Wednesday, November 07, 2007

CABRERA

Heres the thing: if the Red Sox can get Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins without stripping their farm system, they absolutely have to do it. But, if they can only get him by stripping their farm system, then they should think long and hard about it, and then do it.

Why? Because Cabrera is Manny Ramirez, only 24 years old. In the last three years, Cabrera's OPS+ has been over 150 (100 is average, 101 is 1% above average, etc.). Thats incredible. Plainly, this guy can crush the ball.

But, for those of you who don't go to bed with arcane baseball stats dancing in your heads, let me make this easier. Cabrera, playing his home games in a football stadium that plays like a football stadium, has hit over .320/.400/.560 each of the past two years. And he's only 24, or did I mention that? This guy is one of the top ten hitters in the game, maybe in the top five, and he's younger than everyone else on the list. Would you trade for Pujols? Well, this is almost the same thing, except six years younger.

The Red Sox don't have a player like this in their minor league system right now, and thats saying something because the Red Sox have quite an impressive stable of minor league talent. In fact, I can't think of when the Red Sox had a comparable hitter in their system. Maybe you'd count Nomar? Yaz?

There are of course some possible downsides to this, but this is a chance the Red Sox need to take for two reasons. First, this player can anchor the Red Sox lineup for the next 14 years, long after Manny and Papi have passed into retirement. Second, every game Cabrera plays for the Red Sox is a game he doesn't play against the Red Sox. Cabrera is the best hitter on the market. Yes, better than A-Rod. Trading for him would prevent the Yankees from doing the same.

I'm not going to get into who the Sox should give up for Cabrera. I can't negotiate with the Marlins here, and I don't know how they value the Red Sox young players, nor do I really know how the Red Sox value their own young players. The only thing I'd say is be very wary of trading Clay Buchholz. Anyone else, any other combination of players, any sum of money, and it'll be time to fit Cabrera for a pretty new uniform with "Red Sox" across the front.

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