MIKEY DOUBLES RETURNS!

Theo resigned Mike Lowell to a three year $37.5M contract (because we're supposed to care about these things). Lowell will once again man the hot corner in Boston, keeping Gold Glover Kevin Youkilis at first base.

I'm surprised at this. I can honestly say I didn't expect it to get done on either end.

First of all, I thought that Lowell would get four years from someone. Maybe he did get a four year offer but elected to come back to Boston, but I kinda doubt it. The Yankees have A-Hole, and Phillies have their heads up their collective arse and so Lowell probably realized Boston's offer was as good as it was going to get for him.

Not that he didn't want to come back (I'm sure he did), but a year guaranteed at $13-14M is serious money. You don't think Johnny Damon loved Boston too? He got $12M to forget about that, and forget he did. I'm sure Mike Lowell would have forgotten too. Thats not a knock on Lowell, its just the nature of the business.

I'm surprised about this from the Red Sox perspective too. If Lowell hits like he did this past season then he'll be worth the money the Sox just spent on him. However, Lowell has never hit like he did last season in his career until last season. If there is anywhere that Lowell can keep this type of production up its in Boston. Fenway Park is made for the swing of Mike Lowell.

But even hitting in his dream park, Lowell is getting on in years. Will he be as productive, or productive enough in three years at age 36? Maybe. The Red Sox certainly didn't think he would be productive enough at age 37 though. Of course, you never know what the market will do, so even if Lowell steadily declines (as anyone without blinders on expects him to do) this deal could end up looking good in the end.

And with that, the Red Sox off season comes to an end. Well, not really, but sort of. You might see a Coco Crisp trade (OK, you probably will see a Coco Crisp trade), but other than that the 2008 Red Sox are pretty much set. We've got six starters, a closer, a setup guy, and one starter at every position. That doesn't mean the Sox won't explore other options. Thats their job. But, I don't expect anything else substantial will happen.

So, welcome back Mike Lowell! We're glad you never left.

RED SOX RETROSPECTIVE: PART 2

This is the second in a three or four part retrospective about the 2007 World Series Champion Red Sox. In case you missed it, part one is here.

***

The End of Spring

Before the starting gun sounded, we had a bit of controversy. Or, maybe not controversy, but… intrigue? Or maybe debate…?… Whatever. Jonathan Papelbon, who the Red Sox were planning on using as a starting pitcher following a season of successful relief pitching (that is, until he hurt his arm in early September), started having nightmares. Hows that for controversy/intrigue/aw whatever? These nightmares culminated in Pap switching back to the bullpen. But more on the nightmares in a minute.

Of course, the switch wasn’t made simply because Paps couldn’t sleep at night. The Red Sox had brought in a number of different candidates to close, but the problem was that none of them could pitch effectively. And this was still in Spring Training. Of the pretenders to the throne, the chief culprit was Joel Piniero who, despite being a good guy, couldn’t pitch very well. He proved this over and over until he was banished to the National League (where he later signed a pretty healthy contract, but I’m getting ahead of myself).

The other issue in play was Pap’s shoulder. After throwing a good number of innings as closer, in September of ‘06 Paps shoulder popped out of joint (a “subluxation”). This lead to a number of medical diagnosis wherein the Red Sox were told that Papelbon would be healthier if he was in the starting rotation. So, the Red Sox obliged, and moved Papelbon into the starting rotation.

Though he said differently at the time, Paps didn’t like it one bit. He wanted to be a closer. Now we get back to the nightmares, which Paps was apparently having because he was doing something (starting) that he didn’t want to do (or so the story goes). One day Paps walked into Francona’s office after some prompting from a teammate and told the manager that he wanted to close. Francona took it to Theo Epstein, and all of a sudden Paps was healthy enough to pitch out of the pen. To read the papers, one would have thought that a tsunami had hit the city of Boston. But, no. It was only the return of Papelbon to the bullpen.

Moving Paps out of the rotation closed up the only major hole on the roster, but it also opened up a new hole in the rotation. This necessitated finding another starting pitcher. The Sox had had some success (minor though it was) in having His Craziness, Julian Tavarez start some games as the 2006 season was spinning in smaller and smaller circles down the commode. As there weren’t many other options and Tavarez had been at least somewhat effective, the Sox moved him into the fifth starter spot in the rotation. The move was widely thought to be a placeholder until Jon Lester proved himself recovered and ready to return to the rotation.

The 2007 Red Sox went into the year with the rotation as follows:

1. Josh Beckett
2. Curt Schilling
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. His Craziness, Julian Tavarez


The Beginning

The Red Sox got off to a great start. By the end of April they were 16-8, and had a 4.0 game lead in the AL East. Conversely, the Yankees were 9-14 and obituaries were being written up and down the east coast. The Red Sox were getting good pitching and good enough hitting, which would become a reoccurring theme during the ’07 season. Mike Lowell got off to his typical blistering start, hitting .314/.371/.547 in April. .297/.402/.615 with seven homers.

Part of the reason the Sox fast start was so impressive was that they did it without many contributions from a good portion of their lineup. Dustin Pedroia was horrible, hitting .182/.308/.236, leading many fans to call for his benching in favor of future Hall of Famer Alex Cora. Manny Ramirez wasn’t much better, hitting .202/.314/.315. Bleah.

Still, the Red Sox kept winning. May saw them go 20-8, improving to 36-16. This brought their AL East lead to an unfathomable 11.5 games. The Sox were cruising. Meanwhile the Yankees were struggling. They followed up their losing April with a losing May, bringing their record to an unsightly 22-29, 13.5 games behind the Red Sox.

It looked like an easy, stress-free summer was on the horizon. Uh, right.

***

Part 3 soon to come...

CABRERA

Heres the thing: if the Red Sox can get Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins without stripping their farm system, they absolutely have to do it. But, if they can only get him by stripping their farm system, then they should think long and hard about it, and then do it.

Why? Because Cabrera is Manny Ramirez, only 24 years old. In the last three years, Cabrera's OPS+ has been over 150 (100 is average, 101 is 1% above average, etc.). Thats incredible. Plainly, this guy can crush the ball.

But, for those of you who don't go to bed with arcane baseball stats dancing in your heads, let me make this easier. Cabrera, playing his home games in a football stadium that plays like a football stadium, has hit over .320/.400/.560 each of the past two years. And he's only 24, or did I mention that? This guy is one of the top ten hitters in the game, maybe in the top five, and he's younger than everyone else on the list. Would you trade for Pujols? Well, this is almost the same thing, except six years younger.

The Red Sox don't have a player like this in their minor league system right now, and thats saying something because the Red Sox have quite an impressive stable of minor league talent. In fact, I can't think of when the Red Sox had a comparable hitter in their system. Maybe you'd count Nomar? Yaz?

There are of course some possible downsides to this, but this is a chance the Red Sox need to take for two reasons. First, this player can anchor the Red Sox lineup for the next 14 years, long after Manny and Papi have passed into retirement. Second, every game Cabrera plays for the Red Sox is a game he doesn't play against the Red Sox. Cabrera is the best hitter on the market. Yes, better than A-Rod. Trading for him would prevent the Yankees from doing the same.

I'm not going to get into who the Sox should give up for Cabrera. I can't negotiate with the Marlins here, and I don't know how they value the Red Sox young players, nor do I really know how the Red Sox value their own young players. The only thing I'd say is be very wary of trading Clay Buchholz. Anyone else, any other combination of players, any sum of money, and it'll be time to fit Cabrera for a pretty new uniform with "Red Sox" across the front.

THE RATS ARE JUMPING SHIP

In news unrelated to the 2007 World Champion Boston Red Sox, the Yankees are experiencing a jailbreak of sorts. First A-Rod heads for the exits, then Posada says he wants to listen to offers from other teams (read: Mets), and now Annndddyy Pettitte declined his $16M option to stay with the Yankees.

I hope you won't think me rude for chuckling softly to myself.

But seriously, this is just too funny. If there is any actual news I'll surely post some analysis, but for now, some library-volume cackling is all I can offer.

SOX SIGN SCHILL

The Red Sox completed something in two days that I thought they'd never be able to accomplish: they resigned Curt Schilling. Ol' Schil wanted to come back to Boston so badly that he took a lower base salary with some incentives.

Now the salary wasn't that low at $8 Million, and with incentives it sounds like he can earn more next season than he did in 2007, but if Curt wanted the full $13 Million like last season then the chances of this happening were very slim. Plain and simple, Curt Schilling took less money to play in Boston next season. He could have got more money and more years elsewhere, but he wanted to stay in Boston and he took less of each to do so.

This is great news for the 2008 Red Sox. Schilling isn't a great pitcher anymore, but he is still a very good one. The '08 Red Sox rotation is starting to take shape. If you slot Schilling into the number three spot, things look like this:

1. Josh Beckett
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. Curt Schilling
4. Clay Buchholz
5. Jon Lester
5b. Tim Wakefield

Exactly how Francona slots the starters will have to wait for a few months, but having six viable starters for five slots is huge. Especially since two of those starters are over 40, and two of them are under 25. This is a very smart move by Theo Epstein and the Red Sox.

Not only that, its great to have the old man come back. Glad to have you back, Curt. Its like you never left.

OPTIONS, FARRELL & FREE AGENCY

This picture has nothing to do with this post. I just thought it was awesome. That is all.

Some notes on a few Red Sox-related off-season happenings:

1. The Red Sox picked up the player options on two pitchers, one expected and the other, well... not so much. Predictably, the Sox picked up the $4M player option on Tim Wakefield. At that price it almost doesn't matter what Wakefield's role will be in the '08 team. He can relieve, start, or both, but the Sox don't have to make any decisions now. They can sort it out later depending on how the rest of the off-season plays out.

More unexpectedly, the Sox picked up His Craziness, Julian Tavarez's '08 option, which cost them $3.85M. I'm not sure where Tavarez fits in on the '08 squad, possibly as an innings-eater out of the pen. I imagine that the Sox feel that they can easily move him either during the off season or spring training if it turns out that there is no place for him.

2. Pitching coach John Farrell has turned down the opportunity to manage the Pittsburgh Pirates (or at least to interview for the job, which he likely would have gotten). What a surprise. Still, this should be great news for any Red Sox fan. Farrell did a very impressive job this season with Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and I'm very much looking forward to seeing him work with Clay Buchholz next season.

***

In the coming weeks the Sox will have to make offers to free agents Mike Lowell, Curt Schilling, Doug Mirabelli, Brendan Donnelly, Eric Hinske, and Mike Timlin. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox brought back half that group or more. Here's a quick run-down on each:

Doug Mirabelli: With the re-upping of Tim Wakefield, Dougie's return becomes more likely. The fact that there really aren't any other great options out there (the list of free-agent back-up catchers reads like a who's-who of players you don't want on your team) makes this an even easier decision. Unless the Sox can convince some decent catcher to come to a World Series winner to play backup, the devil you know beats the devil you don't.

Eric Hinske: Despite playing on a World Series winner this season, Hinske's career has been on a downward trajectory ever since winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. To put it bluntly, Hinkse was awful this season, hitting a is-this-guy-done-? .204/.317/.398. If the Sox think that Hinske can better approximate his career .255/.336/.434 line he might be worth having on the bench again. If not, better to move on. There are other guys who can play multiple positions and won't hit like Mario Mendoza.

Mike Timlin: Timlin was surprisingly effective in 55 innings this season. He wasn't great, but for a 41 year old he was pretty decent. Of course, hitters don't grade on a curve, and theres a good chance that the Sox just wrung the last bit of effectiveness out of this stone. Whether or not the Sox bring him back will have a lot to do with who they see in their bullpen next season. If Craig Hansen is legitimately prepared to pitch in the big leagues and the Sox are actually intent on Julian Tavarez taking up some innings out of the pen, Timlin may have to take his fatigues elsewhere.

Brenden Donnelly: It depends on what the market is for Donnelly... which is a stupid thing to write, because its true of every free agent in the game. Anyway, if Donnelly will be happy with an invite to spring training then I'm all for it. Otherwise, it might be best to cut bait while the cut'n is cheap.

Curt Schilling: As much as I'd like this to happen, I think its unlikely. $13M is a lot to pay an old injury-prone fastball pitcher who's lost his fastball. Conversely, Schilling has shown that he can still get major league hitters out, and what is $13M to the Red Sox? If there has ever been a pitcher that the Sox have owed, even after his time with the team was up, Curt is it. Not that an '08 contract will be charity. With the Sox depending on so much young pitching going into '08 its not a bad idea to have Ol' Schil around for one more season.

Mike Lowell: This gets complicated real fast. With Kevin Youkilis able to play either first or third, the Red Sox have some maneuverability, at least in theory. They can go after a first baseman or a third baseman and simply move Youk to which ever position remains unoccupied. But, after Lowell (and A-Rod) there really aren't any good corner infielders to be had on the market. This means that either the Sox sign one of those two guys (and be stuck with them for the long term, or in A-Rod's case the next millennium) or they wait a year and try break the bank on Mark Teixeira like every other team in baseball.

Their other (Third? Fourth? Seventh?) option is to make some sort of trade. Rumor says Miguel Cabrera is available, but you can expect the bidding to start at Clay Buchholz and escalate from there. Is that a good deal to make? Maybe, but its definitely something the Sox should look into. More on this possibility later.

The easiest thing would be to see if a deal can be struck in the three year range Lowell. If not, the Sox need to start looking at other possibilities, like Cabrera, and like A-Rod. Maybe Hank Blaylock can be acquired. Maybe Adrian Beltre can be pried loose. If Lowell opts to go elsewhere, the Red Sox have many options, but many of them will involve some major maneuvering. The road of least resistance is to resign Lowell, and for a team that just won the World Series (have I referenced that enough?) that just might be the right path to go down.

***

Soon, part II of my 2007 Red Sox retrospective. Stay tuned!

RED SOX RETROSPECTIVE: PART 1

This is the first in a three or four part retrospective about the 2007 World Series Champion Red Sox.

***

The free agency signing period is just around the corner, but before I jump all over that, A-Rod, Lowell, Schilling and all the potential trade targets will have to wait one post. So often we are so eager to take the next step that we over look what is happening now, or in this case what just happened yesterday. Who is the next playoff opponent? Who will the Sox sign in free agency? Where will A-Rod go? I want to lend my unnecessary voice to all these questions, but I’m going to wait a day or two. Instead, I want to spend a moment dwelling on the 2007 Red Sox.

At the beginning of the year, I wrote about how I thought the team would come together, and how I felt they were the team to beat. The Red Sox were my pre-season pick to win the World Series (I had them beating Arizona) and they came together exactly as well as I’d hoped.

Not that this took any type of genius to discern. This team was stacked from the beginning. So, just to clarify my own thoughts, I’m going to take a look back, all the way back, before they were the Team That Won The World Series For The Second Time In Four Years.

You may recall the Red Sox weren’t always the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. Nope. In fact, at this time a year ago, they were just another team who had missed the playoffs. Actually, that’s not even true. The 2006 Red Sox were an injury-riddled disaster that went from a solid hold on first place in the AL East to a broken shell of a team in one month.

On July 21st, 2006 the Red Sox whipped Seattle 9-4 bringing their record to 59-36 and increasing their AL East lead to 3.5 games. One month later the Red Sox lost to the Yankees 2-1 putting their record at 69-55 and dropping them 6.5 games behind the Yankees.

It only got worse from there. On September 1st the Sox were 8 games back, and on the 13th they were 11.5 games back. Their injury list read like a who’s who of Red Sox players: Manny, Varitek, Papi, Papelbon. Lester was diagnosed with cancer, and the Sox were forced to run the hideous Jason Johnson out for 29 innings (in which he gave up 26 runs).

The Sox September slide reinforced the need for new blood in the ’07 team, and the front office went about fixing the roster. The Sox let David Wells, Trot Nixon, Mark Loretta, Alex Gonzalez, Javy Lopez, and Carlos Pena (oops!) go. Despite that list, the front office didn’t make many changes. Instead, they brought in younger players with some targeted free agents.

Loretta was allowed to depart and rookie Dustin Pedroia was given the second base job. Julio Lugo was signed to play shortstop, filling the hole left by Gonzalaz, and J.D. Drew was handed a huge check and told to report to right field to replace fan-favorite Trot Nixon. Oddly enough, Drew was even given Nixon’s old number.

To fix the holes in the rotation, the Red Sox acquired the 26 year old gyro-ball throwing Diasuke Matsuzaka from the Japanese leagues. The Sox envisioned Matsuzaka stepping into the rotation and being the number three starter behind Schilling and Beckett. Many questioned the huge outlay of cash, but some thought that Matsuzaka might be one of the best pitchers in the majors before even throwing a pitch. They also moved talented young closer Jonathan Papelbon into the rotation. Between Beckett, Papelbon, and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox would have three young studs.

Based on these large financial outlays, people expected big things from the ’07 Red Sox. I wasn’t alone in picking them to go to the World Series. Still, many thought that the Tigers, fresh off an embarrassing World Series loss to the historically-bad-for-a-league-champion Cardinals, were the best team in baseball. Their young pitching staff had aged a year, and they had traded serious young talent to the Yankees to get the powerful bat of Gary Sheffield. Others thought the Angels or Yankees would be the team to beat in the AL.

There was no consensus, but to me it was easy to see the immense talent that assembled on the practice fields of Fort Myers in late February. In fact, I went down to see it for myself. Not that a fan who catches three Red Sox games in mid-March can glean anything significantly predictive from the experience, but it was plain to see that the Red Sox were a good team.

***

Part 2 soon to come...

JUST CAUSE

Just because the Red Sox won the World Series (again!) doesn't mean I'm giving up over here. The reason for my occasional absences is my new job. Specifically, the time my new job requires me to be at work (7:30am) and the distance that I live from my job (at least 1 hour away). Combined, this means that I have to get up at 5:45am.

Yuck.

Of course FPE will be with you all off season, offering insights that you yourself would never have thought of, even if someone put a loaded poodle to your temple and yelled "Tell me or I'll make it pee!"

One such insight, which is all you'll get tonight because I have to get up in 9 hours and I need my beauty rest (ugly people need beauty rest even more than pretty people), is that the Red Sox should sign Curt Schilling for one year at whatever million dollars.

The reason is because there is no other option available. Schilling might be asking for more than he's worth on a yearly basis, but he's only asking for it once (i.e. only one year's worth). This makes him a bargain because any supposedly decent pitcher that the Red Sox sign will require a much larger commitment in terms of years, and therefore money.

Schilling may be old and he may have lost 8 or 9 mph off his fastball, but the guy can still pitch. He's not going to win the Cy Young next year, but then thats why we have Josh Beckett. Ol' Schil doesn't have to win the Cy, he just has to be a better-than-league-average pitcher, and we know he can do that. He might not be healthy all year long, but thats why we have Tim "A steal at only $4M" Wakefield.

Between Schilling and Wakefield the Sox can put together a better than league average #3 starter who can throw 200+ innings. This is immensely valuable. The Sox can afford this $17M (Schilling + Wakefield=13M+4M) extravagance because 2/5 of the Sox rotation next season will cost them under $1M combined. Lester and Buchholz should be #4 and #5 in the rotation next season, and neither is even arbitration eligible.

With Schilling, the Red Sox starting rotation will earn $36M combined, or an average of $7.2M
a piece (I included Wakefield's salary, but not Daisuke's pro-rated posting fee). With Schilling the team will have 6 starters for five spots, which is high-quality insurance (in case of injury). But more importantly, with Schilling they'll have the best rotation they can have going into Spring Training.

Now, I'm going to bed. Happy Halloween.

HOLY CRAP!!! WORLD SERIES CHAMPS!!!

The Boston Red Sox won 4-3 tonight, sweeping the Colorado Rockies and winning the 103rd World Series!!

Lots of celebrating tonight in Boston and New England to be sure, but there was a little celebration in the Northern Liberties section of Philadelphia tonight as well. Congrats to the Red Sox for a job well done, and thanks for another great season of Boston Red Sox baseball.

I'll be back tomorrow with more here at FPE, but for now

THE BOSTON RED SOX ARE THE 2007 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!!!

LETS GO SOX!!

SOX WIN BEHIND MATSUZAKA, OFFENSE; TAKE COMMANDING 3-0 LEAD IN WORLD SERIES

With Daisuke Matsuzaka suddenly struggling after five brilliant innings, Terry Francona decided to go to his bullpen. In came Javier Lopez to face lefty Brad Hawpe. Lopez is a decent pitcher, but is mis-cast as a lefty killer. Yet thats exactly what Lopez was charged to do. It was the first time all post season when I've openly questioned what Francona was doing. Hawpe had struck out a billion times in a row (may not be quite accurate) and all on fastballs. Lopez's fastball is decidedly mediocre, while Daisuke's is good, yet in came Lopez and out went Matsuzaka.

That was the beginning of the only rally the Rockies have had all World Series. But, heres the beauty part: it wouldn't be nearly enough. The Rockies were out-hit, out-pitched, out-fielded, out-managed, and just plain out-classed last night as they have been throughout the whole series. The Red Sox rolled behind a ten run performance by their DH-less offense, beating Colorado on the road 10-3.

The Sox got offense from unexpected sources tonight, including Julio Lugo (1 hit, 2 walks, 2 runs scored), Jacoby Ellsbury (4-5 with 2 runs scored), Coco Crisp (1 hit and 1 run) and most surprising of all, a two run single by Daisuke Matsuzaka. In all, the Sox offense has done something that no other team in the playoffs could do and beat the Rockies at home. The win puts the Red Sox on the edge of a World Series title and simultaneously pushes the Rockies to the brink of elimination.

We'll debate Francona's bullpen choices later, but for now, the Sox are one win away from being crowned 2007 World Series Champions.

Jon Lester goes for the Red Sox tomorrow. He'll be opposed by Aaron Cook. Gametime is the FOX-erific 8:35pm. With three hours of commercials on top, the game could run 5 hours.

SOX SHUT DOWN ROCKIES, TAKE 2-0 LEAD IN WORLD SERIES

You could make the argument that the Rockies got lucky. They scored their only run on a hit-by-pitch, a single off someone's glove, and a ground out. The Red Sox, conversely, left baserunner after baserunner in scoring position. They hit the ball hard, but right at Rockies fielders. Somehow it all amounted to only two runs for Boston, but it could easily have been five or six.

This was a 5-0 game masquerading as a 2-1 game. And the Sox won anyway. In doing so, they take the commanding two games to none lead as the World Series goes to Colorado for the first time in Major League history.

As good as Curt Schilling was, and he was excellent, the Red Sox bullpen was better. Between Schilling, Okajima, and Papelbon, there were few chances for Colorado. Their best chance likely came in the sixth inning when with one out, Schilling walked his second batter to put runners at first and second. That was it for him, as Terry Francona went to Hideki Okajima.

Okajima got a ground out to Youkilis for out number two, and a strikeout to end the inning. Then he threw 1 2/3 more scoreless innings before yielding to Papelbon with two down in the eighth inning. Okajima faced seven hitters and struck four of them out. He didn't walk anyone, nor did he give up a hit. In fact, other than Holliday, the Rockies hitters went 1-25 against Red Sox pitching on the night.

After coming on in the eighth, Papelbon gave up a single to MVP candidate Matt Holliday, but promptly picked Holliday off before even throwing a pitch to Todd Helton. In the ninth, he struck Helton out, got Atkins to fly out and then struck out Hawpe to end it. Game over. 2-1 games don't come any more stress-free than this one, especially in the World Series.

The Sox now get a day off as they travel to Colorado. The World Series resumes on Saturday night at 8pm EST with Daisuke Matsuzaka facing Josh Fogg. Since the NL park doesn't allow for a DH, it will be interesting to see if Francona tries to maximize his offense by playing David Ortiz, or his defense by playing Youk at first base. I suspect Francona may mix and match by playing Ortiz at first for the first two games and then Youk would replace him in Game 5 (should it be necessary).

The reason is the Rockies are throwing two right-handed pitchers in Games 3 and 4, so it makes sense to put the lefty Ortiz in there (not to mention Ortiz is maybe the greatest clutch hitter in baseball today, and this from someone who doesn't really believe in clutch hitting). In any case, I bet Ortiz starts at first in Game 3. If Matsuzaka can throw strikes the Red Sox can take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series.

But thats for another day. For now, we can all savor the 2-0 cushion for a day and a half.

More this weekend.

Go Sox!

SOX BEAT LIVING CRAP OUT OF ROCKIES; I GET NEW JOB, WORK TOO MUCH

Apologies for the lack of postings around these parts recently. Just out of graduate school (if you count 5 months as "just"), I started my first post-graduate full time job this past Monday. Its been great so far, but its also been taking up a lot of my day (huge surprise there, huh?), especially since I have the slight misfortune to live over an hour away from my job of choice. This means that in addition to learning everything, my eight hour days are actually ten hours because I have an hour of travel time on top of each. On top of that, the Red Sox have the nerve to keep playing baseball every night and that pretty much kills my day right there.

I'm sure once I get my sea legs about me I'll be able to keep this blog up. This isn't good-bye, nor is it even a hiatus. Its simply me, the writer, apologizing to you, the reader, for not keeping up my end of the bargain.

***

So, how bout them Sox, huh? Game 1 came too quickly for me to post my prediction, let alone anything that would qualify as a World Series preview. Allow me to post-date my prediction and say the Red Sox win in 5.

More when I get a moment to breath. Stick with me, folks.

WE'RE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

Its late and I have to start my new job tomorrow, so I'll just write this:

THE BOSTON RED SOX ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!


HELL YEAH!!

SCHILLING, DREW CRUSH INDIANS, SEND SOX TO GAME 7

How long have we all been waiting to say "Drew wins for Red Sox?" Well wait no more, my friends, J.D. Drew has come through (finally)! With the bases loaded and two down in the first inning, Drew crushed a 3-1 fastball into the center field camera box. After that the rout was on.

Unfortunately, I didn't see any of it. My father was celebrating his 59th birthday and the dinner reservations were for 8pm EST. I asked my friend George to text me with updates on the game. The following are texts I received from George during dinner:

8:54pm: "Grand Slam... JD Drew muthafucka!!! 4-0 Sox bottom 1"
(I yelled something after receiving this, leading the french waiter to ask me what the score was)

9:41pm: "RBI single... Drew again! Read that last line again!"

9:45pm: "Carmona out, 5-1 bottom 3"

9:46pm: "6-1! Ellsbury RBI."

9:55pm: "10-1, I am not lying. This is fucking awesome. Enjoy your dinner."

That concluded the texts, but not the scoring. The Sox tacked on two in the bottom of the eighth against Joe "Why the Indians keep running me out there is beyond anyone's understanding" Borowski.

This sets up Game 7 tonight at 8pm. The starters will be Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jake Westbrook, but its going to be all hands on deck for both teams. The entire Red Sox pitching staff should be available to pitch tonight, with the exception of Curt Schilling. Same goes for the Indians, who also won't have Curt Schilling.

More tomorrow if I get a moment. If not, here's the obligatory sign-off. This isn't over. Not by a long shot.

LETS GO SOX!!!

GAME 6: ELIMINATION GAME 2: PUTTING IT ALL ON THE TABLE

This series has been a seemingly never-ending succession of one-act plays, each more important than the last. Josh Beckett authored a brilliant piece Thursday in Cleveland, and now, to mix my metaphors into a delicious sauce, the baton has been passed to Curt Schilling. It will be up to him to keep the series, and the Red Sox season, alive.

Just as I wrote about Game 5, the Red Sox need to treat this game as the end of the world (no, not really, Manny). If Schilling doesn’t have it, that fact needs to be discerned as early as possible in order that the damage inflicted is minimal.

All conventions need to go out the window. There is no pride or shame in this game, only winning and losing. If Schilling runs into an especially tough patch in the fourth inning and Terry Francona decides he’s done enough on the day, he shouldn’t be afraid to bring in Jonathan Papelbon if the situation calls for him simply because tonight's game means the season.

***

Indians starter Fausto Carmona, all of 23 years old, spent the vast majority of last season in the minor leagues. He threw roughly 100 innings over three levels last year (including a rough stint as Cleveland’s closer). This year, he’s already thrown well over 200 innings. This represents a violent jump in usage, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Carmona’s performance began to lag under the vastly increased workload.

As well as Carmona has pitched this year, and he has pitched incredibly well, he may not be ready for the pressure of this game just as his body may be wearing down some. This may be nothing, or it may be an advantage for Boston. We’ll see tonight.

While the Sox ultimately won Game 5 handily, they had C.C. Sabathia on the ropes all evening long and seemingly couldn’t put him away. The Sox will likely not get as many chances against Carmona, but they will likely get some. How well they take advantage of those chances may be the difference between playing a Game 7 or not.

***

In other news, Francona hinted that he might alter the lineup and bring in Jacoby Ellsbury for the perpetually struggling Coco Crisp. Potentially removing Crisp makes me wonder how important Crisp’s knowledge of Fenway’s center field is. Schilling is a decided fly ball pitcher, and unless he happens to have a killer split going tonight, its unlikely he’ll strike many people out. So, by modus ponens (if ‘a’ then ‘b’; a, therefore b) there will likely be many fly balls lofted towards center field by Indians hitters as long as Schilling is in the game.

Ellsbury doesn’t lack for range, but he does lack familiarity with areas such as the Triangle in center and the confluence of the Green Monster with the center field wall, which can shoot balls along the wall towards right field (and past unsuspecting center fielders). The question Mr. Francona must answer is how valuable is the difference between Crisp’s knowledge and Ellsbury’s and is that difference greater than the value of the difference between their respective batting abilities.

I will go on record as being in favor of the switch as Carmona’s decided ground ball tendencies will likely continue to stymie Crisp’s hitting. (At this point it appears the Indians could put a peach and a wheel of cheese on the mound and they would stymie Crisp’s hitting abilities.) On the other hand, Ellsbury is so fast that he can actually beat out routine ground balls for hits. I have actually seen him do this. Whats more, in a game where the Sox are going to need every run they can get, Ellsbury’s ability to get an extra step or two compared to Crisp could be the difference between scoring and being called out at home.

It should be an interesting game. The Sox have begun to claw their way back, and they can even the series tonight. This thing isn’t over yet. Not by a long shot.

GO SOX!!!

THEY DID IT AGAIN

In last night's post I mentioned Indians fans waving '2007 World Series' towels during the game. I tried to find a good picture, but I couldn't. The best I could do was this:


You can see some of the towels in question being waved by fans. Unfortunately, you can't read what they say at all.

But, as if that weren't enough, more evidence of the Indians hubris has poured in to FPE HQ. After yesterday's ridiculous '2007 World Series' towel waving, comes a report from the paper of record in Cleveland, the Plain Dealer, about 'Cleveland Indians 2007 World Series' t-shirts which are now for sale in and around Cleveland.

Again: huh?!? Apparently its been so long for Indians fans that they've forgotten it takes four wins to advance to the World Series, not the three they currently have.

Ridiculous. If anyone has a photo of either the t-shirt or the towel, kindly post it in the comments section.

BECKETT IS NAILS: SOX WIN, TAKE SERIES BACK TO BOSTON

Tonight, Beckett put the whole team on his back and took them the 638 miles back to Boston. He was helped along by Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, who homered over the left field wall in the top of the first to give the Red Sox a 1-0 lead. The Indians only run of the night tied up the game in the bottom of the inning. Sizemore hit a bloop double, Cabrera singled, and Hafner grounded into a double play.

After that, Beckett put the clamps on. No Indians crossed the plate the rest of the night. It was all Boston from there on in. The Sox cruised to a 7-1 win, and the series heads back to Boston for Game 6 on Saturday night. Curt Schilling will face Fausto Carmona in a rematch of Game 2.

More on this match up and the game later.

***

I did want to note something though. During the ninth inning when Papelbon was putting the screws to the Indians, FOX showed a close up of one dejected Indians fan in the stands. He was holding one of the white towels that Cleveland fans had been maniacally waving all night. The towel had, "2007 World Series" imprinted on it.

Um, are you F'n kidding me? The Indians are up 3 games to 1 heading in to Game 5 of the American League Championship Series, and all their moron fans are waving around 2007 World Series towels? Is everyone in Cleveland mentally deficient? You don't get World Series towels until you actually make it to the World Series!

When I posted earlier that I thought the Red Sox would win the series in five games a friend of mine accused me of inciting the Baseball Gods. He said my act of hubris (presumably picking my team to win) would be negatively reflected upon the Sox. I disagreed, saying that I only posted what I thought, and it was not an act of hubris. Well, even if my post was hubris, it pales in comparison to this. If there ever was an act of hubris, waiving World Series towels in the fifth game of the ALCS is it. Thats simply asking for it.

So, not only did the Red Sox dominate the Indians and bring the series back to Boston for Game 6, but 48,000 stupid Indians fans turned the Baseball Gods against their team as well.

***

Of course, none of this means crap if Curt Schilling doesn't throw a good game on Saturday. The Sox have shown they are patient enough to hit Carmona, at least a little bit. Carmona is likely at least somewhat tired due to his huge workload this season. The difference will be how Schilling pitches. Can he shut down the Indians? Can he keep the game close and give the Sox a chance to win?

We'll find out the answers to these and many other questions on Saturday, but for now, the Sox are taking this thing back to Boston. Theres some fight left in us after all. This thing isn't over yet. Not by a long shot.

LETS GO SOX!!

GAME 5: ELIMINATION GAME 1: HOW THE SOX WIN

This is it, Part I.

The Sox have dug themselves a huge hole and now we all get the pleasure of watching them dig themselves out. Josh Beckett and his back problems will pitch for Boston with the season in the balance. A good performance from a starting pitcher should be a good step towards a win, but the Sox haven't had one of those (a win or a good performance from a starter, take your pick) since Beckett last pitched in Game 1 of this series.

So, for fun, lets construct a scenario where the Red Sox come back and beat Cleveland. Here's what happens and why:

Game 5: Sabathia has thrown 250.1 innings on the season, and his arm is tired. He is moderately effective early, but tires in the middle innings. Manny does some damage and the Sox take a 4-1 lead. Josh Beckett's back tightens up and he is out after 7 despite pitching well. Okajima and Papelbon come on to preserve the game. Sox win, 4-2.

Game 6: The series returns to Boston where Curt Schilling faces Fausto Carmona. Carmona threw 102 innings last year, and so far this year he's thrown 228 (post season plus regular season). He was less effective last time out and that trend continues here. The Sox hit him hard and he doesn't last through the fourth. Schilling himself is less than perfect, but he goes six and leaves with the Sox up 7-3. Cleveland mounts a comeback against the back end of the Boston pen, but Papelbon comes on (again) to save the day. Sox win, 8-6.

Game 7: Matsuzaka vs. Westbrook. Westbrook's sinker doesn't sink as much, and the Sox hit him hard too. He doesn't get out of the fourth. Matsuzaka does his typical dance with death, but ends up throwing five decent innings. He leaves with the Sox up 5-3. The Indians come back to tie it up off of our middle relief, but Manny and Big Papi make sure that the Sox win this one. Sox win, 7-5.

Seems plausible, right? We take the first step tonight. This one isn't over. Not by a long shot.

LETS GO SOX!!

CLOSE BUT NOT OVER

The Sox pitching staff, the rock upon which their 96 victory regular season performance was built, has performed badly in this series. I'm not sure what the story is behind that, but its certainly not something I was expecting, nor was it something that anyone who analyzed the series beforehand could reasonably expect. It would be like me saying before the series started that Travis Hafner would strike out 12 times with zero hits in four games (I'm just making that number up, I have no idea how many times he's struck out). Not only would there be little basis for saying it, but there would be ample historical evidence (Hafner's entire season and indeed his whole career) to point to against it.

But thats the thing about a short series (yes, seven games is very short). Just about anything can happen, and having the better team is no guarantee of winning, just as how having the worst team in the majors is no guarantee of losing.

Could the Red Sox still come back? Absolutely they could. Will they? I'd say they have a pretty lousy chance of doing so, simply because winning three games in a row while facing Sabathia and Carmona would seem unlikley. But of course it could happen.

If Sabathia and Carmona pitch like they did earlier in the series than the Sox have a decent shot to even things up. But first they have to win tomorrow. When you're facing elimination, it doesn't make any sense to start planning for the future because if you don't win now there won't be any future anyway.

To that end, the Sox need to ride Beckett for as long as he is useful. If that is ten innings, so be it. If its only two, then they need to get him out of there with as minimal damage as possible. Utilize Papelbon for two innings if need be. Put Okajima in for 2 2/3 innings if they need to.

If the score is 4-2 (doesn't matter who is ahead) in the seventh, and they need to go to the bullpen, the only two guys they need to chose between at that point are Okajima and Papelbon. Once those guys have thrown enough, then you move on to the rest of the pen if need be, but not before. Its time to stop putting your trust in guys who you think can do the job and start relying heavily on guys you know can do the job.

That, and they'll need the Indians bullpen to help them out. More Borowski and less Betancourt should do the trick.

PANIC TIME

Its hard to be optimistic after tonight's performance. It was a tremendously disappointing and dispiriting one.

I really don't feel like rehashing the whole game which is probably fine because I really doubt you feel like reading about it. Wakefield was fine until unraveling in the fifth. Thats where the game turned. Francona brought in Manny Delcarmen and he was terrible. Let me say that again. He was terrible. I love Manny, but you just can't have relief pitching like that in playoff game. He took a bad inning and made it a horrendous one.

But thats all in the past. All that matters now is Thursday's game. Josh Beckett will get the ball with the season on the line. He must pitch well or we're done. Simple as that.