dropped, and the final seconds expired, the Georgetown players surrounded their clutch player for a mass hug. One thing about the clutch player: His teammates appreciate him for who he is.

Unlike other players who are not appreciated for who they are. Like Patrick Ewing, Jr. who is appreciated for being Patrick Ewing. Or Jesse Sapp, who is appreciated for being Warren Sapp. Or DaJuan Summers who is appreciated for being Zor, God of Thunder, King of All Booty.

WANG GETS OWWIE, JOINS DISABLED LIST

The first serious injury of the 2007 baseball season (that I'm aware of) has happened. Chien-Ming Wang has pulled a muscle and will spend the first month of the season on the disabled list. This is not the major blow to the Yankees pennant chances that it might seem, but it sure doesn't help their cause. Wang was likely to be named the opening day starter, an honor he earned by being the most valuable pitcher for the Yankees last season.

By missing a month of the season Wang is likely to miss about four starts. Those starts will be transfered to another pitcher, likely Jeffrey Karstens or Darrel Rasner. Both pitchers have thrown very well this spring. Rasner has a 1.50 ERA in 12.0 innings pitched, while Karstens has a 2.70 ERA in 13.1 innings. Those are terrific numbers to be sure, but they are against spring competition, so its difficult to discern without looking into them more how meaningful they are. Instead of delving into the numbers, I'll fall back on Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA projections for these guys. Here they are:

Karstens: 5.49 ERA in 139.2 innings
Rasner: 5.02 ERA in 104 innings

So, depending on how you value spring training performance you could say the Yankees are in good shape with both Karstens and Rasner available to pick up Wang's slack. But if you look at BP's projections, you get a decidedly different picture. Teams that are attempting to win their division usually try to avoid giving many starts to pitchers with over 5 run ERAs.

Just for some perspective, Wang has a 2.57 ERA in 14.0 innings this spring. BP says he'll have a 4.31 ERA in 182 innings pitched.

Even if Wang does pitch like PECOTA says he will, there is a serious drop off in quality for the Yankees. We'll have to see how they do in the four games Wang misses. Maybe it won't end up mattering. After all, the Red Sox and Blue Jays will likely have injuries to their starters to deal with at some point as well.

Just a few days ago we thought the rotations for the Red Sox and Yankees were all set, and just 8 days before opening day cracks in the armor are starting to show.

PAPS TO THE PEN

Job interviews and school crap are taking up my time, but I did manage to catch the Red Sox trading their 4th starter for a closer. For those of you living in a hole, ex-All-Star closer Jonathon Papelbon is moving back to the closer role. Heres a quick look at what this does:

1. Improves the bullpen: This moves everyone currently in the bullpen back a notch, which should, at least in theory, improve the over-all quality of the pen. Not that it was that great a pen to start with, in my humble opinion, but this definitely is a step up for the weakest part of the '07 Sox.
   
2. Worsens (is that a word?) the Rotation: Taking Papelbon in the bullpen has the same domino effect on the rotation, except in reverse. The question is, do the Red Sox have the horses to cover his loss in the rotation? I don't think for a minute that Tavarez is the long term solution. Hopefully, Lester or Hansack pitches very well in AAA and forces a move up to Boston. The darkhorse here is Kyle Snyder.
   
3. Makes Papelbon Happy: This is likely to become an incredibly over-stated point of the move in the media. Its not that I don't care if Papelbon is happy - I do. Very unscientifically, happy players are more likely to perform better. But, if having him in the rotation is more valuable to the team, then that's where I'd put him regardless of what his wishes are. I'm sure if he performed well there he'd be happy. Of course that is now a moot point.
   

Overall, this can be a good move if two things happen:

1. Papelbon stays healthy and effective - remember, its no sure thing he reprises his role as Mariano Rivera-esque closer.
   
2. The team can find other players to adequately replace the difference in innings that Papelbon would have contributed to the team via the rotation.
   

I figure they'll have to get about 100 innings from other pitchers now (170 innings a starter minus 70 innings as closer = 100 innings difference). Depending on the quality of those 100 innings this could turn out to be a very expensive move.

I'm one of those people who thinks the value of a closer isn't 1/2 that of a quality starter. But, the team needed a relief ace badly, so this does solve that problem. But, does solving this problem create a larger one elsewhere? Thats what I'm worried about.

MY MAN MANNY

So, it used to be that, way back in the day, before blogging, computers, the inter-web or dinosaurs, there was a player on the Red Sox named "Trot Nixon." Whenever ol' Trot would come to bat, or run out onto the field, or indeed show is face on television, I would be prompted, to the dismay of my fiancé, to shout out "My man TROT!" as loudly as possible with special emphasis on the "trot" part (thus the caps). When slurred together correctly, the phrase sounds more like "MamanTROT!"

Well, as some of you may have noticed by now, Trot no longer resides with the Red Sox. I hold no malice towards ol' Trot. Indeed, I remain a devoted fan. There will come a time, cursed though it may be, that ol' Trot actually takes up bat and glove against the Red Sox. I have yet to invest the emotional energy necessary to fully comprehend this moment, and as such, I can say confidently that I have no idea what I'll do.

My more pressing concern is finding another Red Sox (Red Sock?) to fulfill this tradition. I can't very well call out the name of an opposing player, which Trot very much is now (at least until his triumphant return). So, I need someone else's name to obsessively yell. Who will it be? Who will be the next poster-child for moronic Red Sox-based over-decibeled repetitive blather?

Well, it was two weeks ago when the answer struck me in the form of an actual baseball. I was standing on the railing down the right field line of Brighthouse Networks Field in Clearwater, Florida watching the Red Sox take batting practice. It was a balmy 75 degrees out on a partly cloudy day and I was wearing my old beat up replica 1946 Red Sox hat - the one with the huge crease in it from being squozen when Mienky caught the ball underhanded to him by Foulke. One of the Red Sox players was covering right field at the time, gathering up the batted balls and tossing them into a white bucket. Someone was in the batters box hitting line drives. One of the balls was hit in the air between where I was in the stands and where the player was. He loped over to catch it, and while he was waiting for the ball to drop, I noticed who it was. It was Manny! No, not that Manny. Manny Delcarmen, the relief pitcher. The guy who grew up a Red Sox fan and dreamed of playing for the Sox. The guy who was burning up the minors when he blew his arm out and had to have Tommy John surgery. The guy who came back from that surgery to make it up to majors and fulfill his dream.

So, long story slightly shortened, Manny caught the ball and I yelled, "Hey, Manny!" and held out my glove. Yes, I'm that old guy who brings his glove to games. Deal with it. So, Manny looks at me, smiles, and throws the ball to me. I can still see it coming at me. Manny can throw upper nineties if he wants to, but this was a lazy Sunday toss. Now, I played a lot of ball in high school and a very little bit in college, so I can catch a ball when someone throws it to me (hitting it is another matter and I'd rather not talk about it). That said, sometimes the hardest plays are the ones you have time to think about, and this ball was moving in slow motion.

Fortunately, I did manage to catch it, at which point I made a weak-sounding very un-manly noise, something from deep within. Maybe it was glee, maybe I had to use the restroom.

I may have been able to play catch, but I was never cut out to be a major leaguer. Still, that moment when Manny threw me the ball was a memory that will last as long as I live, and likely longer than the ball (now where did I put it again?).

So, thanks, Manny, and how do you like the sound of MamanMANNY!

NEW YEAR = NEW DESIGN!

Well, its a new season, I've got new VD, so its time for a new design here at Fenway Park Effects, or FPE as the kids like to call it. Our crack staff of crack smokers has been up all night smoking crack, and this is what they came up with (read: found on the internet). Thanks to Carrie Petri for the design.

In other news, Johnny Demon thinks his team is the best ever. Yay! Also, in the same article Jason Giambi says that he and Demon the "two idiots" are keeping the clubhouse loose. Good luck with that, steroid boy.

In Red Sox news, my man Manny Delcarmen is worried about making the team. Some advice from someone who hasn't been there and never will be: Don't worry about it, Manny. Just go out there and pitch. Remember, you da man, Manny, you da man.

HOWS IT WITH THE EVIL EMPIRE?

Regardless of what the Canadians say, for the foreseeable future the AL East race will be between the two $150 Million plus behemoths, Boston and New York. Always an interesting case study in management ineptitude, the Yankees have recently righted their ship and seem to be stocking their farm system with powerful arms and young talented bats. I can't remember the last time the Yankee farm system was this good. Probably hasn't happened in my lifetime, and I'm 30, so that says something.

The Yankee system was pretty barren through the 90s and into this century. The idea was always to win now, no matter if that was feasible or not, even though it often was. But now NY has Jose Tabata, an 18 year old total stud with the bat, and Phil Hughes who, despite his spring is likely the best pitching prospect the game has seen in a few years. For you young Sox fans out there, Hughes grew up a huge Red Sox fan, so remember, if NY drafts you out of college and offers you several million to play for them, tell them 'no way.'

The fact that NY has such well thought of names in the pipeline should scare any Red Sox fan. The sleeping giant has awoken. Almost, anyway. Whether Hughes and Tabata ever amount to anything is hardly even the point. If they don't someone else will, and likely soon. No more laughing at the Yankees for wasting $40 Million on Carl Pavano, or giving $20 Million to Jaret Wright because there wasn't anyone else available and they needed someone. The idea of bringing up your own players is that not only do you get to pay far less for the same quality before players can hit free agency, but you can similarly avoid over-paying for someone else's mediocrity. Like Carl Pavano, or Jaret Wright, or might I add, Edgar Renteria.

Fortunately, just in time the Red Sox seem to be in the midst of a mini-youth movement as well. They don't seem to have the high ceiling guys that I keep hearing NY has, but players like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Papelbon, and even to a lesser extent David Murphy and Brandon Moss will give Boston the flexibility to either play their guys, or trade them and sign someone presumably better.

The rivalry is stocked, my friends, just as these two teams are getting old and brittle (take a look at Jason Giambi's knees and the Red Sox past August if you don't believe me) an injection of youth awaits just around the corner. I'm looking forward to it.

Post 2: WHAT TO DO WITH PAPELBON?

Papelbon: starter or closer?

The Sox played their game today with Jon Papelbon throwing some good innings and giving up a homer to someone he probably shouldn't have. I didn't see the game, unfortunately, but Papelbon's change from super-closer to starter is very interesting. There seems to me to be very little precedent for such a move in the recent past. Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals is attempting to make the same move, though he was no where near as dominating as Papelbon was last season. Still, I can recall no pitcher having experienced the success that Papelbon did last season immediately switching to starting the following season

It seems obvious that a good starter, a guy who throws 200 innings with a 3.50 ERA, say, is more valuable to a team than a top-flight closer, even one as good as Papelbon was last season. The same goes for Mariano Rivera, who has been almost unhittable since moving into the closers roll just before the end of the past century. Because the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, one would think that the long and steady (the starter) would win the race over the short and fast (the closer).

That being the case, I wonder why Rivera, a guy who is as good a pitcher over the past decade as there has been when he's pitched, has never tried to transition back to a starters roll. Its not like the Yankees haven't needed a good starter in the last ten years. Rivera could have been, had he been successful, the guy who put the team over the top in 2001 and 2003. Likely, the Yankees were thinking that you don't mess with success, even if that success is less valuable to the team.

Rivera is undoubtedly a Hall of Fame pitcher, so its hard to call the Yankees out on his usage. Still, one wonders, if Papelbon can make the transition from closer in college, to starter in the minors, to all-star closer as a rookie, and then back to starter, maybe the Yankees insistence on keeping Rivera in the closers roll has been a mistake.

New Season = New Post!

Its been forever since I've jotted down in this space, but it doesn't really matter much since nobody reads it. Heck, even I don't read the crap I'm spewing here. Which is fine in a way, since I'm so super busy, far too super busy to write here on a regular basis. I love it when people tell you how amazingly busy they are. Everyone is so so so busy they couldn't possibly ever have time for anything.

So, a new Red Sox season is upon us, and for the first time ever I made it down to Spring Training in Fort Myers. I caught Sox games in Clearwater against the Phils, Lakeland against the Tigers and Fort Myers against the Blue Jays. I had the honor of watching...
1) Papi homer over my head into a drainage ditch filled with at least one alligator (Yikes!).
2) A "fight" between the Red Sox and Tigers when Magglio Ordonez was so fooled by a Josh Beckett curveball that he leaned out over the plate to escape what he was sure was a fastball at his head. By doing that he put his head directly in the path of the pitch, which doinked off his noggin. I haven't seen a big league hitter fooled so badly in person before, but Tigers manager Leyland didn't take that into account when he ordered (presumably) Todd Jones (of the East Side Joneses) to throw at JD Drew. Jones threw one behind Drew on the first pitch and another on the second. Thats when the home plate umpire ran him. Leyland didn't like that. Boo hoo.
3) Two triples in two days. Normally, I'm lucky if I see one a year. The first was authored by JD Drew who looked like a gamer to me as he was motoring around the bases, and the second was crushed by the soon-to-be-resurgent Coco Crisp who lined one into the gap and off the wall so hard that it was a miracle he was able to beat the throw to third.

The moral of the story is I highly recommend checking out Spring Training to anyone who is considering it.

The picture above is of a kid who decided that it would be fun to throw grass on me. He wasn't stealthy enough to avoid laughing after two handfuls were on my head, however.

Ya know, this was kinda fun. Maybe I'll start doing it again. But I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.

Go Sox!