FENWAY PARK EFFECTS

Going To Fenway

2009-03-30T08:00:00.002-05:00

The wife and I are headed up to Fenway Park for Opening Day this year. I won the on-line lottery and snuck in under the wire to grab some of the last two tickets available to this year's first game. I'm assuming they were some of the last two tickets available, because they're located about as far from home plate as one can be in Fenway, which is to say far enough to note, but not far enough to complain about. Plus how can you complain about going to Opening Day at Fenway?

It's strange to say, but as a 33 year old, I find that traveling to Fenway is a bit like Christmas was as a kid. You always know how many days away it is. Ask a ten year old (who celebrates Christmas) how far away it is and chances are you'll get an answer similar to asking a mathematician what pie is.

After the seemingly endless Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, and a winter that seems to have taken even longer, this season can't start quickly enough. And I'm fortunate enough to be able to be there.

WIN #2: DICEK DOMINATES; UMPS COMPARE BOOGIE SIZE, IGNORE TEKS HOMER

2008-04-02T14:04:00.001-05:00

Dicek was on yesterday in a way we haven't really seen since the beginning of last season when he single-handedly slayed the Royals in KC. Actually, it took him until the second inning after giving up a right field dong to Jack Cust (of the Minor League Custs) to start dealing, but deal he did, striking out tons of the batters he faced (I don't have the numbers in front of me - I think he K'd 9) before getting close to 100 pitches and being removed by Terry Francona, who probably wouldn't approve of this run-on sentence.

Still, it was good to see him pitch that well, in light of Beckett and Schilling getting hurt (though hardly equally) and especially in light of the way he pitched in Japan. We can only hope that this signals the beginning of an extended stretch of quality pitching, rather than an isolated outing.

Youuuk also had a banner day, getting three hits including a triple that maybe, probably should've been caught by Emil Brown in left. Brown backed up to the wall and then leapt but the ball traveled just over his glove, caromed off the wall and back towards the infield allowing the ever speedy Youuuk three bases.

An odd play was Jason Varitek's two-run-homer-turned-one-run-double in seventh. The ball hit above the yellow 'homer' line above the out of town scoreboard. Balls that hit above that line, again, like Tek's, are homers, balls below remain in play, but four umps on the field and not one of them saw the ball hit above the yellow line. Makes you wonder what it was they were looking at.

Ump #1: "Man, this sure is a great booger... I hope I don't ever have to throw it away..."

Ump #2: "Hmmm... did I leave the stove on? Naw... well...? Noo... well? Hmmm..."

Ump #3: "Theres Johnson staring at his boogers again."

Ump #4: "Wow! Tek really got into that Oh! An eastern yellow-breasted robin!"

MORE FUN WITH TOM GORDON'S ERA

2008-04-01T12:00:00.000-05:00

I did a little research and believe it or not, the number 135 is a few other things besides Tom Gordon's ERA. 135 is:

a highway that goes through Topeka, Kansas.
an astrological aspect called a "sesquiquadrate," meaning when two planets are 135 degrees apart.
the name of standard 35mm film.
the number of prime numbers between the number 1,000 and the number 2,000.
the year King Espander took the thrown from Menander I in the Indo-Greek Kingdom. Thats 135 BC.
high enough that there is not a corresponding element on the periodic table.
200 less than the 335 years war, which lasted 335 years.
35 years longer than the hundred years war, which lasted 116 years.
the number of people killed in a truck bombing in Bagdad on February 4th.
the number of different kinds of PCDFs (no, I have no idea what a PCDF is).
the number of thousands of dollars which will be required to buy a flying saucer house in Tennessee. Seriously: http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2008/03/21/tennessee-flying-saucer-house-sells-for-135k/
is CXXXV in roman numerals.

IN LIEU OF SOMETHING BETTER...

2008-04-01T09:45:00.001-05:00

I.e a Red Sox game...

The Red Sox were on hiatus last night, waiting in Oakland for yet another Opening Day ceremony,so I made a point of watching some non-Red Sox Opening Day baseball. If yesterday was any indicator, an exciting season is in front of us.

I didn't get to watch all day (unfortunately), but I did flip around after I got home from work, and there seemed to be a large number of firemen setting fires in the later innings.

Maybe the most enjoyable moment was the utter predictability of watching Eric Gagne reprise his role as Game Destroyer Extraordinaire by blowing a three run lead to the Cubs in the ninth inning. The Cubs and Brewers went into the ninth tied 0-0. Cubs phenom-turned-injury-waiting-to-happen-turned-injured-turned-closer Kerry Wood took the mound and promptly gave up three runs. Then the Brewers Manager (Ned Yost?) sent in the team's newly minted $10M closer, Gagne, who proceeded to give up, in succession, a hard single, a four pitch walk, and a three run homer. Mission accomplished!

Then the Cubs gave the lead and the game back in the tenth.
The Cubs weren't the only team to come back only to lose. The Tigers came back from one run down to KC in the eighth inning to send the game into extra innings, only to lose in the eleventh inning. Neither of those games can approach the gut-wrenching-ness of the Phillies/Nats game however.

The Phillies were down 6-2, but came back to tie the game. (When I turned on the game it was 6-6.) Going into the top of the ninth, Phils manager Charlie Manual turned to soon-to-be-ex-closer Tom Gordon. Gordon out-did even Gagne by giving up five runs in the ninth while only recording one out. (For those of you scoring at home, that puts Gordon's ERA at a well-beyond-Gagne-esque 135.00.) Gordon was, rightly, yanked from the game and to my amazement, wasn't even booed on his way back to the dugout. The fans in Philly must have been in too much shock.

I didn't get to watch any of the Pirates/Braves game, but the Braves came back from a 9-4 deficit scoring five runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game. Then gave up 3 in the in the top of the twelfth, then scored two in the bottom of that inning before leaving the tying run on base.

Hopefully the Sox win tonight 12-0, but at this rate, I wouldn't bet on anything.

YOU GOTTA LOSE SOMETIME, RIGHT? ...RIGHT? ...HELLO?? IS THIS THING ON?

2008-03-26T08:00:00.003-05:00

Jon Lester didn't pitch well today, and the Red Sox lost the second game of the two game series in Japan to Oakland. Conversely Rich Harden did pitch well. In fact, the entire A's pitching staff threw well, striking out 13 Red Sox hitters while walking three and giving up five hits. The Sox managed their only run on Manny Ramirez's first homer of the year.

Its only two games in but David Ortiz is 0-the season. It looked on gamecast like he hit one to the wall in right field, but with gamecast who knows.

Anyway, the Red Sox winning streak, which began last October, ends at eight. Hopefully now we can get past this Japan trip and get back to normal.

**

One thing the Red Sox did well last season was avoid injuries. It doesn't appear as if they'll be so good/lucky this year. Already they're missing two of their top three starting pitchers, though it seems Josh Beckett will return shortly, and their starting right fielder. Their shortstop and one of their starting center fielders have spent time on the bench this spring with nagging injuries as well. This smells like a bad trend, but its early, so I'll reserve judgement. Hopefully the entire year won't be like this, because if it is theres not much chance of making the playoffs.

**

The next Red Sox game (that counts in the real standings) is Tuesday, April 1 in Oakland. Hopefully Rich Harden will have pulled something by then.

I PROCLAIM 2008 TO BE THE YEAR OF MANNY!

2008-03-25T11:52:00.004-05:00

The Book of Manny

1:1 And in this, The Year of Manny (TYoM), Manny himself has seen fit to bless us with an opening day win.
1:2 And hey, Manny did look upon the game and see. Yo, the A's were winning. And He was pissed. But not so you'd really notice.
1:3 And he did emerge from the dugout.
1:4 And he did hit two doubles with a bunch of RBI on Opening Day. And lo the Red Sox did win, defeating Oakland 6-5.
1:5 And he did chew gum.

2:1 The Tale of Manny's Second Double: His second blast off the right center field wall was so titanic, so monumentus, so stupendous, that Manny himself was awed by it.
2:2 So awed, in fact, that his legs ceased to function properly.
2:3 Try as he might, Manny was unable to move forward. Only his arms, waiving in the air, worked as he desired. Then the ball did hit the wall.
2:4 Dunk.
2:5 And yeo,
2:6 Manny's legs began to move. And soon he was at second base.
2: And runs did cross the plate.
2:8 And he did smile.

2:8 (Also a bunch of other things happened.)

MATTYMATTY'S 2008 RED SOX PREVIEW!!

2008-03-22T09:25:00.003-05:00

I've been gone a while (as Chevy Chase says, I've been in a facility), but I'm back, baby. Its time for the season to start and I'll be here commenting on the games, the rumors, the players, the owners, the yankees, and whomever/whatever else I feel like. So check back here and see whats going on at FPE. Thanks! --MM

___

The 2008 season started the day after the 2007 World Series. Unlike the off season following the ’04 World Series win, Theo Epstein’s team didn’t experience a massive turnover. In fact, in stark contrast to that once-in-a-generation team, the Sox essentially stood pat. They resigned Mike Lowell to man third base for another three seasons, and they resigned Curt Schilling to what was thought to be a team-friendly one year deal. They also brought back the entire bullpen including side-armer Javier Vazquez and the semi-ageless Mike Timlin. They even resigned back-up catcher extraordinaire Doug Mirabelli, who they then cut.

So, the ’08 team is essentially the same as the ’07 team. Only the questions are different. “Can Papelbon pitch out of the rotation” has been replaced with “Can Curt Schilling get healthy enough to help this team at some point this year?’ “When will Lester and Buchholz be ready?” has been replaced with “Can Lester and Buchholz throw 180 innings a piece this season?”

Of course there are many more questions than that. Most of the questions center around the ages of the Red Sox players. Most of the important Sox players are either under 26 or over 32. This means that most of the players are either improving (i.e. not at their best yet) or declining. Manny, Big Papi, Varitek, Schilling (should he actually, you know, pitch this year), Wakefield and Lowell have all likely seen their best years go by. Ellsbury, Buchholz, Delcarmen, Papelbon, Lester, and Pedroia are all under 26. Generally that’s a good thing if you are trying to compete in a few years, but the Sox are trying to compete now.

Baseball Prospectus’s forecasting machine (yes, I know its not really a machine) puts the Red Sox at 91 wins this year. That might be enough for a Wild Card, but it won’t catch the 98 win Yankees. Other forecasters aren’t even that sanguine on the Sox, seeing them as a sub-90 win team.

Of course, other teams have their questions as well. The Yankees aren’t any younger than the Sox and are also trying to integrate youth into their team. The Blue Jays have their typical mediocre offense and if-they-can-only-stay-healthy-they-might-actually-be-good pitching staff. The Rays are too young with not quite enough pitching (though BP says 88 wins for them this season – we’ll see). The O’s… well, if you don’t have anything nice to say…

So, it’ll be competitive in the AL East, but when is it not? If the Sox play up to their potential, stay healthy, and their young pitching comes through without too many problems, this can be another AL East winner. If injuries slow the team down, and too many players have down years, then this could be a third place team.

So, without further ado, here’s my player by player breakdown of the 2008 Red Sox.

The Outfield

JD Drew

Drew had some well-documented problems last season. However, if you forget his salary for a second (difficult as that may be), he turned in an above average season last year. First of all, he was healthy. If he stays healthy this year there is every reason to believe that he will turn in a better year. Secondly, Drew’s on-base skills keep him useful in the lineup even when he isn’t hitting. (This is why plate discipline is such an important skill.)

However, among the problems last season, Drew’s power disappearing was the most problematic. For Drew to be more than an above average player, he is going to have to hit more than ten or eleven homers as he did last year.

While its pretty clear at this point that Drew isn’t going to be worth the money he will be paid, that ship has sailed. Drew is still a good player with important skills that help the Red Sox win.

Jacoby Ellsbury/Coco Crisp

Crisp turned in one of the great defensive years in center field last year. It’s a shame it was combined with one of the more anemic offensive years I’ve seen in a while. Crisp didn’t get on base much, and didn’t hit for power or average. Still, his defense was so good that he won the Sox two games (not an insignificant amount) with his glove alone.

Ellsbury is in many ways like Crisp, but with upside. This season there is likely to be little difference in their final stats. Crisp will likely be better on defense while Ellsbury will be a bit better on offense. Still, Ellsbury is the future in center for Boston. He has the ability to improve his power and on-base numbers, and if he can do either he’ll be a legit above average center fielder for many years. If he can do both, he’s an all-star. If he does neither, he’s Coco Crisp.

The Sox have been looking to deal Coco this off season, but there was a glut of center fielders on the market, and so a trade hasn’t materialized yet.

In either case, for 2008 the Red Sox will have a good defensive center fielder who probably doesn’t hit enough.

Manny Ramirez

Manny had a down year in 2007. Of course it didn’t hurt the Sox much as they won the World Series (did you hear about that?). For the Sox to be successful this year, they will likely need Manny to return to his old Bad Man self. Whether or not he can do that is the question. BP says he can’t. Manny says he can. In fact, Manny dedicated himself to working out all off season to make sure he would be good enough to have his $20M option exercised. We’ll see. Manny’s slugging percentage dropped about 130 points between ’06 and ’07 and his on-base percentage dropped 50 points. That’s not something you want to see out of a guy entering his age 36 season.

Still, if anyone can bounce back after last year, its Manny. If Manny fulfills Pecota’s prediction and hits slightly worse than last season, then its time for the Sox to say good-bye. As a Sox fan, I have to believe that last year is the anomaly, but you never know when someone is going to hit the wall. Age always wins in the end. Hopefully Manny has a few more seasons of ass kicking left in him.

The Infield

Mike Lowell

Lowell had a great year last season, but theres little question he was playing over his head. The increase in Lowell’s rate stats was driven by an increase in his BABIP, something which isn’t likely to continue in ’08. Of course, Lowell’s swing is made for Fenway Park like few others, so its unlikely he’ll fall off the table completely, but don’t expect another 2007 season from Mikey Doubles. That said, Lowell’s steady defense and his doubles power mean he’ll likely continue to be a productive player going forward. Just think 2006 Mike Lowell.

Julio Lugo

Lugo is a prime example of the dangers of the free agent market. The Sox weren’t able to develop a starting shortstop of their own, so they had to go buy someone else’s. Of course, like Drew, if you forget his salary… wait, that doesn’t work here either. With the caveat that defensive numbers aren’t exact, Lugo had a bad year in the field to go with his atrocious year at the plate. A sub-.300 on-base percentage this season is going to bring Jed Lowrie up from Pawtucket. For some reason, BP thinks Lugo is going to improve both offensively and defensively. That’s not anything I’d put money on. The four year deal that Lugo signed is going to end with him playing somewhere else, and the Sox are going to have to eat some money to get that done. I wouldn’t be surprised or upset if Lugo finished this season elsewhere.

Dustin Pedroia

I’m in the tank for DP. This guy is the real deal. He gets on base, hits for power, though at least some of that is Fenway Park, and plays a good second base. Also, he’s completely crazy. And who doesn’t love having a crazy guy (as long as he isn’t, you know, sacrificing donkeys in the clubhouse or something) on their team? Pedroia is going to be the Sox second baseman for a long time, and he’s going to make some all-star teams in the process too. This guy is better than Cano in NY, and he’s better than Brian Roberts in Baltimore. But then, take what I’m saying with a grain of salt, because I’m in the tank for DP.

Kevin Youkilis

Youk is a great Red Sox. He fields excellently, and gets on base. But he’s not an all-star. In fact, this may be Youk’s last year in Boston. I’m not advocating getting rid of him, but, believe it or not, he turns 30 next season, right about the time when he’ll be getting expensive. But that’s (probably) an issue for another time. For 2008, Youk will be fine. He’ll field well, hit fine, and get on base well. He’s perfectly adequate, if not all-star material.

Catchers

Jason Varitek

Varitek is going into the last year of his contract. Again. The 4 year $40M deal he signed after ’04 looks like it was money well spent. But what are the chances that Tek has four more good-to-above-average years left in him? Probably not good, but the Sox don’t have much choice.

For ’08, as long as Tek stays healthy the Sox will be above average at catcher. If he gets hurt, more than any other position, the Sox will be in big big trouble.

Kevin Cash?

Know this about Cash: he can’t hit. I don’t mean he can’t hit like he’s a bad hitter for a major leaguer, I mean he can’t hit like you can’t hit. Like I can’t hit. This guy simply can’t hit. He’s a fine fielding catcher, but (did I mention) he can’t hit. There is no way the Sox are going to run this guy out there more than ten times before they find another option. I simply can’t believe it. Some teams are dumb enough to torpedo themselves from within, but the Sox aren’t one of them. Someone will replace Cash, but I have no idea who.

Designated Hitter

David Ortiz

Big Papi is getting older, but don’t forget he is coming off his best (yes, best) offensive season ever. If he can stay healthy, he’s one of the top five hitters in the game.

Questions

The Sox offense should be solidly above average again this season, but how much above average is going to depend on injuries (duh) and aging. Is’07 the standard going forward for Manny and Drew? Can Varitek stay healthy? Will Lugo improve or will the Sox be forced to look elsewhere at shortstop?

The Rosey Outlook

The Sox mostly avoid injuries while Manny and Drew reemerge as the all-stars they were before last season. Pedroia and Ellsbury build on last year’s performances, while Lugo rebounds and Youk keeps his steady pace. Papi replicates last season. The Sox score 850 runs and with their plus defense and great pitching they win the division again.

Piles of Poop

Injuries over-take Varitek. Lowell falls back to earth hard. Lugo, Manny and Drew replicate their ’07 seasons. Pedroia and Ellsbury aren’t able to improve on their last seasons. The Sox offense falls into middle-of-the-pack-ness and isn’t enough to push the team into the playoffs.

Da Truth

Last year the team was charmed, not in terms of performance, but in terms of injuries. The team will likely have to deal with more injuries this season (they already are, in fact), but the depth they have accumulated will help them, as long as the injuries don’t mount to an August ’06 level. Improvements from Manny, Drew, and Lugo should offset drops from Lowell, Varitek, and (God forbid) Papi. Overall, the Sox offense should be able to replicate last year’s level of play.

YANKEES: WE'RE BETTER THAN THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA!

2008-02-29T15:07:00.000-05:00

Spring training is in full swing, and workouts have given way to the first games of the year. We've got our first blowouts (Red Sox 24, Boston College 0), our first nail-biters (Red Sox 15, Northeastern 0, wait...never mind), and of course, our first loudmouth sighting. The Yankees (you knew this was coming, right?) Joba Chamberlain, whom it hasn't taken much effort to begin disliking, is setting himself up as the player version of Hank Steinbrenner.

Yes, thats an insult.

Chamberlain, who with a first name like "Joba" obviously has trouble keeping his mouth closed, is talking smack already. Not to the Red Sox (yet), and not to his teammates (that we know of), but to players from the University of South Florida. Because... they... uh... nope, I got nothing.

Speaking at the U.S.F. banquet, Chamberlain said he’d buy dinner to the USF leadoff man if he manages to get on base. One of the reporters asked, 'What if he gets a hit?' “That ain’t gonna happen," said an obviously drunk-with-himself Chamberlain.

Its going to be fun sticking it to this blowhard in 2008.

CONTROVERSY? NAAA...

2008-02-26T12:57:00.000-05:00

If you squint your eyes really hard, you can see a small bit of controversy in Fort Myers. The Red Sox had their latest and hopefully last only semi-controversial happening a few days ago when Coco Crisp, in a disarmingly gentle manner, stated he would welcome a trade if he does not end up as the starting center fielder.

SCANDAL!! RELEASE THE HOUNDS!!

The disembodied voices on WEEI have decided that Jacoby Ellsbury will be the starter based on his stellar output at the end of last year and in the post season, so this means Crisp must be traded. However, the Red Sox have made no such pronouncement. I don't think the Sox would have a problem with Ellsbury starting, but I also don't think they'd mind if Coco ended up as the starter.

Ellsbury hit .348/.394/.530 last year, but that is likely well over his head. He'll have to keep dinking the doubles down the line to maintain that type of slugging percentage. That won't happen, at least not until his real power improves. BP's PECOTA only projects him to hit .287./346/.395 this season, with a VORP of 9.6. That's not bad, but its nothing like what he hit last season, and its not too much different than Crisp's projected .278/.338/.407 and 8.3 VORP. And when you factor in Coco's outstanding defense, the projections get pretty even.

Still, you'd think that the Sox would go with the young guy who has a chance to improve, while trading the valuable veteran. Of course, if Crisp were really valuable, the Sox would have traded him, right? Well, not really, no. Value depends on a number of things. One of those things is quality and another is scarcity. When you have both then you have a valuable trading chip. Think Johan Santana. When you have only one, well, that's when it gets difficult. (And when you have neither, you just cut the bastard.)

The problem for the Sox is that there were about ten starting center fielders on the market this past offseason, and that tends to water down value (which makes the Angels and Giants all the more stupid). If there are ten teams and only one player, that player is going to make a mint, but when its the other way around, ten players and one team, any of those players would be lucky to get a spring training non-roster invite regardless of how good they are. That's an extreme example to illustrate the point, but its a valid point nonetheless.

So, back to Crisp (who's name I keep typing as "Crips"). With few if any teams looking for center fielders, and two center fielders still left on the free agent market (Corey Patterson and Kenny Lofton), the likelihood that the Sox can find a good return for Crisp is pretty much non-existent. GM Theo Epstein isn't going to give Crisp away for nothing, so there you are. Crisp likely won't be going anywhere in the near future, whether he wants a trade or not.

This doesn't mean that Crisp won't be traded later this season. Injuries, both to the Sox and to other teams, have a way of fixing situations like this one.

What I don't understand is why this has to be a problem. From the Sox perspective, they have two good center fielders on their roster. This is injury insurance, as well as both a quality defensive replacement and an excellent replacement base runner in the late innings off the bench. These are luxuries that many teams don't have, and they are luxuries that can help the Sox win games this year.

At some point the market will turn and a good deal will come available and at that point, the Sox will be able to leverage their largess towards value in another area. But for now, both Crisp and Ellsbury can make the '08 Red Sox a better team.

See? Controversy doesn't have to be so bad.

SOX, TITO AGREE: SOX MANAGER TO MAKE 4 MIL PER OVER NEXT 3 YEARS

2008-02-24T19:51:00.003-05:00

There wasn't a lot of mystery here. The Sox wanted Terry Francona to stay, and Francona wanted to stay. The only questions were exactly how much he should be paid and for how long. This afternoon the sides finally agreed upon a number and a length of time.

Francona is exceedingly competent, and unfailingly prepared. Not only does he know how to handle people's egos, but he handles the media and fans with a deft hand as well. Looking past Francona's record in Philly and hiring him after the '03 season was one of GM Theo Epstein's biggest coups. This contract is good news for all Sox fans.

Francona's contract puts him in the upper echelon of managers, as he should be, but doesn't break any new ground for managers. In fact, I think Francona's contract makes it hard for other managers to make the argument that they deserve similar money. There are two managers making $4M a year and they have won two and four World Series a piece. All management has to say is, 'how many World Series have you won?' and the argument ends right there.

While this may not break any new ground for managers, its pretty good for both Francona and the Red Sox.

SPRING TRAINING BATTLES: LETS GET IT ON!!

2008-02-21T15:39:00.001-05:00

While most major league teams go to spring training hoping to figure out a fair percentage of the roster, the Red Sox go into camp this season with very few questions to answer. Due to almost all of the (World Series Champion) roster returning, the Sox themselves do not have much to do this spring training aside from simply getting ready for the year ahead.

There are three spring training battles however. Nobody would describe them as battle-royales, more like royales-with-cheese. And, no, I don't know what that means. Anyway, to the battle stations!

1. Center Field - Barring serious injury or Coco Crisp turning into Grady Sizemore, this is really a question for the immediate present. After not being dealt this winter for Johan Santana, the Red Sox are essentially committing to Jacoby Ellsbury as the center fielder for the Red Sox in 2009.

However, Crisp and his gold glove-level defense* are still on the roster. And, with a number of fly ball pitchers in the rotation and the bullpen, playing Crisp, despite his offensive offense (a term I just don't hear enough of) isn't nearly as bad as it sounds. (The Red Sox won the World Series with Crisp starting through most of the ALCS last season, remember?)

Still, at minimum, Ellsbury is the future in Boston. Crisp has made it known that he would like a trade if he isn't going to play every day, but off the top of my head, I can't think of a team that would be willing to trade anything of significance for Crisp at this stage. Maybe the Twins would still be interested, but they likely don't fancy themselves a contender this year, so trading for a veteran like Crisp probably doesn't suit them well.

Theo is likely working the phones to see what the market is for a good field no hit center fielder. I don't imagine playing one or the other will result in any substantial difference in the Sox record, at least through the first few months of the year. Therefore, Theo can bide his time a bit, and wait to see what deals come to him. In any case, expect Ellsbury to be the starter beginning sometime before the All-Star break, and ending sometime in about a decade.

2. 5th Starter - The Sox were entering spring training with five starters penciled into their five man rotation. Five men for five spots. Perfect. Nothing could mess that up... poop. Oh well. Schilling's injury threw a monkey wrench through that sugar glass window.

An injury of this nature could wreck the season for another team, but the Sox were prepared. Clay Buchholz, who's name I've just recently learned to spell, should be the fifth starter coming out of Ft. Myers. The Sox are making noise about using His Craziness, Julian Tavarez or Kyle "Not Bronson Arroyo" Snyder, but neither of those pitchers is half the pitcher Buchholz is. True, the Sox will have to manage his innings, but there's no reason they can't do that from the rotation.

We know what we'll be getting from Tavarez and Snyder. This isn't to denigrate them, there's a reason they're on the roster, but unlike last season when the Yankees started the year with a record of -8-7,000, the Red Sox are going to need to win to stay in first place. That means getting quality outings as often as possible. Which is why they need their best pitchers to throw for the big club, and not Pawtucket.

Buchholz should be and very likely will fill Schilling's shoes.

3. Back End of the Bull Pen - TGNG. That's Thank God No Gagne. The Red Sox won't have to worry now that Frenchy McSteroids has taken his arsonist ass to Milwaukee. Minus FMcS, the Sox have some slots filled. Which slots are those? Well, funny you should ask. How do you like them apples?

Papelbon, Okajima, Snyder, Tavarez, Timlin, and Vasquez would seem to be locks based on a combination of performance, salary, and service time. That leaves one slot left to fill.

So who will the Sox get to fill that last slot. There are a few contenders to that most precious of thrones. The 'big' names go thusly:

Brian Corey (pros: good control; cons: doesn't throw hard), David Aardsma (pros: throws hard; cons: doesn't know where its going), Craig Hansen (pros: doesn't snore anymore; cons: not a very good pitcher).

Unless Hansen takes a step forward, I expect him to end up back in AAA ball. I think the Sox are going to be very careful with him after trying to force his way into the bigs. Corey is an intriguing option. He seems to pitch effectively where ever he is, but since he isn't a hard thrower and he isn't left handed, he keeps needing to prove himself. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the last guy to make the pen.

*The Gold Gloves are such a joke that I don't even like using them to describe defensive quality. However, by most accounts, both visual and statistical, Crisp played an outstanding center field last season.

WELCOME TO THE 2008 BASEBALL SEASON!

2008-02-14T06:30:00.002-05:00

Time to get our title defense on.

Pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers today. I'm not scheduled to report for another month, but I am supposed to report to work (and write a report), so I'll just say this: it couldn't have come soon enough.

Go Sox!

SPRING TIME!

2008-02-12T18:35:00.001-05:00

Its an exciting time of year here in Red Sox land (also known as 'my head'). We celebrated truck day in the typical fashion, by wearing as much Red Sox gear to work humanly as possible. We are starting to read stories in the Boston papers about players turning up 'in great shape' or 'in the shape of his life.' You never seem to read what a tub of goo someone is, or how many ho-ho's they ate over the winter, or how Curt Schilling hurt his shoulder shoving chicken wings into his gullet at Wing Bowl.*

Yes, the team is assembling for another run down in sunny and perfect (at least for two months before it gets run over by another 'storm event') Ft. Myers. This is the time of year when we all dream, my friends. We dream of the impossible, the downright improbable, and the likely. For example, Roger Clemens shutting his pie hole, Mike Lowell hitting .330+ again, and Johnny Damon professing his love for the Yankees. Again. Still, there is much work to be done, roster decisions to be sorted out, injuries to be accounted for, and predictions to be written, and then denied.

Turning to the '08 Sox, if you didn't know better you might mistake this team for the '07 (World Champion) version. To be sure there are similarities, but there are also differences. Probably the biggest change will be that the Sox won't be relying on Ol' Curt again this year. That's not to say they won't leave the light on for him, but the magic shoulder fairy (Jaime Farr) is gonna have to come down and rub a combination of pixie dust, IcyHot, and horse tranquilizer on there. Personally, I wouldn't expect Eli Manning to throw that touchdown pass again, if you know what I'm saying.

Without Ol' Curt hanging around, the Sox are going to have to patch a hole in their rotation. For any other team that could be a huge problem, but for this team, its just a large problem. Actually, this just proves yet again how smart, prepared, forward thinking, and straight up coated in awesome Theo Epstein is. And no, you can't bring up J.D. Drew. A week ago the Sox were headed into camp with six guys for five rotation spots with Ol' Curt, so some quick math here... carry the two... multiply by eight... move the decimal... and there you have it: now, five guys for five spots. Follow me, to the '08 Red Sox rotation:

Beckett

Matsuzaka

Wakefield

Lester

Buchholz

My non-sexual mancrush on Buchholz makes it difficult to rank him fifth, but I'll get past it. Some...how... *!happy place!* The danger here is that two are very young, and one is very old. To win, we need full seasons out of all those guys. One injury and instead of bringing up Buchholz, we're putting Tavarez back in there, which as we all know, often results in my fist repeatedly banging against things. This is to be avoided at all costs. Not because of the things, but because of my fist. I'm old and fragile.

There are some other options, but the Red Sox don't seem to be interested in trading prospects for 'proven innings eaters.' Frankly I don't blame them. Still, the potential for injury is there, which could serve to derail the Sox title defense.

Another potential problem area while I'm focusing on the negative here, is at catcher. Jason Varitek's best years are likely in the past, but he is still an upper echelon catcher. This speaks more to the league-wide talent level at catcher than anything else. Regardless, the Sox don't have anyone who can step in if (/when) Varitek gets hurt. You want 500 at-bats of Doug "Swing-and-a-miss!" Mirabelli? Hey, I love the sole patch as much as the next guy, but it takes more than well placed facial hair to hit in the major leages. Or so I've read. If Varitek goes down the Sox could be in some trouble.

So, whats the point of all this rambling? Just this: Its spring training time, and I couldn't be happier.

*This would be completely true except for the fact that I just made it up.

GAMMONS = RIDICULOUS

2008-02-04T18:50:00.000-05:00

OK - I'm an idiot. I misread Gammon's blog. It wasn't Gammons who said the block quote below, it was "an unnamed Red Sox official." In the words of El Guapo's Ghost, someone "probably having a beer at the Corner Clubhouse."

So, in light of my lousy reading skills, let me amend my previous post (which I will leave up as a monument to my mistake). Get ready for my...

New and Improved Post: Now With Facts!

What exactly is Gammons trying to prove with a dumb quote like that?

Thank you very much!!

(in light of the above, kindly disregard the next hundred or so words...)

***

Via the fabulous mlbtraderumors.com, Peter Gammons asserts in his blog that Red Sox fans should get used to the idea of Josh Beckett pitching for another team after 2010, the final year of his current deal. The actual quote, in its entirety, is as follows:

We'd better enjoy Josh Beckett the next three years. Because we won't be able to sign him after his deal is up after 2010.

I say the following as a Gammons lover: how the hell does he know? Beckett may leave Boston after 3 more years, but then again he may not. Gammons may know lots of people in the industry, and he may be a first class reporter, but theres no way he can predict the future. That statement is simply ridiculous.

WOW

2008-02-03T22:23:00.001-05:00

That was some seriously f'd up sh*t.

SUPERBOWL PICK

2008-02-03T15:57:00.000-05:00

Who cares about my Superbowl pick. This is a Red Sox blog after all, and nobody even cares about that. Still, for posterity's sake, heres my call:

Patriots 38, Giants 17

Exciting stuff, no?

SANTANA SETS NEW MARK AT $150M+, BECKETT COUNTS DOWN SECONDS TO 2011

2008-02-02T12:54:00.000-05:00

If anyone has any doubts about the contract the Red Sox signed Josh Beckett to one year ago, they should evaporate into the ether after hearing of Johan Santana's new deal to pitch for the Mets. Santana's new deal reportedly pays him $150M (plus a small amount insignificant enough for me not to mention here, but still more than I'll make in the next 7 years) over the next seven years. For the math-retarded (me included), that breaks down to about $21,430,000 per year.

Contrast that with Beckett's deal, which will pay him $9.5M for this upcoming season, $10.5M in '09, and a $12M club option which, except for injury potential, the Red Sox would exercise right now.

But this doesn't really hurt the Red Sox that much. Beckett was always going to get his money if he pitches well, and he's in Boston for three more seasons. A lot can change in that time. Santana's new deal really hurts the Cleveland Indians. The Indians have reigning Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia under contract for just one more season. Sabathia isn't the pitcher that Santana is, but he's close, and he's two years younger.

Sabathia is going to make $9M this year, but he can get more than twice that on the open market. The Yankees and Mets are both going to be looking for a starter next off season, as both have some serious money coming off the books after this season (Pedro, Delgado, and Alou for the Mets, and Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, Pettitte, and Pavano for the Yankees). The Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels could also kick Sabathia's proverbial tires as well.

Sabathia will have to take a serious hometown discount to stay in Cleveland as its doubtful that the Indians will be able to throw money around like the bigger market teams. If that was going to happen though, it likely already would have. Somewhere around late July the Indians are going to have to decide if they can win it all this season, because if not Sabathia could be on the move.

***

In actual Red Sox news, the Sox signed Sean Casey to fill their Mediocre-Veteran-Hitter slot. I'll get more into the roster crunch later on this month, but for now, I'll rank this move as Three Yawns.

SOX DON'T TRADE FOR SANTANA: GET LESTER, LOWRIE, MASTERSON, $150M, MY SANITY IN "DEAL"

2008-01-30T09:28:00.000-05:00

HALLELUJAH!! SANTANA TO METS!!!

2008-01-29T18:03:00.000-05:00

Phew...

GET WELL STEVE

2008-01-19T14:43:00.000-05:00

Even though he literally works for the enemy, our best wishes go out to the terrific writer, moralist, professor of popular culture, and BP and Pinstriped Bible author, Steven Goldman, who is recovering from surgery. Get well soon, Mr. Goldman. You are in our thoughts.

I'M NOT ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE

2008-01-19T13:54:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox are trying to resolve some contractual issues with a few of their younger (read: haven't been in the majors very long yet) players. Chief among those is starting first baseman Kevin Youkilis who made the paltry sum of just over $400,000 last season. [pause to dab at tears...] Youkilis was likely one of the only players who's World Series share was greater than his salary.

Fortunately for Kevin and the next eight generations of Youkilises, this is the season to cash in. Youk is finally arbitration eligible meaning he gets a raise. The way this all works, generally speaking, is that both the player and the team exchange salary figures and if they can't agree then both figures are submitted to an arbitrator who listens to arguments from both sides and then choses one of the figures.

According to the Boston Globe, Youk submitted a figure of $3.7 Million, while the Sox offered $2.525 Million. In either case young Mr. Youkilis should be set for a while.

This whole process got me thinking that while Youkilis is the prototypical Red Sox player, I wonder how long he'll be in a Red Sox jersey. He is 29 years old this year, and by the time he is eligible for free agency, he'll be 32. That means that just as he is getting really expensive, his skills are going to start to drop away.

One thing we've all learned beginning somewhere around 2003 give or take a few years depending on your learning curve, is that the Red Sox aren't likely to settle for below average production from a position too long without making a change (whether that change will be an improvement or not is another matter entirely). This isn't to say Youkilis is below average. I don't believe he is at all, but in three years relative to his salary his production may not be equal in value to what his salary demands will be at that time.

While Youk is great at getting on base, he doesn't have the power that one normally associates with a corner infielder. The one saving grace for Youk is his defensive flexibility. Lowell is signed for three more seasons and one can safely assume that he'll play at least two and likely all three of those years in Boston. After those three years, the position of Red Sox third baseman will come open again coincidentally right as Youkilis reaches free agency.

Lots of things can happen three years down the road. There are a million variables to consider, so it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for me to project that far in the future. But, it will be interesting to see as it always is, what the Sox do. For now, they are set at the infield corners with Youk and Lowell for three more years.

OUR LONG NATIONAL NIGHTMARE IS FINALLY OVER!

2008-01-10T16:57:00.000-05:00

Thats right, Dougie is back! Get ready for another year of Ks from The Soul Patch.

Not finding anything remotely palatable on the market, the Red Sox decided that the devil they know (who can catch knuckle balls) is better than the devil they don't (who, presumably, can't).

You can exhale now.

GUESS WHO THIS IS ABOUT! RIGHT! SANTANA!!

2008-01-10T09:56:00.000-05:00

In his excellent blog on Monday, the internet's Aaron Gleeman went through a semi-thorough explication of the Red Sox and Yankees reported offers to the Twins for Johan Santana and provides his always well reasoned opinion in terms of which deal would be better for Minnesota. (Spoiler alert: NY's offer is better.)

Its a very interesting and well-written piece, which isn't surprising for Gleeman. Probably like many baseball bloggers, reading Gleeman's stuff was an inspiration of sorts for starting this blog. And while I intended that as a compliment, now that I re-read it, I'm not so sure it really is.

In any case, Gleeman consistently does a great job, and if you don't read him on a regular basis then you are missing out. As for his post, while I agree with his analysis, I think he undersells some of the Red Sox lesser prospects who are reported to be included in the deal, Jed Lowrie in particular. I wouldn't mind seeing Lowrie play shortstop for the Sox next season, though with Julio Lugo's increasingly-terrible-by-the-moment-contract that isn't likely to happen.

The truth of the matter to me comes down to how the Twins value the different players, what the state of their farm system is at the moment and what their plans are for the next three to four years, when they would cheaply control most of the players they would acquire in trade. For example, if the Twins think they will be able to compete in their division in two years, getting a single great prospect (Hughes) could be the best way to go. A single great player can push a contending team into the playoffs. However, if they think they have many holes to fill, they could be better off getting multiple above average and average major league regulars, which it seems to me is what the Red Sox deal is about.

One thing that Gleeman nails is that most prospect evaluators regard Hughes as one of, if not the best, starting pitching prospect in baseball. Thats a hard chip to beat, whether you have a hole the size of Lake Minnetonka in center field or not. While Hughes is the one with the highest upside, conversely, its the Red Sox offer, not New York's, that taken as a whole has the higher upside.

I discussed the Red Sox players a number of posts ago, and unlike the players the Yankees have offered, each player the Red Sox have offered has the potential to end up as an above average major league regular. Of course, like the Yankees package, that probably won't happen simply due to general attrition. Lets compare. I'll skip the Lester version of the Red Sox offer simply because Gleeman does.

Phil Hughes vs. Jacoby Ellsbury- Hughes is obviously the one uber-prospect here, but thats not to say that Ellsbury doesn't have star potential. He simply doesn't have the high ceiling that Hughes does, and of course, he doesn't have the burn-out or injury potential either.

Melky Cabrera vs. Jed Lowrie-Cabrera has a lower ceiling, and in a few years he may not even be a major league regular. His body type isn't one that you often see patrolling centerfield, and though he provides good defense now, that will change once his speed starts to go a bit and he doesn't have speed to lose. He'll likely end up in an outfield corner and that means that his bat will have to carry him, and there is serious doubt about his ability to hit enough to warrant playing him somewhere besides center field.

Lowrie could be a starting shortstop in the bigs, but more ideally he'd be second baseman. Still, he gets on base very well generally (a skill the Twins badly need) and better than any player mentioned in either deal, and has some projectable power. Unlike Cabrera, Lowrie will likely stay at an up the middle defensive position, and that has some serious value.

Justin Masterson vs. 'a pair of mid-level prospects-Masterson is a hard sinkerball pitcher who projects as a good set-up man in the bigs. Its unclear which 'mid-level prospects' NY would include in the deal, but its hard to give faceless prospects the lead over someone specific (and good).

Looking at the best case scenario for each player isn't particularly realistic, but its difficult to get a fair handle on exactly what each player will be. From what I've gathered, Hughes could be a #1 or #2 starter, and has ace potential. Ellsbury will likely be a starting center fielder who could make an all-star game or two. Cabrera is likely an average outfielder who will move to a corner in a few years. Lowrie is likely a starting up-the-middle infielder in a year or so who, like Ellsbury, won't be the best at his position (like Hughes could be) but should be comfortably above average.

After that, its tough to say because all the other potential additions are too far away from the major leagues to know. At that point you probably just look at projectability, and Masterson ranks higher than anyone the Yankees have reportedly offered. Now, if the Yankees are offering Ian Kennedy, then the discussion changes, but I'm assuming, like Gleeman, that Kennedy isn't on the table.

Despite all of that, Gleeman makes the salient point that the team that gets the best player wins the deal. If you accept that as fact then you are starting from a losing position when trading the consensus best starting pitcher in baseball in Santana. The only thing that remains is to get the best players that best fit what the team is trying to do and fill holes in your major league roster and minor league system. Otherwise you end up like Arizona did when they accepted what ended up being a bunch of junk for Curt Schilling.

***

With today's news that the Mets are getting back into the deal, the above could be rendered useless. It seems that asside from Hank Steinbrenner, every other participant in this two month long soap opera would rather that Santana end up with the Mets. The Red Sox don't seem too jazzed about giving up prospects and meeting Santana's contract demands, though they will to thwart the Yankees; the Yankees GM, and the lesser Steinbrenner brother seem to be in that same boat. The Mets would love to get him for obvious reasons, and the Twins would rather he end up in the National League so they don't have to face him all the time.

So, if the Mets can put together an offer that compares evenly with what is on the table now, I would expect that Santana will be wearing the light blue and orange come Spring Training.

PLAYOFFS?!?!?!?!?

2008-01-05T09:27:00.000-05:00

Yes Jim-Mora's-Voice-In-My-Head. Playoffs. My team did pretty well when I put up a post over here last week (killed the Cowboys 27-6), so I thought, "Hell, it can't hurt to try again." And here we are.

After beating their arch enemies, the Redskins are in Seattle to take on the surely-over-caffeinated-and-therefore-ready-to-poop-at-any-moment Seahawks at one vowel short Qwest Field.

**WARNING! HALF-ASSED ANALYSIS AHEAD!**

The Seahawks, you may know, had the easiest schedule in all of pro football this season, yet only managed to go 10-6. They haven't beaten a team with a winning record since Week 1 of the NFL season. This is a 7-9 team masquerading as a 10-6 team.

Conversely the Redskins had either the second hardest or the fourth hardest schedule in the NFL this year, whether you go by conventional statistics or more advanced, respectively. They beat a winning team last week (say what you want, Dallas played all of their starters into the third quarter at which point they were down two touchdowns), and they are an 11 win team in 9 win team's clothing.

**END OF HALF-ASSED ANALYSIS**

Thats all the 'analysis' I'm going to put up here, but its probably pretty clear what I think is going to happen. Of course, that counts for absolutely nothing, and I've been known to be 100% wrong about things like this before, right President Mondale? All of which is to say I don't bet on football games. You may as well bet on puppy flipping.

With Johan Santana still in limbo somewhere over the midwest, no new contracts immanent for either Kevin Youkilis or Terry Francona, and nothing overly embarrassing coming from the great toilet in the Bronx, y'all could be stuck with some football posts here for a bit. Or the Skins could get smoked and I'd have to go back to writing about what an ultramaroon Hank Steinbrenner is.

Go Skins!

GOoooooooooooooooKARP!!

2008-01-04T13:17:00.000-05:00

More non-news on the Johan Santana front. (Is there any other front? For better or worse this seems to be a one front off-season.) The in-again-out-again Yankees are in again, as Hank Steinbrenner has declared the team back in on Santana. I'm not sure what being "back in on Santana" means, (they're going to crush him with a truck?) but whatever it is the Yankees are it.

In related news, the Mets are either considering or not considering, depending on who you talk to, giving up Jose Reyes in a Santana deal. Also, they could be giving up the entire worth of their farm system, which, seriously, consists of four prospects. Or they might not. Aren't rumors great?

Of course the World Series Champion Red Sox are still in this too, though Peter Gammons doesn't think they should be. Or more accurately, he doesn't think they should pull the trigger. I can't say I disagree with him. Still, its hard to believe that the Sox have a legitimate shot at the consensus best starting pitcher in baseball and probably more than half their fans are going, "Don't do it!" That speaks to the might of the Sox farm system. Either that or the incredible conservatism that trading Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena has created among the fan base.

Still, as I've stated over and over and over again in unison with some people much smarter than I, Santana is still very likely to be dealt. Unless he drops his asking price by about $80 Million that is. Then the smart money is on his staying put. But the smart money isn't on him dropping his asking price by $80 Million, so he's likely gone.

Theres still roughly two more months until spring training starts though, so expect this to take about 1.9 more months to complete. Here's hoping Santana ends up with the Hiroshima Karp. How many yen is $160 Million anyway?

SHENANIGANS!

2008-01-03T20:43:00.000-05:00

I call shenanigans on Hank Steinbrenner. Isn't it illegal in MLB to discuss a player on another team? Its supposed to be, but Steinbrenner doesn't think twice about opening his fat yap and spewing forth about Santana on a regular basis. Shouldn't someone at MLB HQ do something about this?

HAPPY NEW YEAR: SANTANA UPDATE

2008-01-02T10:16:00.000-05:00

Still no news on Santana. The Globe has had a post up saying the Sox are the frontrunners for a couple weeks now. I covered the players the Sox could include in a deal for Santana here, but its entirely possible that the rumors of the Twins holding on to him to start the season were true.

However, when wondering if a trade will happen, its important to remember that the market for Santana is the biggest its going to be during this off season. This is because Santana has only one more year left on his contract. Thus each game he pitches for Minnesota is one less game he can pitch for a new team, and one less game worth of value that a team would give up for him in trade.

The Twins could look to deal him at the deadline, but again, they'd presumably be getting less in trade for him than they would now. If they hold on to him for the whole season, all they'll get in return is two number one picks. So, all signs point to Santana being dealt somewhere before the season starts.

There is still a ways to go before Spring Training begins, so this could drag out for a while. Stay tuned!

WARNING: NON-RED SOX RELATED CONTENT

2007-12-30T10:52:00.000-05:00

Teams that I post about here seem to do pretty well, so I thought I'd throw up a little Redskins/Cowboys post here and see how fate treats it. No analysis here. I like to think I'm analytical about baseball, but theres not much hope of that with football (though footballoutsiders.com is a fabulous progressive-thinking site).

Its a big week for us Redskins fans. Its Dallas Week. And its not any old Dallas Week, its win-and-we're-in-the-playoffs Dallas Week. I'm pretty much going to jump about and scream like a monkey for three plus hours. I hope everyone else's Sunday is equally enjoyable.

Lets go Skins!

SANTANA: WHO WE'LL GIVE UP TO GET HIM

2007-12-27T13:53:00.000-05:00

The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog recently posted on what effect a Johan Santana trade would have on the AL East standings if he was traded to either the Red Sox or the Yankess. The post also took into account the loss of certain players given up to get him. Its an interesting read. The gist of it is that the Red Sox have a few games on the Yankees to start with. If Santana goes to NY the AL East race becomes essentially a dead heat with the Yankees having a slight edge. If Santana comes to Boston the Red Sox (obviously) increase their lead by a few games to something like a four or five game lead, I can't recall which. These numbers are nothing more than food for thought, but they are interesting nonetheless.

You don't need any numbers to know that adding Santana puts the Red Sox in the drivers seat not only in their division but in the American League. Pairing Santana with Beckett could be a deadly combination in the regular season and especially in the post season for years to come. But, at what price, and what would the extracted players do to the Red Sox going forward?

Funny you should ask. Many different sources seem to think that there will be movement on a potential Johan Santana trade in the next few weeks. Of course, we've been hearing that for the past month or more, but if things are going to heat up soon, it makes sense to take a look at potential deals now, from a Red Sox perspective, and see what affect the different proposed deals would have on the old towne team.

Rather than examine potential packages, I'm going to take a look at the players who could be given up in trade, see where they fit into the Red Sox picture in the next few years, and what the cost of giving them up is likely to be.

Jon Lester - Lester projects somewhere between a #1 and a #3, and as a young cost-controlled left-hander who throws hard, he is a very valuable commodity. But the 2008 Red Sox rotation is full with Matsuzaka, Beckett, Schilling, Buchholz, and Wakefield all on the roster, so despite the fact that Lester started Game 4 of the World Series, there may not be a spot in the rotation for him come spring time. He may still need some seasoning anyway, as his control tends to vanish from time to time. Its conceivable that both Schilling and Wakefield will leave Boston after this season which would open two slots in the rotation, one of which would likely go to Lester. Lester's value to the Red Sox in 2007 is likely that of an injury replacement, but he won't be used to his highest and best value until 2008.

Still, with Santana in hand and signed for about five or six years, the Red Sox would be replacing a potentially good left hander with the dominant left hander in the majors. The difference, besides the quality of the pitchers, is the cost. While Lester, if he progresses could be had for likely under $20M cumulatively over the next six seasons, Santana is likely to cost six to seven times that figure. Is the potential difference in quality worth the exorbitant cost?

Jacoby Ellsbury - Ellsbury is the next great Red Sox center fielder. He cemented himself as a fan favorite with his performance in the playoffs and World Series when he replaced the ever-struggling Coco Crisp, and hit close to .500 in the process. Still, for all the love thrown his way, Ellsbury is not without his flaws. He could be more selective at the plate, and until he shows more power his ceiling is limited.

All that doesn't mean he isn't a very valuable player. His speed makes him among the fastest players in the majors right now, and nobody questions the quality of his defense in center field. If he's able to add some power to his game he could be a perennial all-star, but even if he isn't, he could still be an above average player both at the plate and in the field.
Losing Ellsbury would mean that the Sox would be stuck using Crisp in center again next season (more on him in a moment). It would also mean that the Sox would eventually have to either develop another center fielder in a few years (Ryan Kalish?), or if nothing materializes on that front, go out and pay for one on the free agent market. Center fielders who can hit aren't cheap. Plainly put, losing Ellsbury would weaken the club at the plate in 2008. In 2009 the scenario would be the same (Crisp=little offense) or it would require the Sox to go shopping and spend (a lot) more money.

Coco Crisp - Since coming over from Cleveland, Crisp has both improved and declined. When he arrived many questioned his defensive abilities, while many, including myself, thought that he could at least continue developing into a productive hitter along the lines of Johnny Damon. Crisp has put his defensive doubters to sleep with stellar work in center field, but at the same time his offense has fallen off a cliff. Instead of building on his production in Cleveland, his offense has steadily declined to the point where he lost his starting job to a a rookie (Ellsbury) in the middle of the playoffs.

Including Crisp in a Santana trade would be ideal as it would open up center field even more for Ellsbury, and it would allow Crisp, a classy guy who I've enjoyed rooting for, to start for a potential contender going forward. Even better, trading Crisp would not have much of a negative impact on the 2008 or subsequent clubs, as his position would be filled cheaply by Ellsbury who should have little problem replicating Crisp's production both offensively and defensively.

Jed Lowrie - As a first round pick, the Red Sox have invested some time and money into Lowrie's development, and last season was the first where he began to show what the Sox saw in him when he was drafted. Lowrie is very much like current Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia in that both get on base very well, play a decent second base, and are slightly challenged to play a major league quality shortstop. If the Sox could put either at shortstop, they'd likely do so, but as Pedroia has already established himself as one of the better young second basemen in the game, there is little place for Lowrie to stick in Boston. Even if Lowrie could play shortstop adequately, the Sox would have to move Julio Lugo, and doing that may be more difficult than convincing the President about global warming.

But that doesn't mean Lowrie won't be a good major league player going forward. If he can continue what he started this past season, the Red Sox could be trading away an all-star caliber player. However, Lowrie comes with a caveat, which is that last season was his first of above average offensive production. If he isn't able to replicate his 2007 season going forward then he won't be worth much either in trade or in Boston. Trading Lowrie now could be selling high on him on a mediocre player, or it could be trading a young cornerstone infielder. The question is, which is it?

Justin Masterson - I won't pretend I know much about Masterson. He is apparently likely to make the big leagues as a reliever in the Mike Timlin mold, i.e. a sinking fastball guy who gets strikeouts and groundballs, though I believe he has been starting thus far in the minors. If that is what he turns into he will be a valuable commodity, but he's not there yet. Masterson will start the year in AA Portland, so he's far from a proven major leaguer now. He is a nice guy to have in the system, but he isn't anyone who should prevent the Red Sox from acquiring Johan Santana.

So that's it. I really like Jed Lowrie as a player but the Sox won't really have a space for him to play every day any time soon. Lester is similar in that if Santana is coming the other way his loss is more than smoothed over, though there are some who think that Lester could be 75% of Santana for 20% of the cost. Like Lester, Ellsbury is someone who the fans have grown attached to. Losing him has the greatest impact on the 2008 team of any of the potential players going to Minnesota. Masterson is a nice player to have, but isn't anything to worry about giving up.

There are a million things to consider when making a trade like this, and I won't pretend to have the answers, but I will echo Seth Mnookin who said that he enjoys rooting for 'his guys' meaning players who have come up as Red Sox. I agree with that sentiment. Emotionally, I like the guys the Red Sox have now and I think we can win the World Series again next season without trading for Santana, even if he ends up with the Yankees. However, this is a potentiall Hall-of-Famer in the prime of his career that we're talking about, so its no small thing to acquire a guy like this. Just think of what it will do to the Yankees if Santana comes to Boston. Theres a thought to fall asleep to, huh?

Overall, it could go either way. I'm just glad that this isn't a decision I have to make.

WELCOME WINTER

2007-12-26T10:48:00.000-05:00

And like that, another Christmas/Shopping Season ends.

Its such a let down after Christmas is over. Not because I love Christmas, though I do enjoy the lights, but because the end of Christmas season leaves behind simply the cold and dark of winter. Three more months of cold, and if we're lucky, a bit of snow will set the scene.

Then one cold winter day, a couple trucks push through the snow and arrive outside Fenway Park. There they'll be packed to the gills and they'll hit the road heading south for Fort Myers, Florida.

Spring Training will poke a few notes of warmth through our cold winter. Images of the players stretching and long tossing in short sleeves with palm trees in the back ground will be published in the paper and broadcast on the news. Those of us lucky enough will take a few days off work and relive our childhood watching a few games that don't matter under the sun. We'll reappear at work the following week sporting a sunburn and a unmovable grin.

That's what I'm living for now. Truck day, the beginning of Spring Training, and the start to another great season of Red Sox baseball.

Happy Holidays to you all, and remember, Spring Training is just fifty days away. Stay warm!

NOTHING TO REPORT & '07 BOX SET REVIEW

2007-12-21T14:58:00.000-05:00

Its been a little while, but I'm back.

I've been working at a new job, and as I wrote before its an hour away from home which means 2 hours are spent commenting every day. That is time that I would normally be devoting, at least in part, to FPE. But thems the breaks, right? Maintain your dumb baseball blog or accept a good job.... hmmm... (still thinking)...

Nothing to Report

The other reason I haven't posted too much recently is that there hasn't been a whole lot to post about. Sure there have been rumors up the wazoo, but not much concrete has happened. Ellsbury and Lester are still Red Sox, Francona is still going into the last year of his deal, and A-Rod is still a Yankee, despite Scott Boras's best attempts.

The Santana situation may heat up again sometime in the near future, but nothing seems to be going on now. Many people seem to think that the Twins won't go into the '08 season with Santana on their team simply because that could limit what they get in trade for him. Personally, I don't see the harm in it. If they don't get the value in trade that equals 1 year of Santana, negotiating rights, and two first round draft picks then they'd be stupid to deal him. Truth be told, they may be stupid to deal him anyway, but at least they could justify it.

Hank Steinbrenner Is An Idiot

In other news, Hank Steinbrenner is an idiot. The apple didn't fall far from the tree with this one. A while back I wrote that when George is gone I'm going to miss him - not because I like him, but because he's so easy to dislike. But now that his idiot son is attempting to bring back the gory days of the 70's (yes, gory) with his buffoonery, I'm less likely to miss the original. Still, this has the ability to be fun for Red Sox fans, and in truth, really any non-Yankees fan. Steinbrenner may be an idiot, but it seems his brand of idiocy is at least an entertaining one.

2007 Red Sox World Series DVD Mini-Review

In still other news, I finally received my 2007 Red Sox World Series DVD box set. Its great to have and I've enjoyed watching it, except for one thing: the games are edited. The 2004 Red Sox World Series DVD box set contains the unedited broadcasts of each ALCS and World Series game. No commercials, but other than that its exactly as if you were watching it on TV. The 2007 version is different. Someone at MLB must have decided that the games were too long, so their solution was to cut out some 'unimportant' parts in between at-bats.

This may save some time, but the effect is jarring. One minute you'll see Lugo pop up to shortstop, and the very next second Pedroia is standing in the batters box about to face his first pitch. It destroys the continuity, and makes following the announcers trains of thought very difficult in spots. No comments on Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, but its actually even more difficult to follow what they are saying when one of these 'edits' takes place.

Other than that, watching each game in its (mostly) entirety is a lot of fun. All the stress is removed because you know the Sox are going to win (and isn't that a great feeling?) so you can just sit back, relax and enjoy the baseball. Its a great buy and I recommend it for any true Red Sox fan's DVD library.

As for my off-season plans, I am planning on finishing my 2007 retrospective, I'll be taking a look at the Red Sox off season and checking on their potential for 2008. I'll be posting these during the off season.

Happy Holidays
In any case, a happy holidays to you all. Check back periodically for more fabulousness, and as always, thanks for reading.

SANTA SANTANA or YO HO JOHAN

2007-12-01T19:58:00.000-05:00

It’s December, so that means one thing: Christmas. Oh, and the Red Sox and Yankees are in heated competition for a player. So, fine, two things.

This time it’s Johan Santana who is the apple of the team’s collective eye. As the consensus best starting pitcher in baseball, Santana should be a no-brainer for the Twins to resign. If he wants to, he should be able to spend the rest of his career as a Twin.

But the ever-cheap Twins, owned by the richest man in Major League Baseball (no, not Alex Rodriguez), Carl Pohlad, are again looking to pass the dinner check to one of baseball’s big spenders when it comes time to pay up. Why a team with good attendance, tons of up-and-coming talent, and a great young core of players is looking to trade away their best player in the prime of his career is, sadly, rather simple. As a two-time Cy Young winner (should be three), Santana won’t settle for a hometown discount. Minimally, it will take about 5 years at $20 Million per year to sign Santana, but likely the price will be a good bit above that. I’ve heard as high as 5 years, $150 Million, but who knows.

Simply put, the Twins are too cheap to reward their best player with something close to his worth on the open market. So rather than wait for him to play out his contract (he’s a free agent after the ’08 season) they’re going to trade him. But they’re going to have to trade him to a team that can, 1) afford to extend his contract at market value, and 2) afford to give the Twins what they want in terms of prospects in return. That’s a massive undertaking, which is why the bidding is down to the Red Sox and the Yankees. The Angels, Mets, and Dodgers all have the money too, but are reportedly either pursuing other options (read: Miguel Cabrera) or don’t have the prospects to compete.

The Red Sox could get this deal done now if they really wanted to gut their farm system. The Twins seem to like the Red Sox prospects better than NY’s. But, fortunately, the Sox are holding off. The Yankees, drool dripping down their pock-marked twins, are having trouble not throwing everything in the pot, and may just hand Minnesota the keys to their farm system any moment now.

Answering the essential question, “Should the Red Sox trade a significant portion of their farm for Santana and then give him a huge contract?” is problematic. It is so because, despite published reports, it’s impossible to know exactly what the teams are offering for Santana, and what type of contract Santana would demand upon a trade.

Are Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden, and Jon Lester and $150 Million too much to trade for six years of Johan Santana? Before answering, ask yourself how Santana would look as the Sox number two pitcher behind Josh Beckett and in front of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, and Clay Buchholz.

But before answering that, answer this: how much better will Santana be than Jon Lester over the next six years? Undoubtedly Santana will out-pitch Lester, but by how much? Is the difference equivalent to the worth of Lowrie, Bowden, Crisp, plus the difference in their salaries over that period (we’ll say about $140M)?

It’s a tough decision to make. Jacoby Ellsbury makes Crisp expendable, and Bowden is good but has yet to pitch above AA ball. The road to stardom is littered with pitchers like him. (This isn’t to say that he won’t turn into a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher, but we have no way of knowing that now.) Lowrie looks like a good major leaguer who can play an adequate middle infield position. In other words, he looks like a valuable player, but unless the Sox can trade Julio Lugo and his ridiculous contract (signs point to ‘No’), and/or the Sox are going to trade Dustin Pedroia there doesn’t look to be much room for him.

The difference between Lester over the next six years and Santana over the next six years could be sizable, but it’s probably not worth the money plus the potential of the other players involved. Plus, Lester doesn’t figure to be a bad pitcher going forward. If he can get his control in hand a bit, he could be a legitimate #2 guy, and for a whole lot less money.

The Yankees on the other hand, now run by ‘70’s era George Steinbrenner buffoon/baboon Hank Steinbrenner, who shoots his mouth off to the press as if he’s trying to surpass his father’s former bluster, might just trade the farm. In fact, if Joba Chamberlain hadn’t come up and pitched in the majors last season, you might be hearing about how the Yankees would trade anyone under their control for Santana. They may yet do that anyway.

Personally, I say let NY have him. He’s a great pitcher, but I don’t think even he is worth the haul that Minnesota is asking for from Boston. Let the Yankees trade away their future for a chance to compete next season. Let NY pay Fruitbat and Dumbo (Rivera and Posada) $80M, Santana $150 Million, A-Rod, $300 Million. Let them blow their payroll past the $250M mark.

And then let them finish second again.

MIKEY DOUBLES RETURNS!

2007-11-19T17:46:00.000-05:00

Theo resigned Mike Lowell to a three year $37.5M contract (because we're supposed to care about these things). Lowell will once again man the hot corner in Boston, keeping Gold Glover Kevin Youkilis at first base.

I'm surprised at this. I can honestly say I didn't expect it to get done on either end.

First of all, I thought that Lowell would get four years from someone. Maybe he did get a four year offer but elected to come back to Boston, but I kinda doubt it. The Yankees have A-Hole, and Phillies have their heads up their collective arse and so Lowell probably realized Boston's offer was as good as it was going to get for him.

Not that he didn't want to come back (I'm sure he did), but a year guaranteed at $13-14M is serious money. You don't think Johnny Damon loved Boston too? He got $12M to forget about that, and forget he did. I'm sure Mike Lowell would have forgotten too. Thats not a knock on Lowell, its just the nature of the business.

I'm surprised about this from the Red Sox perspective too. If Lowell hits like he did this past season then he'll be worth the money the Sox just spent on him. However, Lowell has never hit like he did last season in his career until last season. If there is anywhere that Lowell can keep this type of production up its in Boston. Fenway Park is made for the swing of Mike Lowell.

But even hitting in his dream park, Lowell is getting on in years. Will he be as productive, or productive enough in three years at age 36? Maybe. The Red Sox certainly didn't think he would be productive enough at age 37 though. Of course, you never know what the market will do, so even if Lowell steadily declines (as anyone without blinders on expects him to do) this deal could end up looking good in the end.

And with that, the Red Sox off season comes to an end. Well, not really, but sort of. You might see a Coco Crisp trade (OK, you probably will see a Coco Crisp trade), but other than that the 2008 Red Sox are pretty much set. We've got six starters, a closer, a setup guy, and one starter at every position. That doesn't mean the Sox won't explore other options. Thats their job. But, I don't expect anything else substantial will happen.

So, welcome back Mike Lowell! We're glad you never left.

RED SOX RETROSPECTIVE: PART 2

2007-11-12T14:11:00.000-05:00

This is the second in a three or four part retrospective about the 2007 World Series Champion Red Sox. In case you missed it, part one is here.

***

The End of Spring

Before the starting gun sounded, we had a bit of controversy. Or, maybe not controversy, but… intrigue? Or maybe debate…?… Whatever. Jonathan Papelbon, who the Red Sox were planning on using as a starting pitcher following a season of successful relief pitching (that is, until he hurt his arm in early September), started having nightmares. Hows that for controversy/intrigue/aw whatever? These nightmares culminated in Pap switching back to the bullpen. But more on the nightmares in a minute.

Of course, the switch wasn’t made simply because Paps couldn’t sleep at night. The Red Sox had brought in a number of different candidates to close, but the problem was that none of them could pitch effectively. And this was still in Spring Training. Of the pretenders to the throne, the chief culprit was Joel Piniero who, despite being a good guy, couldn’t pitch very well. He proved this over and over until he was banished to the National League (where he later signed a pretty healthy contract, but I’m getting ahead of myself).

The other issue in play was Pap’s shoulder. After throwing a good number of innings as closer, in September of ‘06 Paps shoulder popped out of joint (a “subluxation”). This lead to a number of medical diagnosis wherein the Red Sox were told that Papelbon would be healthier if he was in the starting rotation. So, the Red Sox obliged, and moved Papelbon into the starting rotation.

Though he said differently at the time, Paps didn’t like it one bit. He wanted to be a closer. Now we get back to the nightmares, which Paps was apparently having because he was doing something (starting) that he didn’t want to do (or so the story goes). One day Paps walked into Francona’s office after some prompting from a teammate and told the manager that he wanted to close. Francona took it to Theo Epstein, and all of a sudden Paps was healthy enough to pitch out of the pen. To read the papers, one would have thought that a tsunami had hit the city of Boston. But, no. It was only the return of Papelbon to the bullpen.

Moving Paps out of the rotation closed up the only major hole on the roster, but it also opened up a new hole in the rotation. This necessitated finding another starting pitcher. The Sox had had some success (minor though it was) in having His Craziness, Julian Tavarez start some games as the 2006 season was spinning in smaller and smaller circles down the commode. As there weren’t many other options and Tavarez had been at least somewhat effective, the Sox moved him into the fifth starter spot in the rotation. The move was widely thought to be a placeholder until Jon Lester proved himself recovered and ready to return to the rotation.

The 2007 Red Sox went into the year with the rotation as follows:

1. Josh Beckett
2. Curt Schilling
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. His Craziness, Julian Tavarez

The Beginning

The Red Sox got off to a great start. By the end of April they were 16-8, and had a 4.0 game lead in the AL East. Conversely, the Yankees were 9-14 and obituaries were being written up and down the east coast. The Red Sox were getting good pitching and good enough hitting, which would become a reoccurring theme during the ’07 season. Mike Lowell got off to his typical blistering start, hitting .314/.371/.547 in April. .297/.402/.615 with seven homers.

Part of the reason the Sox fast start was so impressive was that they did it without many contributions from a good portion of their lineup. Dustin Pedroia was horrible, hitting .182/.308/.236, leading many fans to call for his benching in favor of future Hall of Famer Alex Cora. Manny Ramirez wasn’t much better, hitting .202/.314/.315. Bleah.

Still, the Red Sox kept winning. May saw them go 20-8, improving to 36-16. This brought their AL East lead to an unfathomable 11.5 games. The Sox were cruising. Meanwhile the Yankees were struggling. They followed up their losing April with a losing May, bringing their record to an unsightly 22-29, 13.5 games behind the Red Sox.

It looked like an easy, stress-free summer was on the horizon. Uh, right.

***

Part 3 soon to come...

CABRERA

2007-11-07T22:13:00.000-05:00

Heres the thing: if the Red Sox can get Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins without stripping their farm system, they absolutely have to do it. But, if they can only get him by stripping their farm system, then they should think long and hard about it, and then do it.

Why? Because Cabrera is Manny Ramirez, only 24 years old. In the last three years, Cabrera's OPS+ has been over 150 (100 is average, 101 is 1% above average, etc.). Thats incredible. Plainly, this guy can crush the ball.

But, for those of you who don't go to bed with arcane baseball stats dancing in your heads, let me make this easier. Cabrera, playing his home games in a football stadium that plays like a football stadium, has hit over .320/.400/.560 each of the past two years. And he's only 24, or did I mention that? This guy is one of the top ten hitters in the game, maybe in the top five, and he's younger than everyone else on the list. Would you trade for Pujols? Well, this is almost the same thing, except six years younger.

The Red Sox don't have a player like this in their minor league system right now, and thats saying something because the Red Sox have quite an impressive stable of minor league talent. In fact, I can't think of when the Red Sox had a comparable hitter in their system. Maybe you'd count Nomar? Yaz?

There are of course some possible downsides to this, but this is a chance the Red Sox need to take for two reasons. First, this player can anchor the Red Sox lineup for the next 14 years, long after Manny and Papi have passed into retirement. Second, every game Cabrera plays for the Red Sox is a game he doesn't play against the Red Sox. Cabrera is the best hitter on the market. Yes, better than A-Rod. Trading for him would prevent the Yankees from doing the same.

I'm not going to get into who the Sox should give up for Cabrera. I can't negotiate with the Marlins here, and I don't know how they value the Red Sox young players, nor do I really know how the Red Sox value their own young players. The only thing I'd say is be very wary of trading Clay Buchholz. Anyone else, any other combination of players, any sum of money, and it'll be time to fit Cabrera for a pretty new uniform with "Red Sox" across the front.

THE RATS ARE JUMPING SHIP

2007-11-06T22:15:00.000-05:00

In news unrelated to the 2007 World Champion Boston Red Sox, the Yankees are experiencing a jailbreak of sorts. First A-Rod heads for the exits, then Posada says he wants to listen to offers from other teams (read: Mets), and now Annndddyy Pettitte declined his $16M option to stay with the Yankees.

I hope you won't think me rude for chuckling softly to myself.

But seriously, this is just too funny. If there is any actual news I'll surely post some analysis, but for now, some library-volume cackling is all I can offer.

SOX SIGN SCHILL

2007-11-06T17:02:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox completed something in two days that I thought they'd never be able to accomplish: they resigned Curt Schilling. Ol' Schil wanted to come back to Boston so badly that he took a lower base salary with some incentives.

Now the salary wasn't that low at $8 Million, and with incentives it sounds like he can earn more next season than he did in 2007, but if Curt wanted the full $13 Million like last season then the chances of this happening were very slim. Plain and simple, Curt Schilling took less money to play in Boston next season. He could have got more money and more years elsewhere, but he wanted to stay in Boston and he took less of each to do so.

This is great news for the 2008 Red Sox. Schilling isn't a great pitcher anymore, but he is still a very good one. The '08 Red Sox rotation is starting to take shape. If you slot Schilling into the number three spot, things look like this:

1. Josh Beckett
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. Curt Schilling
4. Clay Buchholz
5. Jon Lester
5b. Tim Wakefield

Exactly how Francona slots the starters will have to wait for a few months, but having six viable starters for five slots is huge. Especially since two of those starters are over 40, and two of them are under 25. This is a very smart move by Theo Epstein and the Red Sox.

Not only that, its great to have the old man come back. Glad to have you back, Curt. Its like you never left.

OPTIONS, FARRELL & FREE AGENCY

2007-11-03T19:06:00.000-05:00

This picture has nothing to do with this post. I just thought it was awesome. That is all.

Some notes on a few Red Sox-related off-season happenings:

1. The Red Sox picked up the player options on two pitchers, one expected and the other, well... not so much. Predictably, the Sox picked up the $4M player option on Tim Wakefield. At that price it almost doesn't matter what Wakefield's role will be in the '08 team. He can relieve, start, or both, but the Sox don't have to make any decisions now. They can sort it out later depending on how the rest of the off-season plays out.

More unexpectedly, the Sox picked up His Craziness, Julian Tavarez's '08 option, which cost them $3.85M. I'm not sure where Tavarez fits in on the '08 squad, possibly as an innings-eater out of the pen. I imagine that the Sox feel that they can easily move him either during the off season or spring training if it turns out that there is no place for him.

2. Pitching coach John Farrell has turned down the opportunity to manage the Pittsburgh Pirates (or at least to interview for the job, which he likely would have gotten). What a surprise. Still, this should be great news for any Red Sox fan. Farrell did a very impressive job this season with Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and I'm very much looking forward to seeing him work with Clay Buchholz next season.

***

In the coming weeks the Sox will have to make offers to free agents Mike Lowell, Curt Schilling, Doug Mirabelli, Brendan Donnelly, Eric Hinske, and Mike Timlin. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox brought back half that group or more. Here's a quick run-down on each:

Doug Mirabelli: With the re-upping of Tim Wakefield, Dougie's return becomes more likely. The fact that there really aren't any other great options out there (the list of free-agent back-up catchers reads like a who's-who of players you don't want on your team) makes this an even easier decision. Unless the Sox can convince some decent catcher to come to a World Series winner to play backup, the devil you know beats the devil you don't.

Eric Hinske: Despite playing on a World Series winner this season, Hinske's career has been on a downward trajectory ever since winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. To put it bluntly, Hinkse was awful this season, hitting a is-this-guy-done-? .204/.317/.398. If the Sox think that Hinske can better approximate his career .255/.336/.434 line he might be worth having on the bench again. If not, better to move on. There are other guys who can play multiple positions and won't hit like Mario Mendoza.

Mike Timlin: Timlin was surprisingly effective in 55 innings this season. He wasn't great, but for a 41 year old he was pretty decent. Of course, hitters don't grade on a curve, and theres a good chance that the Sox just wrung the last bit of effectiveness out of this stone. Whether or not the Sox bring him back will have a lot to do with who they see in their bullpen next season. If Craig Hansen is legitimately prepared to pitch in the big leagues and the Sox are actually intent on Julian Tavarez taking up some innings out of the pen, Timlin may have to take his fatigues elsewhere.

Brenden Donnelly: It depends on what the market is for Donnelly... which is a stupid thing to write, because its true of every free agent in the game. Anyway, if Donnelly will be happy with an invite to spring training then I'm all for it. Otherwise, it might be best to cut bait while the cut'n is cheap.

Curt Schilling: As much as I'd like this to happen, I think its unlikely. $13M is a lot to pay an old injury-prone fastball pitcher who's lost his fastball. Conversely, Schilling has shown that he can still get major league hitters out, and what is $13M to the Red Sox? If there has ever been a pitcher that the Sox have owed, even after his time with the team was up, Curt is it. Not that an '08 contract will be charity. With the Sox depending on so much young pitching going into '08 its not a bad idea to have Ol' Schil around for one more season.

Mike Lowell: This gets complicated real fast. With Kevin Youkilis able to play either first or third, the Red Sox have some maneuverability, at least in theory. They can go after a first baseman or a third baseman and simply move Youk to which ever position remains unoccupied. But, after Lowell (and A-Rod) there really aren't any good corner infielders to be had on the market. This means that either the Sox sign one of those two guys (and be stuck with them for the long term, or in A-Rod's case the next millennium) or they wait a year and try break the bank on Mark Teixeira like every other team in baseball.

Their other (Third? Fourth? Seventh?) option is to make some sort of trade. Rumor says Miguel Cabrera is available, but you can expect the bidding to start at Clay Buchholz and escalate from there. Is that a good deal to make? Maybe, but its definitely something the Sox should look into. More on this possibility later.

The easiest thing would be to see if a deal can be struck in the three year range Lowell. If not, the Sox need to start looking at other possibilities, like Cabrera, and like A-Rod. Maybe Hank Blaylock can be acquired. Maybe Adrian Beltre can be pried loose. If Lowell opts to go elsewhere, the Red Sox have many options, but many of them will involve some major maneuvering. The road of least resistance is to resign Lowell, and for a team that just won the World Series (have I referenced that enough?) that just might be the right path to go down.

***

Soon, part II of my 2007 Red Sox retrospective. Stay tuned!

RED SOX RETROSPECTIVE: PART 1

2007-11-02T18:05:00.001-05:00

This is the first in a three or four part retrospective about the 2007 World Series Champion Red Sox.

***

The free agency signing period is just around the corner, but before I jump all over that, A-Rod, Lowell, Schilling and all the potential trade targets will have to wait one post. So often we are so eager to take the next step that we over look what is happening now, or in this case what just happened yesterday. Who is the next playoff opponent? Who will the Sox sign in free agency? Where will A-Rod go? I want to lend my unnecessary voice to all these questions, but I’m going to wait a day or two. Instead, I want to spend a moment dwelling on the 2007 Red Sox.

At the beginning of the year, I wrote about how I thought the team would come together, and how I felt they were the team to beat. The Red Sox were my pre-season pick to win the World Series (I had them beating Arizona) and they came together exactly as well as I’d hoped.

Not that this took any type of genius to discern. This team was stacked from the beginning. So, just to clarify my own thoughts, I’m going to take a look back, all the way back, before they were the Team That Won The World Series For The Second Time In Four Years.

You may recall the Red Sox weren’t always the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. Nope. In fact, at this time a year ago, they were just another team who had missed the playoffs. Actually, that’s not even true. The 2006 Red Sox were an injury-riddled disaster that went from a solid hold on first place in the AL East to a broken shell of a team in one month.

On July 21st, 2006 the Red Sox whipped Seattle 9-4 bringing their record to 59-36 and increasing their AL East lead to 3.5 games. One month later the Red Sox lost to the Yankees 2-1 putting their record at 69-55 and dropping them 6.5 games behind the Yankees.

It only got worse from there. On September 1st the Sox were 8 games back, and on the 13th they were 11.5 games back. Their injury list read like a who’s who of Red Sox players: Manny, Varitek, Papi, Papelbon. Lester was diagnosed with cancer, and the Sox were forced to run the hideous Jason Johnson out for 29 innings (in which he gave up 26 runs).

The Sox September slide reinforced the need for new blood in the ’07 team, and the front office went about fixing the roster. The Sox let David Wells, Trot Nixon, Mark Loretta, Alex Gonzalez, Javy Lopez, and Carlos Pena (oops!) go. Despite that list, the front office didn’t make many changes. Instead, they brought in younger players with some targeted free agents.

Loretta was allowed to depart and rookie Dustin Pedroia was given the second base job. Julio Lugo was signed to play shortstop, filling the hole left by Gonzalaz, and J.D. Drew was handed a huge check and told to report to right field to replace fan-favorite Trot Nixon. Oddly enough, Drew was even given Nixon’s old number.

To fix the holes in the rotation, the Red Sox acquired the 26 year old gyro-ball throwing Diasuke Matsuzaka from the Japanese leagues. The Sox envisioned Matsuzaka stepping into the rotation and being the number three starter behind Schilling and Beckett. Many questioned the huge outlay of cash, but some thought that Matsuzaka might be one of the best pitchers in the majors before even throwing a pitch. They also moved talented young closer Jonathan Papelbon into the rotation. Between Beckett, Papelbon, and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox would have three young studs.

Based on these large financial outlays, people expected big things from the ’07 Red Sox. I wasn’t alone in picking them to go to the World Series. Still, many thought that the Tigers, fresh off an embarrassing World Series loss to the historically-bad-for-a-league-champion Cardinals, were the best team in baseball. Their young pitching staff had aged a year, and they had traded serious young talent to the Yankees to get the powerful bat of Gary Sheffield. Others thought the Angels or Yankees would be the team to beat in the AL.

There was no consensus, but to me it was easy to see the immense talent that assembled on the practice fields of Fort Myers in late February. In fact, I went down to see it for myself. Not that a fan who catches three Red Sox games in mid-March can glean anything significantly predictive from the experience, but it was plain to see that the Red Sox were a good team.

***

Part 2 soon to come...

JUST CAUSE

2007-10-31T20:37:00.000-05:00

Just because the Red Sox won the World Series (again!) doesn't mean I'm giving up over here. The reason for my occasional absences is my new job. Specifically, the time my new job requires me to be at work (7:30am) and the distance that I live from my job (at least 1 hour away). Combined, this means that I have to get up at 5:45am.

Yuck.

Of course FPE will be with you all off season, offering insights that you yourself would never have thought of, even if someone put a loaded poodle to your temple and yelled "Tell me or I'll make it pee!"

One such insight, which is all you'll get tonight because I have to get up in 9 hours and I need my beauty rest (ugly people need beauty rest even more than pretty people), is that the Red Sox should sign Curt Schilling for one year at whatever million dollars.

The reason is because there is no other option available. Schilling might be asking for more than he's worth on a yearly basis, but he's only asking for it once (i.e. only one year's worth). This makes him a bargain because any supposedly decent pitcher that the Red Sox sign will require a much larger commitment in terms of years, and therefore money.

Schilling may be old and he may have lost 8 or 9 mph off his fastball, but the guy can still pitch. He's not going to win the Cy Young next year, but then thats why we have Josh Beckett. Ol' Schil doesn't have to win the Cy, he just has to be a better-than-league-average pitcher, and we know he can do that. He might not be healthy all year long, but thats why we have Tim "A steal at only $4M" Wakefield.

Between Schilling and Wakefield the Sox can put together a better than league average #3 starter who can throw 200+ innings. This is immensely valuable. The Sox can afford this $17M (Schilling + Wakefield=13M+4M) extravagance because 2/5 of the Sox rotation next season will cost them under $1M combined. Lester and Buchholz should be #4 and #5 in the rotation next season, and neither is even arbitration eligible.

With Schilling, the Red Sox starting rotation will earn $36M combined, or an average of $7.2M
a piece (I included Wakefield's salary, but not Daisuke's pro-rated posting fee). With Schilling the team will have 6 starters for five spots, which is high-quality insurance (in case of injury). But more importantly, with Schilling they'll have the best rotation they can have going into Spring Training.

Now, I'm going to bed. Happy Halloween.

HOLY CRAP!!! WORLD SERIES CHAMPS!!!

2007-10-28T23:21:00.000-05:00

The Boston Red Sox won 4-3 tonight, sweeping the Colorado Rockies and winning the 103rd World Series!!

Lots of celebrating tonight in Boston and New England to be sure, but there was a little celebration in the Northern Liberties section of Philadelphia tonight as well. Congrats to the Red Sox for a job well done, and thanks for another great season of Boston Red Sox baseball.

I'll be back tomorrow with more here at FPE, but for now

THE BOSTON RED SOX ARE THE 2007 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!!!

LETS GO SOX!!

SOX WIN BEHIND MATSUZAKA, OFFENSE; TAKE COMMANDING 3-0 LEAD IN WORLD SERIES

2007-10-27T14:54:00.000-05:00

With Daisuke Matsuzaka suddenly struggling after five brilliant innings, Terry Francona decided to go to his bullpen. In came Javier Lopez to face lefty Brad Hawpe. Lopez is a decent pitcher, but is mis-cast as a lefty killer. Yet thats exactly what Lopez was charged to do. It was the first time all post season when I've openly questioned what Francona was doing. Hawpe had struck out a billion times in a row (may not be quite accurate) and all on fastballs. Lopez's fastball is decidedly mediocre, while Daisuke's is good, yet in came Lopez and out went Matsuzaka.

That was the beginning of the only rally the Rockies have had all World Series. But, heres the beauty part: it wouldn't be nearly enough. The Rockies were out-hit, out-pitched, out-fielded, out-managed, and just plain out-classed last night as they have been throughout the whole series. The Red Sox rolled behind a ten run performance by their DH-less offense, beating Colorado on the road 10-3.

The Sox got offense from unexpected sources tonight, including Julio Lugo (1 hit, 2 walks, 2 runs scored), Jacoby Ellsbury (4-5 with 2 runs scored), Coco Crisp (1 hit and 1 run) and most surprising of all, a two run single by Daisuke Matsuzaka. In all, the Sox offense has done something that no other team in the playoffs could do and beat the Rockies at home. The win puts the Red Sox on the edge of a World Series title and simultaneously pushes the Rockies to the brink of elimination.

We'll debate Francona's bullpen choices later, but for now, the Sox are one win away from being crowned 2007 World Series Champions.

Jon Lester goes for the Red Sox tomorrow. He'll be opposed by Aaron Cook. Gametime is the FOX-erific 8:35pm. With three hours of commercials on top, the game could run 5 hours.

SOX SHUT DOWN ROCKIES, TAKE 2-0 LEAD IN WORLD SERIES

2007-10-25T23:20:00.000-05:00

You could make the argument that the Rockies got lucky. They scored their only run on a hit-by-pitch, a single off someone's glove, and a ground out. The Red Sox, conversely, left baserunner after baserunner in scoring position. They hit the ball hard, but right at Rockies fielders. Somehow it all amounted to only two runs for Boston, but it could easily have been five or six.

This was a 5-0 game masquerading as a 2-1 game. And the Sox won anyway. In doing so, they take the commanding two games to none lead as the World Series goes to Colorado for the first time in Major League history.

As good as Curt Schilling was, and he was excellent, the Red Sox bullpen was better. Between Schilling, Okajima, and Papelbon, there were few chances for Colorado. Their best chance likely came in the sixth inning when with one out, Schilling walked his second batter to put runners at first and second. That was it for him, as Terry Francona went to Hideki Okajima.

Okajima got a ground out to Youkilis for out number two, and a strikeout to end the inning. Then he threw 1 2/3 more scoreless innings before yielding to Papelbon with two down in the eighth inning. Okajima faced seven hitters and struck four of them out. He didn't walk anyone, nor did he give up a hit. In fact, other than Holliday, the Rockies hitters went 1-25 against Red Sox pitching on the night.

After coming on in the eighth, Papelbon gave up a single to MVP candidate Matt Holliday, but promptly picked Holliday off before even throwing a pitch to Todd Helton. In the ninth, he struck Helton out, got Atkins to fly out and then struck out Hawpe to end it. Game over. 2-1 games don't come any more stress-free than this one, especially in the World Series.

The Sox now get a day off as they travel to Colorado. The World Series resumes on Saturday night at 8pm EST with Daisuke Matsuzaka facing Josh Fogg. Since the NL park doesn't allow for a DH, it will be interesting to see if Francona tries to maximize his offense by playing David Ortiz, or his defense by playing Youk at first base. I suspect Francona may mix and match by playing Ortiz at first for the first two games and then Youk would replace him in Game 5 (should it be necessary).

The reason is the Rockies are throwing two right-handed pitchers in Games 3 and 4, so it makes sense to put the lefty Ortiz in there (not to mention Ortiz is maybe the greatest clutch hitter in baseball today, and this from someone who doesn't really believe in clutch hitting). In any case, I bet Ortiz starts at first in Game 3. If Matsuzaka can throw strikes the Red Sox can take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series.

But thats for another day. For now, we can all savor the 2-0 cushion for a day and a half.

More this weekend.

Go Sox!

SOX BEAT LIVING CRAP OUT OF ROCKIES; I GET NEW JOB, WORK TOO MUCH

2007-10-25T19:03:00.000-05:00

Apologies for the lack of postings around these parts recently. Just out of graduate school (if you count 5 months as "just"), I started my first post-graduate full time job this past Monday. Its been great so far, but its also been taking up a lot of my day (huge surprise there, huh?), especially since I have the slight misfortune to live over an hour away from my job of choice. This means that in addition to learning everything, my eight hour days are actually ten hours because I have an hour of travel time on top of each. On top of that, the Red Sox have the nerve to keep playing baseball every night and that pretty much kills my day right there.

I'm sure once I get my sea legs about me I'll be able to keep this blog up. This isn't good-bye, nor is it even a hiatus. Its simply me, the writer, apologizing to you, the reader, for not keeping up my end of the bargain.

***

So, how bout them Sox, huh? Game 1 came too quickly for me to post my prediction, let alone anything that would qualify as a World Series preview. Allow me to post-date my prediction and say the Red Sox win in 5.

More when I get a moment to breath. Stick with me, folks.

WE'RE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

2007-10-21T23:33:00.000-05:00

Its late and I have to start my new job tomorrow, so I'll just write this:

THE BOSTON RED SOX ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

HELL YEAH!!

SCHILLING, DREW CRUSH INDIANS, SEND SOX TO GAME 7

2007-10-21T00:19:00.000-05:00

How long have we all been waiting to say "Drew wins for Red Sox?" Well wait no more, my friends, J.D. Drew has come through (finally)! With the bases loaded and two down in the first inning, Drew crushed a 3-1 fastball into the center field camera box. After that the rout was on.

Unfortunately, I didn't see any of it. My father was celebrating his 59th birthday and the dinner reservations were for 8pm EST. I asked my friend George to text me with updates on the game. The following are texts I received from George during dinner:

8:54pm: "Grand Slam... JD Drew muthafucka!!! 4-0 Sox bottom 1"
(I yelled something after receiving this, leading the french waiter to ask me what the score was)

9:41pm: "RBI single... Drew again! Read that last line again!"

9:45pm: "Carmona out, 5-1 bottom 3"

9:46pm: "6-1! Ellsbury RBI."

9:55pm: "10-1, I am not lying. This is fucking awesome. Enjoy your dinner."

That concluded the texts, but not the scoring. The Sox tacked on two in the bottom of the eighth against Joe "Why the Indians keep running me out there is beyond anyone's understanding" Borowski.

This sets up Game 7 tonight at 8pm. The starters will be Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jake Westbrook, but its going to be all hands on deck for both teams. The entire Red Sox pitching staff should be available to pitch tonight, with the exception of Curt Schilling. Same goes for the Indians, who also won't have Curt Schilling.

More tomorrow if I get a moment. If not, here's the obligatory sign-off. This isn't over. Not by a long shot.

LETS GO SOX!!!

GAME 6: ELIMINATION GAME 2: PUTTING IT ALL ON THE TABLE

2007-10-20T00:18:00.000-05:00

This series has been a seemingly never-ending succession of one-act plays, each more important than the last. Josh Beckett authored a brilliant piece Thursday in Cleveland, and now, to mix my metaphors into a delicious sauce, the baton has been passed to Curt Schilling. It will be up to him to keep the series, and the Red Sox season, alive.

Just as I wrote about Game 5, the Red Sox need to treat this game as the end of the world (no, not really, Manny). If Schilling doesn’t have it, that fact needs to be discerned as early as possible in order that the damage inflicted is minimal.

All conventions need to go out the window. There is no pride or shame in this game, only winning and losing. If Schilling runs into an especially tough patch in the fourth inning and Terry Francona decides he’s done enough on the day, he shouldn’t be afraid to bring in Jonathan Papelbon if the situation calls for him simply because tonight's game means the season.

***

Indians starter Fausto Carmona, all of 23 years old, spent the vast majority of last season in the minor leagues. He threw roughly 100 innings over three levels last year (including a rough stint as Cleveland’s closer). This year, he’s already thrown well over 200 innings. This represents a violent jump in usage, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Carmona’s performance began to lag under the vastly increased workload.

As well as Carmona has pitched this year, and he has pitched incredibly well, he may not be ready for the pressure of this game just as his body may be wearing down some. This may be nothing, or it may be an advantage for Boston. We’ll see tonight.

While the Sox ultimately won Game 5 handily, they had C.C. Sabathia on the ropes all evening long and seemingly couldn’t put him away. The Sox will likely not get as many chances against Carmona, but they will likely get some. How well they take advantage of those chances may be the difference between playing a Game 7 or not.

***

In other news, Francona hinted that he might alter the lineup and bring in Jacoby Ellsbury for the perpetually struggling Coco Crisp. Potentially removing Crisp makes me wonder how important Crisp’s knowledge of Fenway’s center field is. Schilling is a decided fly ball pitcher, and unless he happens to have a killer split going tonight, its unlikely he’ll strike many people out. So, by modus ponens (if ‘a’ then ‘b’; a, therefore b) there will likely be many fly balls lofted towards center field by Indians hitters as long as Schilling is in the game.

Ellsbury doesn’t lack for range, but he does lack familiarity with areas such as the Triangle in center and the confluence of the Green Monster with the center field wall, which can shoot balls along the wall towards right field (and past unsuspecting center fielders). The question Mr. Francona must answer is how valuable is the difference between Crisp’s knowledge and Ellsbury’s and is that difference greater than the value of the difference between their respective batting abilities.

I will go on record as being in favor of the switch as Carmona’s decided ground ball tendencies will likely continue to stymie Crisp’s hitting. (At this point it appears the Indians could put a peach and a wheel of cheese on the mound and they would stymie Crisp’s hitting abilities.) On the other hand, Ellsbury is so fast that he can actually beat out routine ground balls for hits. I have actually seen him do this. Whats more, in a game where the Sox are going to need every run they can get, Ellsbury’s ability to get an extra step or two compared to Crisp could be the difference between scoring and being called out at home.

It should be an interesting game. The Sox have begun to claw their way back, and they can even the series tonight. This thing isn’t over yet. Not by a long shot.

GO SOX!!!

THEY DID IT AGAIN

2007-10-19T13:43:00.001-05:00

In last night's post I mentioned Indians fans waving '2007 World Series' towels during the game. I tried to find a good picture, but I couldn't. The best I could do was this:

You can see some of the towels in question being waved by fans. Unfortunately, you can't read what they say at all.

But, as if that weren't enough, more evidence of the Indians hubris has poured in to FPE HQ. After yesterday's ridiculous '2007 World Series' towel waving, comes a report from the paper of record in Cleveland, the Plain Dealer, about 'Cleveland Indians 2007 World Series' t-shirts which are now for sale in and around Cleveland.

Again: huh?!? Apparently its been so long for Indians fans that they've forgotten it takes four wins to advance to the World Series, not the three they currently have.

Ridiculous. If anyone has a photo of either the t-shirt or the towel, kindly post it in the comments section.

BECKETT IS NAILS: SOX WIN, TAKE SERIES BACK TO BOSTON

2007-10-19T00:01:00.000-05:00

Tonight, Beckett put the whole team on his back and took them the 638 miles back to Boston. He was helped along by Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, who homered over the left field wall in the top of the first to give the Red Sox a 1-0 lead. The Indians only run of the night tied up the game in the bottom of the inning. Sizemore hit a bloop double, Cabrera singled, and Hafner grounded into a double play.

After that, Beckett put the clamps on. No Indians crossed the plate the rest of the night. It was all Boston from there on in. The Sox cruised to a 7-1 win, and the series heads back to Boston for Game 6 on Saturday night. Curt Schilling will face Fausto Carmona in a rematch of Game 2.

More on this match up and the game later.

***

I did want to note something though. During the ninth inning when Papelbon was putting the screws to the Indians, FOX showed a close up of one dejected Indians fan in the stands. He was holding one of the white towels that Cleveland fans had been maniacally waving all night. The towel had, "2007 World Series" imprinted on it.

Um, are you F'n kidding me? The Indians are up 3 games to 1 heading in to Game 5 of the American League Championship Series, and all their moron fans are waving around 2007 World Series towels? Is everyone in Cleveland mentally deficient? You don't get World Series towels until you actually make it to the World Series!

When I posted earlier that I thought the Red Sox would win the series in five games a friend of mine accused me of inciting the Baseball Gods. He said my act of hubris (presumably picking my team to win) would be negatively reflected upon the Sox. I disagreed, saying that I only posted what I thought, and it was not an act of hubris. Well, even if my post was hubris, it pales in comparison to this. If there ever was an act of hubris, waiving World Series towels in the fifth game of the ALCS is it. Thats simply asking for it.

So, not only did the Red Sox dominate the Indians and bring the series back to Boston for Game 6, but 48,000 stupid Indians fans turned the Baseball Gods against their team as well.

***

Of course, none of this means crap if Curt Schilling doesn't throw a good game on Saturday. The Sox have shown they are patient enough to hit Carmona, at least a little bit. Carmona is likely at least somewhat tired due to his huge workload this season. The difference will be how Schilling pitches. Can he shut down the Indians? Can he keep the game close and give the Sox a chance to win?

We'll find out the answers to these and many other questions on Saturday, but for now, the Sox are taking this thing back to Boston. Theres some fight left in us after all. This thing isn't over yet. Not by a long shot.

LETS GO SOX!!

GAME 5: ELIMINATION GAME 1: HOW THE SOX WIN

2007-10-18T10:14:00.000-05:00

This is it, Part I.

The Sox have dug themselves a huge hole and now we all get the pleasure of watching them dig themselves out. Josh Beckett and his back problems will pitch for Boston with the season in the balance. A good performance from a starting pitcher should be a good step towards a win, but the Sox haven't had one of those (a win or a good performance from a starter, take your pick) since Beckett last pitched in Game 1 of this series.

So, for fun, lets construct a scenario where the Red Sox come back and beat Cleveland. Here's what happens and why:

Game 5: Sabathia has thrown 250.1 innings on the season, and his arm is tired. He is moderately effective early, but tires in the middle innings. Manny does some damage and the Sox take a 4-1 lead. Josh Beckett's back tightens up and he is out after 7 despite pitching well. Okajima and Papelbon come on to preserve the game. Sox win, 4-2.

Game 6: The series returns to Boston where Curt Schilling faces Fausto Carmona. Carmona threw 102 innings last year, and so far this year he's thrown 228 (post season plus regular season). He was less effective last time out and that trend continues here. The Sox hit him hard and he doesn't last through the fourth. Schilling himself is less than perfect, but he goes six and leaves with the Sox up 7-3. Cleveland mounts a comeback against the back end of the Boston pen, but Papelbon comes on (again) to save the day. Sox win, 8-6.

Game 7: Matsuzaka vs. Westbrook. Westbrook's sinker doesn't sink as much, and the Sox hit him hard too. He doesn't get out of the fourth. Matsuzaka does his typical dance with death, but ends up throwing five decent innings. He leaves with the Sox up 5-3. The Indians come back to tie it up off of our middle relief, but Manny and Big Papi make sure that the Sox win this one. Sox win, 7-5.

Seems plausible, right? We take the first step tonight. This one isn't over. Not by a long shot.

LETS GO SOX!!

CLOSE BUT NOT OVER

2007-10-17T10:29:00.000-05:00

The Sox pitching staff, the rock upon which their 96 victory regular season performance was built, has performed badly in this series. I'm not sure what the story is behind that, but its certainly not something I was expecting, nor was it something that anyone who analyzed the series beforehand could reasonably expect. It would be like me saying before the series started that Travis Hafner would strike out 12 times with zero hits in four games (I'm just making that number up, I have no idea how many times he's struck out). Not only would there be little basis for saying it, but there would be ample historical evidence (Hafner's entire season and indeed his whole career) to point to against it.

But thats the thing about a short series (yes, seven games is very short). Just about anything can happen, and having the better team is no guarantee of winning, just as how having the worst team in the majors is no guarantee of losing.

Could the Red Sox still come back? Absolutely they could. Will they? I'd say they have a pretty lousy chance of doing so, simply because winning three games in a row while facing Sabathia and Carmona would seem unlikley. But of course it could happen.

If Sabathia and Carmona pitch like they did earlier in the series than the Sox have a decent shot to even things up. But first they have to win tomorrow. When you're facing elimination, it doesn't make any sense to start planning for the future because if you don't win now there won't be any future anyway.

To that end, the Sox need to ride Beckett for as long as he is useful. If that is ten innings, so be it. If its only two, then they need to get him out of there with as minimal damage as possible. Utilize Papelbon for two innings if need be. Put Okajima in for 2 2/3 innings if they need to.

If the score is 4-2 (doesn't matter who is ahead) in the seventh, and they need to go to the bullpen, the only two guys they need to chose between at that point are Okajima and Papelbon. Once those guys have thrown enough, then you move on to the rest of the pen if need be, but not before. Its time to stop putting your trust in guys who you think can do the job and start relying heavily on guys you know can do the job.

That, and they'll need the Indians bullpen to help them out. More Borowski and less Betancourt should do the trick.

PANIC TIME

2007-10-16T22:40:00.000-05:00

Its hard to be optimistic after tonight's performance. It was a tremendously disappointing and dispiriting one.

I really don't feel like rehashing the whole game which is probably fine because I really doubt you feel like reading about it. Wakefield was fine until unraveling in the fifth. Thats where the game turned. Francona brought in Manny Delcarmen and he was terrible. Let me say that again. He was terrible. I love Manny, but you just can't have relief pitching like that in playoff game. He took a bad inning and made it a horrendous one.

But thats all in the past. All that matters now is Thursday's game. Josh Beckett will get the ball with the season on the line. He must pitch well or we're done. Simple as that.

ITS BUCKLE DOWN TIME FOR SOX

2007-10-16T15:29:00.000-05:00

I believe the Red Sox have to win tonight if they want to have a reasonable chance to continue their season. If the Sox lose tonight, I'm sure we'll hear a whole bunch about the 2004 Sox and how being down 1-3 isn't as bad as being down 0-3. I'd like to bet the first one to head this off at the pass.

The 2004 team was great, one for the ages, but this is not the '04 team. Its a completely different group of guys, for better or worse.

I won't go into the many differences in any detail here (much less hitting, much more bullpen this season), but these are different teams with different strengths and different weaknesses. Just because they both had "Boston" across their chests when playing road games doesn't mean they are remotely similar teams.

As unlikely as the '04 team's comeback from down 0-3 was, I'd say it was more likely than a comeback from down 1-3 by this year's Sox. This year's version of the Red Sox needs to simply win. Drama and 13 inning homers aren't what this team does well. Winning 5-3 with a bunch of singles, walks and a few doubles while keeping the game in hand with solid pitching in the late innings is what this team does well. Strangely enough, its what they need to do tonight.

***

I missed yesterday's game entirely as I was traveling from Dallas and Houston back home to Philly. As such, I don't have much to say about the Red Sox performance in Game 3. I will say in light of Daisuke Matsuzaka's recent performances, the Sox will have to reconsider how much they allow Matsuzaka to throw both in and between starts next season.

It was a complicated situation when he came over from Japan because of the workload that he was used to in and between starts. The Sox did not alter Matsuzaka's routine too often and allowed him to throw on game days before and sometimes before and after starts (unheard of in MLB) which he had done in Japan.

Next season, rest will need more emphasis. The fact that the MLB schedule requires pitchers to throw on four days rest compared to six days rest in Japan means pitchers throw more pitches in higher stress situations in a MLB season than they do in a Japanese league season.

Throwing more games in a season with less rest between each means that Matsuzaka put a massive strain on his arm compared to what he is used to. Right now he's probably just tired. Worst case, he's hiding an injury. Its also possible its a bit of both, though with the rigorous medical testing the Sox put their pitchers through, I'm guessing he is just tired.

***

Tonight, the Sox have to win. There is a huge difference between being down 3-1 and being tied 2-2. Huge.

The Sox should be able to hit Paul Byrd, but the Indians will likely be able to hit Tim Wakefield as well. Terry Francona will likely have Wake on a short leash, though his options for replacing him in the early innings don't look promising considering the back end of the bullpen's performance in Game 2.

Maybe the Sox can take a page from the Yankees book and use a starter to throw an inning or two should Wake falter. It should be Schilling's throwing day and so he would regularly be scheduled to pitch a few innings on the side.

POOP! RED SOX LOSE IN 11

2007-10-14T10:38:00.000-05:00

I still say Sox in five.

ALCS GAME 1: SOX WIN 10-3, TAKE 1-0 LEAD IN SERIES

2007-10-13T14:16:00.000-05:00

Beckett didn't dominate, but with the crushing done by the Red Sox offense, he didn't need to. The Sox cruised to ta 10-3 victory over the Cleveland Indians last night and took a 1-0 lead in the best of seven series in the process.

Tonight, Schilling goes against Carmona, the other talented and young 19 game winner for Cleveland.

If the Sox can win tonight, they'll take a commanding 2-0 lead back to Cleveland to face the lesser lights of the Indians rotation. If Cleveland wins, they'll head back home having achieved a satisfying split in enemy territory.

Tonight, whatever advantage the Sox gained when they won home field advantage will be on display. Carmona is a 23 year old, and though he has pitched exceptionally well this year, he may be susceptible to some early game jitters. His last win against the Yankees was at home, and he'll get no such sympathy from the audience tonight. Carmona is also the Indians best pitcher who is available to pitch tonight, so if Eric Wedge has to make any pitching changes he'll be substituting a lesser pitcher into the game.

If he does make some mistakes early, the Sox offense needs to take advantage and put him on the ropes while they can.

Game time tonight is 8:15pm EST.

TRAVELING

2007-10-12T08:50:00.000-05:00

I'll be traveling this weekend to the land of big belt buckles and even bigger guns this weekend. Due to that, I'll likely not be updating here at FPE. I'll be watching the Sox and I'll be back on Monday night and hopefully put something up then.

Please check back around that time, and as always, thanks for reading.

ALCS: RED SOX/INDIANS PREVIEW

2007-10-11T14:03:00.000-05:00

My predictions for the division series were awful. In the NL, I predicted the Phillies to win in five. Instead, they were swept by Colorado. I predicted the Cubs would beat the Diamondbacks in four, but Chicago was swept also. At least I got the number of games right in the AL. I said Yankees in four, but it was Cleveland who won. Oh for three. Sounds like Jeter’s batting line. (Low blow!)

The only series I got absolutely correct was the Red Sox sweep of the Angels, and in truth, that’s the only one I felt strongly about. So, prepare yourself for more bad predictions here at FPE as I tackle…

Both Championship Series

NL

Colorado (NLWC) vs. Arizona (NLW)

Can a team that was outscored on the year really make it to the World Series? Can a team that everyone had written off for dead two weeks before the season ended either? Can a bear poop in the woods? Can my wife make mean cracks at my expense? Does my crotch itch? The Cardinals (I know this is everyone’s excuse. “X team sucks, but just look at the ’06 Cardinals.”) proved that you don’t have to be a good hitting team, or a good pitching team to win the World Series. All you have to do is go up against a series of teams playing badly. Theres a recipe for champions, right there.

Both have strengths, but both of these teams have serious weaknesses too. At least right now the Rockies strengths seem to be coming to the fore more than Arizona. Colorado certainly has a better hitting team than Arizona, and right now they probably have better starting pitching as well.

I’m not going to get any more in depth than that here, so I’ll just say this:

Prediction: Colorado in Five. Bet the house on it.

AL

Cleveland (ALC) vs. Boston (ALE)

Make no mistake about it, the series that follows this will be the World Series in name only. The two most talented teams left in the playoffs are facing each other here.

Lets start with an overview. Both teams finished the season with identical 96-66 records. The Red Sox have the homefield advantage by virtue of their 5-2 record versus Cleveland in the regular season. Despite the regular season results, these teams are not perfectly even.

The Indians scored 811 runs on the season and allowed 704. The Red Sox scored 867 and gave up 657. The Red Sox have scored and been scored upon at the rate of a 101-61 team, while the Indians results translate to a more modest 91-71 record. You’ll notice that the Sox have a ten game advantage according to Pythagorean record. This is more indicative of the difference between these two clubs than the equal win-loss marks they achieved in the regular season

As for hitting, the Red Sox have scored more runs, but they’ve done so in a home park that this season very slightly favors hitters, while the Indians have played their home games in a park that slightly favors pitchers. Thus, maybe the numbers are more similar than I may be giving credit for.

But, remember that baseball schedules aren’t even any more, so like the NFL you have to take the quality of competition into account.

The average non-Red Sox AL East team scored 815 runs while giving up 822, for a Pythagorean record of 80-82. Conversely the average non-Indians AL Central team scored 751 runs while giving up 785, for a Pythagorean record of 77-85. It seems the Red Sox had a more difficult schedule and did more with it.

Of course, these teams aren't the same ones that began the season, so simply comparing their respective seasonal stats doesn't do justice to who these teams are now. To that end, and I acknowledge that this is an imperfect measure, if you compare how the teams hit in their division series, you can see that the Sox scored more runs than did the Indians, and they did it off a better pitching staff.

The Sox scorched the Angels by a cumulative 19-4 score in their three games, for an average score of 6.3-1.3. The Indians won by a cumulative score of 24-16 for an average score of 6-4. The Red Sox were more dominant in their match up.

Now, they were playing different teams, and though those teams won an equal number of games in the regular season (94), you could make an argument that the Yankees were a better team than the Angels. I acknowledge that that argument could be made, but I won’t be making it here. The argument you can’t make is New York’s pitching staff is better than Anaheim’s, because it isn’t. The Sox hitters faced more difficult competition and yet scored more runs.

Conversely, you can’t make the opposite argument, that Anaheim’s hitters were better than New York’s. Of course that isn’t true, but then the Indians gave up more runs than Boston did, befitting the fact that they faced more difficult competition.

As for the pitching staffs, Cleveland’s #1 and #2 starters match up well with those of the Sox. Both Carmona and Sabathia are excellent starters and equal to that of Boston’s Beckett and Schilling. (Carmona is probably a better pitcher at this point than Schilling, but how do you pick against Schilling in the playoffs?)

After those two, the Indians staff starts to get mediocre in a hurry. Despite the win, Byrd didn’t pitch very well against New York, and Westbrook got lit up. In Boston, Matsuzaka didn’t pitch very well either, but he has more of a track record of success than either Cleveland counter part. The wild card for the Sox is Tim Wakefield. He missed the Division Series due to poor health. If he is healthy enough (and he threw a successful side session today according to Boston manager Terry Francona) he’ll throw Game 4 in Cleveland, likely against Byrd.

Heres how I see the match-ups:

Game #1: Sabathia at Beckett
Advantage: Boston

Game #2: Carmona at Schilling
Advantage: toss up

Game #3: Matsuzka at Westbrook
Advantage: Boston

Game #4: Wakefield at Byrd
Advantage: toss up

Game #5: Sabathia at Beckett
Advantage: Boston

Prediction: Boston in five.

YANKS ARE DONE: INDIANS COME TO FENWAY ON FRIDAY

2007-10-09T00:15:00.000-05:00

Good-bye, Roger. Good-bye Derek and Johnny and Alex. Good-bye Jorge and Mariano and Robinson. Good-bye, Yankees, it was fun, but we're moving on, and you all have some locker cleaning to do.

It was an amazing night. Just before the Cowboys kicker booted two game winning field goals, the Yankees succumbed to the Cleveland Indians in Game 4 of their ALDS match up.

Somehow the Yankees didn't beat the ever-loving crap out of Paul Byrd and his myriad of 78 mph fastballs, slower changeups, sub-changeups, slow-sub-changeups, super-slow-sub-changeups, and well, you get the picture.

Byrd throws a bunch of junk. He's basically Eddie Harris from the movie Major League. ("Up your butt, Jobu.") Yet, just as in the movie, the Yankees couldn't do much with him, and the Indians survived with an improbable 6-4 win, taking the series 3 games to 1, and advancing to the American League Championship Series to face our Boston Red Sox, this Friday at 7pm EST.

(An interesting side note: Did you know that the role of Yankees slugger 'Clu Haywood' was played by former pitcher Pete Vuckovitch? Yeah, I didn't either.)

So thats it. Indians/Red Sox. I'll post some predictions here later in the week for the ALCS and the NLCS, but right now I just want to talk Yankees here for a few seconds.

What are the Yankees going to do this off season? They’ve been knocked out of the first round of the playoffs for the third year in a row. George Steinbrenner, despite having fewer working brain cells than our president, issued a warning before Game 4, threatening to fire manager Joe Torre if the Yankees didn’t come back and win the series. They didn’t, so will Torre be fired? If so, what will that mean for impending free agents Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada who have played under Torre their entire careers and (from what I hear) see him as a father figure? Will they chose to look elsewhere now? Will the Yankees pick up Bobby Abreu’s $16M option, or pay his $2M buy-out and let him walk? Will A-Rod opt out, and if so, will Brian Cashman go back on his word and not attempt to resign him? Will Brian Cashman even have a job at that point?

The Yankees are looking at the potential loss of their manager, GM, starting third baseman, starting right fielder, starting catcher, and their Hall-of-Fame closer.

Of course I don’t have any answers to these questions, but they are juicy ones to think about for sure. There are no free agents who come close to A-Rod or Abreu’s hitting ability. There are no free agent catchers who can compare to Posada, and no free agent closers who can hold a candle to Rivera. That said, A-Rod is going to command a huge contract extension from the Yankees, and $16M is a lot to pay for one year of Bobby Abreu considering his lack of power over the past year. Both Rivera and Posada will officially qualify as ‘old’ next season, but both will likely be looking for lucrative long-term deals considering their recent successes.

If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say…

Cashman will keep his job, but Torre will be fired. Rivera will re-sign with the Yankees on a two year deal with a player option for a third at good money. Posada will flirt with the Mets, but will ultimately return to the Bronx as well, but for more money and years than the Yankees would have liked to pay (say 4 years $50M). The Yankees will pick up the $16M option on Abreu simply because theres nobody else better to waste it on, but will explore trading him like they did with Sheffield last winter.

As for A-Rod, the evidence is compelling that Boras will take his client onto the open market. This will release Texas from having to pay the remaining $21M of A-Rod’s salary that they sent along with him when he was traded to New York. This means that re-signing A-Rod to the same contract that he’s currently playing for will cost the Yankees $21M more than it does now.

It seems that A-Rod is not long for New York. In his last at-bat for the Yankees in the ninth, he fittingly swung at a pitch just outside the strike zone and hit a fly ball to the warning track in right field. The effort was emblematic of his time in New York so far. A good effort, and close to the promised land, but ultimately not successful.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if somehow he ended up staying with the Yankees. In either case, it will be interesting to see what happens. Depending on how much turmoil is swirling in the Yankee front offices, there might not be much time to negotiate an extension in New York

***

I’ll be previewing the ALCS later this week, and writing more about the Red Sox and maybe even the Yankees, so stay tuned to FPE, and as always, thanks for reading.

A-ROD & MAN BUTT

2007-10-08T16:59:00.001-05:00

MOVE'N ON UP: SOX SWEEP ANGELS, HEAD TO ALCS

2007-10-07T19:24:00.000-05:00

Curt Schilling threw a beauty, while Ortiz and Manny both homered and the Sox won Game 3 on the road and eliminated the Angels three games to zero.

More to come when we find out who the Red Sox will be facing.

GAME 2: DREW + BULLPEN + MANNY = WIN!; SOX UP 2-0

2007-10-06T17:36:00.000-05:00

I saw Game 1 at my friend's apartment with a few other Red Sox fans. We saw it on my friend's (I'll be charitable here) 12" TV. It was great to be in the company of friends and we all had a great time watching the game together, but the TV was so small that we couldn't read either the score or the pitch count.

After Game 1, my friend went out and bought a $1,000 flat screen TV and hooked it up. We watched Game 2 on that. What a difference and what a game to break the new TV in on. We could actually see Manny's titanic shot head out over the Monster, over Lansdowne Street, and over the parking garage towards the Mass Pike and off into the night as the Sox celebrated.

Well, we would have seen it if we hadn't been jumping up and down screaming. And, Oh my God he crushed it. I don't have a whole lot to add to Manny's blast. My comment at the time was something along the lines of, "OH MY GOD!! HE CRUSHED THE #&$% OUT OF THAT!! AHHHH!!".

I did want to bring up the bullpen though. Its likely that the job the bullpen did to hold the Angels and keep the game close/tied may be forgotten in the pure power and majesty of Manny's homer. I suppose that would be OK. Thats the way of things, and especially the way of the national sports media.

But its important for us Sox fans to notice that after Matsuzaka turned in 4.2 innings of 3 run ball (and potentially more as he left runners on when he exited), the bullpen threw 4.1 scoreless and hitless innings. This allowed the Sox offense to wade through the Angel pen to the point where Manny could crush the Angels with one swing. Oh, and did I mention he slapped the crap out of that ball?

Manny's homer casts quite the literal and figurative shadow. Here are some other semi-unsung heroes of Game 2 which should be noted:

J.D. Drew- OK, Drew got one hit and its not like he crushed the ball either, but it was a damn valuable hit. Drew's single with the bases loaded in the first brought home Youk and Papi and accounted for two thirds of the Sox runs up until Manny totally jacked one.
Julio Lugo - Again, Lugo only accounted for one hit, but it was a well-timed one. Lugo's line drive single in the bottom of the ninth sparked the rally which was ended when Ramirez just creamed that pitch by F-Rod.
Hideki Okajima - Okajima was the most effective of the Sox relievers, throwing 1.1 innings of perfect ball while striking out half of the batters he faced. Maybe that dead-arm period is over with?
Terry Francona - In Game 1 of the Yankees/Indians series, Chien-Ming Wang was struggling for the Yankees. He had given up 4 runs in 4 innings and trouble was threatening again in the fifth. Torre sat on his hands and as a result a close game turned into a rout.

Francona took the opposite tact, deploying his bullpen excellently in Game 2. He recognized that Matsuzaka was struggling and before the game could get out of hand he took evasive action. Unlike Torre, Francona recognized that a game in the ALDS isn't like a game in July, and as such you have to manage them differently. Whereas in the regular season a manager can wait around to see if his starter rights himself, in the post season and especially in a five game series, there is no such luxury. Francona prevented the Sox from falling any farther than a single run behind.

Tomorrow: The series moves to Anaheim and the Sox go for the win. Curt Schilling takes the mound opposite Jered Weaver. Game time 3:07pm EST.

MANNY!!!

2007-10-06T00:40:00.001-05:00

YANKS WILL WIN/YANKS WILL LOSE

2007-10-05T13:00:00.000-05:00

The Yankees will win tonight because:

Indians manager Eric Wedge stupidly used all his good relievers last night with a huge lead. He effectively neutered his own bullpen for tonight's game in order to protect a huge lead. Thus the Yankees will likely have to face a much weaker Cleveland pen tonight, and we all know what the Yankee offense does to mediocre pitching.

The Yankees will lose the series because:

Do you know how many times in 2007 C.C. Sabathia has pitched as badly as he did last night? Basically never, but he had a couple games where he allowed more runs in more innings pitched, so charitably, twice. If you care, here and here. Basically, its pretty unlikely to happen again so the Yankees squandered their chance to beat Sabathia. If you accept that the Yankees will lose to Sabathia again (which, of course, isn't any type of sure thing, but go with it for now) then they have to win every other non-Sabathia-pitched game to win the series.

Joe Torre did something stupid with his bullpen too. With the game already over in the seventh inning, Torre turned to Phil Hughes. Hughes is likely the Yankees third best starter behind Wang and Pettitte, and is a very valuable chip out of the bullpen as a spot starter should one of the Yankees starters fail.

In fact, one could make a good case that Torre erred twice here. Once by not using Hughes in the early innings for an obviously struggling Wang, and once by using him in the late innings with the game's outcome already decided. If Pettitte fails out of the gate tonight, the Yankees will have nobody to turn to.

***

In other news, did anyone see Labron "The Frontrunner" James sitting in the front row of the Indians/Yankees game wearing a Yankees hat last night? He was interviewed on TBS and basically said that despite growing up in Akron, Oh (Indians or Reds territory), he roots for the Yankees. It also came out in the interview that he roots for the Bulls (though probably less so since joining the NBA), and Cowboys too! Sheesh... I bet he also roots for Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Manchester United, IBM, USA, The Republican Party, the Red Wings, and Brazil (men's) and Germany (women's) in soccer.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE?

2007-10-05T10:19:00.001-05:00

2004 was the best year ever. Because of '04 I make a concerted effort to be positive concerning the Red Sox simply because they deserve it. And when you consider their performance over the past four years as a whole, well, its pretty clear that this is a very good team with an excellent management team who knows what they're doing.

But despite that and in spite of myself, I still maintain a somewhat skeptical approach to baseball as a whole. I don't trust the universe and I'm still fearful of the baseball gods, vengeful though they be.

To that end, I'm a bit worried about how everything is turning up Red Sox roses in the first two days of the playoffs. In game one the Red Sox looked both healthy and totally unbeatable. Conversely, the Yankees looked healthy and entirely beatable, which is likely why they were beaten 12-3 by Cleveland last night. Thats two for two right there. I'm officially "wary."

But if you look beyond just the simple Red Sox/Yankees obviousness, the other teams that the Red Sox may encounter should they go on to beat the Angels don't look very good either. Yes, the Indians scored a billion runs off of Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang, but the Sox have done that too, and Indians ace and likely Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia didn't look very good either. In fact, the Yankees had him on the ropes in the fifth and couldn't finish him off. He didn't look very effective throwing five innings and giving up three runs while walking six.

Whats more, all the NL teams look highly beatable, but we kinda knew that already.

I guess what I'm trying to say is we're doing great so far. But we haven't beaten the Angels yet, or for that matter come close to doing so. Its only been one game and theres still a long way to go. Lets not get ahead of ourselves, though I admit its pretty easy to do.

Tonight: Game 2, Matsuzaka vs. Escobar. 8:37pm EST.

Lets Go Sox!!

STELLAR: BECKETT, ORTIZ CRUSH ANGELS; SOX UP 1-0

2007-10-03T20:24:00.000-05:00

That, ladies and gentlemen, was pitching. Josh Beckett dominated the Angels tonight, throwing a four hit shutout. The Angels never had a chance, as Beckett struck out eight and didn't give up a walk.

The game was almost completely stress-free from a Sox fan's point of view. (From an Angles fan's point of view it was probably more stressful.) Beckett simply overpowered the Angels hitters and the Sox took the lead early and held it the whole game.

The Sox brought their A game all around tonight as they beat up on the AL’s ERA leader, Jon Lackey. After Pedroia grounded out, Youk homered into the monster seats to put the Sox up 1-0. A few innings later, Youk doubled down the left field line and then Papi popped one deep into the right field stands for a 3-0 lead. Then, Manny walked and went to second on a wild pitch. Lowell singled him home to make it 4-0 and that was more than enough for Beckett.

They also played great defense, making some excellent (I’m running out of adjectives here) catches. Crisp made a nice sliding catch in the middle innings (sorry, working from memory here), and Ellsbury made a great diving catch for the first out in the ninth on a Chone Figgins line drive to left.

All that adds up to a 1-0 advantage in the best of five series for the Red Sox. Up next is Kelvim Escobar who faces off against Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Escobar was a legitimate Cy Young candidate by the All-Star break, but had some shoulder problems and was ineffective towards the end of the season. He gave up four or more runs in four of his last seven starts, including six runs in four innings in his penultimate start versus Tampa. He settled down a bit and had a nice start against a weak hitting Oakland team to close the season. Still, his ERA over September and October was 7.99.

He also has a slightly higher ERA on the road (3.72 vs. 3.18 at home) on the season.

Now, everything I just wrote about above for Escobar applies to Matsuzaka as well, except the shoulder problems. Matsuzaka was a legit Cy Young candidate at the All-Star break, but was much less effective in the second half, had a ERA over 7.00 in September and October, though he did close the season strongly against a weak hitting Twins team (8 innings, two runs).

So, what can we conclude about this match up? In short, if Escobar is healthy (and theres no guarantee of that) then it should be a pretty even match up. I’m still giving the Red Sox the advantage as they have a better bullpen, better offense, and better defense.

Still, Matsuzaka’s first post-season game should be an exciting one. The guy has the flair for the dramatic, so don’t put it past him to try to one-up Beckett (though I have no idea how he could possibly top Beckett’s performance tonight).

At 8:37 on Friday at Fenway Park the Red Sox try to make it a 2-0 lead.

Lets go Sox!

FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS

2007-10-03T11:53:00.000-05:00

NL

Colorado (WC) vs. Philadelphia (NLE)

Pitching: This is not a strength of either team. The Phillies have Hammels who is the only bona fide ace on either roster, but the Rockies have Manny Corpas who is the only high quality reliever on either roster. Generally, I believe the Rockies have a stronger pitching staff over all, but in a short five game series when Hammels will have the chance to throw in two games (provided he doesn’t get injured) the differences between the two teams staffs are minimized and possibly even favor Philadelphia.

Hitting: There is no team in the National League who are the equal of the Phillies offense. In fact, there are few teams (though they do exist) in the American League that can equal the Phillies offensive output. However, the Rockies aren’t a bad hitting team with Tulowitzski and Holliday to say nothing of Helton. Still, this is a big advantage for the Phillies.

Overall: The Phillies are the better team overall. Considering the pitching staffs and the stadiums these two teams play in these games should be high scoring and fun to watch.

Prediction: Phillies in Five

Chicago (NLC) vs. Arizona (NLW)

Pitching: Both these rotations are top heavy with Webb and Zambrano. The winner of game one will have a huge leg up on the competition. The Cubs bullpen and back end of the rotation is likely stronger than Arizona’s as well.

Hitting: Arizona is a mediocre offensive team, and while the Cubs haven’t scored a ton of runs either this season, they undoubtedly have the better hitters. Ramirez and Derek Lee are both head and shoulders above anyone the Diamondbacks can offer up.

Overall: Despite the season records, I think the Cubs are a stronger team. Arizona has been doing it with smoke and mirrors this season (they’ve been outscored overall on the year) and its time for the run to end.

Prediction: Cubs in 4

AL

New York (WC) vs. Cleveland (ALC)

Pitching: Both teams have similar starting staffs. The Indians CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are met with the Yankees Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang. Wang and Carmona are even similar pitchers, though Carmona is likely slightly better due to his ability to strike batters out at a higher rate. To me, Sabbathia is the best pitcher on either roster, but after that, things get more equal, and even start to tilt the Yankees way. Phil Huges and Roger Clemens are both better than anyone #3 starter that Cleveland can throw.

As for bullpens, the Yankees have Rivera and Joba Chamberlain while the Indians can only boast Rafael Betancourt who isn’t as good as either NY pitcher.

Hitting: The Yankees are an incomparable run scoring machine. The Yankees have a distinct advantage over anyone in the hitting department. One’s mind boggles at the pools of drool that will be emitted by Yankee hitters once the following is heard on the PA system: “Now pitching for Cleveland, Joe Borowski”

Overall: The Indians have an intriguing team with two high quality starters and some heavy hitters, but they’re going to have to win in five games. If the Yankees can keep it under five games (and I think they can) they’ll win.

Prediction: Yankees in 4

Anaheim (ALW) vs. Boston (ALE)

Pitching: Unlike the Phils/Rockies series, both teams have excellent pitching staffs. However, the Red Sox staff is just slightly better all around. From their bullpen to their number three starter, the Sox have a slight edge. Now, theres a big difference between a slight edge and a huge edge. But still, over a whole series where the Angels can expect to face Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka twice and Curt Schilling in game three, the Red Sox have the slight advantage. Its close but the Sox pitching is better.

Hitting: Here there is a larger gap between the two teams. The Red Sox have a deeper lineup, they get on base more and they hit for more power. Even the Angels running attack isn’t as big an advantage this year, as the Red Sox are second in the AL with 94 stolen bases to the Angels 132 (the Sox have also been successful at a 10% higher clip).

Overall: This is the best match up the Red Sox could have hoped for and the worst for the Angels. The Boston's pitching is at least as good as Anaheim’s and their hitting is simply better.

Prediction: Red Sox in 3

WE KNOW WHERE, AND WHEN, BUT, WELL... NOT EXACTLY

2007-09-30T22:47:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox are in, baby! Now its time to get fired up and kick some Angel butts. But before we get all fired up and start indiscriminately butt kicking, we should take an analytical look at things. Which I'm going to do tomorrow. So look for that, eh?

Being that I live in Philadelphia and the Phillies just beat the Mets out for the NL East title, I might also go to the rally they are holding at City Hall tomorrow at noon. We'll see how many Eagles chants break out. If I go I'll take photos and post some pictures here for the three readers I have.

Anyway, the purpose of this post is this: MLB has officially decided when (but not exactly) the Red Sox games will be played. The schedule looks like this:

Gm 1: LAA @ BOS....Wed, Oct. 3
Gm 2: LAA @ BOS....Fri, Oct. 5
Gm 3: BOS @ LAA....Sun, Oct. 7
Gm 4: BOS @ LAA....Mon, Oct. 8 (If necessary)
Gm 5: LAA @ BOS....Wed, Oct. 10 (If necessary)

The Yankees and Indians play Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday.

More tomorrow...

SOX WIN, CLINCH BEST RECORD IN AL

2007-09-29T21:19:00.000-05:00

Two days in a row!

As if winning the division wasn’t enough, the Boston Red Sox have something new to celebrate today. Their win over the Minnesota Twins combined with the Indians loss to Kansas City means that the Red Sox have clinched the best record in the American League (and by extension the best record in all of baseball). Even if the Sox lose tomorrow and the Indians win the Sox hold the tiebreaker with Cleveland.

Thanks to the AL’s win the All-Star game, the Red Sox will have homefield advantage as long as they are in the playoffs.

Speaking of the playoffs, the match ups are officially set now. The Red Sox will face the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim while the Indians will face the New York Yankees. The only thing remaining to be decided is whether the Red Sox will opt for the seven day division series schedule or the eight day. The Sox will have to make their choice soon (tonight according to the Boston Globe).

The Sox will being the playoffs in Boston on either Wednesday night, or Thursday night, depending on which they choose. [Update: the Sox have elected to take the eight day format and start the playoffs on Wednesday.]

The Sox have also announced that tomorrow’s scheduled starter, Curt Schilling, will not pitch. Instead, making likely his last start in a Red Sox uniform, His Craziness, Julian Tavarez will take Ol’ Schil’s place.

As the Globe speculates, this likely means that Schilling will take the second start after Josh Beckett against Anaheim.

The 2007 Boston Red Sox have achieved all their aspirations and hit all their targets. Its been an honor blogging about (most of) it. I’ll post a pre-ALDS write-up either tomorrow or Monday, but in the meantime I plan on basking in the glow of the Red Sox accomplishments

The Sox have had a phenomenally successful season, and its not over yet.

GO SOX!!

AL East: CHAMPS!

AL: CHAMPS!

Tomorrow (Sunday): The Sox wrap up their regular season with Julian Tavarez on the mound. The'll be going for their 97th win. The Twins will throw Matt Garza. Game time 2:05pm.

SOX WIN, YANKS LOSE, SO...

2007-09-29T00:04:00.000-05:00

THE RED SOX ARE AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST CHAMPS!!!

So much to talk about, playoff rosters, getting ready for the Angels, but I'm very much under the weather now, so I'll have to just say "More tomorrow..."

GOOD NEWS: BUCHHOLZ SHUT DOWN FOR SEASON

2007-09-28T17:07:00.000-05:00

Today the Red Sox announced that pitching phenom Clay Buchholz will not pitch anymore this season even though he is not injured. The decision was made in order to prevent injury. As disappointing as this is for me as a fan I'm sure it must be that much more so for the organization, which is why this is such an impressive decision to make.

While the Sox have Buchholz's interests at heart they must have their own in mind as well. But balancing the short term with the long term has always been difficult for people, and especially so for bottom line business like a baseball team.

Of course the Red Sox wanted their stud young pitcher to throw important innings in the playoffs, and I'm sure Buchholz himself wanted to do so as well. I bet many other organizations would have noted those two desires and elected to continue pitching Buchholz. But that wouldn't be a smart decision. In fact, it would be an abjectly dumb one.

Remember what happened to Jonathan Papelbon last September? He had a subluxation (I think thats what they called it) in his shoulder that forced him to be shut down, but that was after the damage was done. Paps was forced to embark on a rigorous shoulder strengthening regime which he still participates in.

You know why he still participates in it? Because the organization was either ignorant of the extent of the wear and tear on his shoulder, or because they were willfully ignorant of it, i.e. they knew about it and elected to allow him to keep pitching because they didn't have other palatable options at the major league level. This post isn't to attack the Red Sox organization for screwing up Paps. Clearly they haven't done that, but they did either knowingly or unknowingly (and probably the latter) place him in a dangerous situation at the end of last season.

The great part about this news is it shows that the Sox have learned from their mistake, or they have more perfect information now than they did then. In either case, this is a vast improvement. A young pitcher simply can't be expected to bow out of pitching in a pennant race or in the playoffs on his own. Its unrealistic to think that in an industry like baseball a pitcher like Buchholz or Paps would tell management that their shoulder felt weak.

Thus, it is incumbent on the Red Sox to ascertain for themselves when a player may be entering dangerous territory and then too act appropriately on that information. Everyone knows that the benefits of saving Buchholz till next season when he will be rested and in better shape to perform in the big leagues far out-weigh the potential gains in allowing him to pitch any more this season. But the fact that the organization made the right choice for itself as well as for Buchholz despite the pressures to win now, speaks well of it.

I loved watching Buchholz pitch, so, as much as I hate to hear that Buchholz won't be pitching anymore this season, I can now point to this decision as part of the reason that the Red Sox are one of the best if not the best organizations in baseball. The front office put themselves in position to get as much information as possible on this topic, and then synthesized all the information into an intelligent decision based not only on the needs of the present but on the future as well.

Decisions like this one make me proud to be a Red Sox fan.

SOX LOSE TO TWINS: EH... SO WHAT?

2007-09-28T07:36:00.000-05:00

Whatever 'it' is, Beckett didn't have it last night. Maybe he left 'it' in his glove compartment. Or maybe his dog ate 'it.' Maybe he used 'it' up his last start, he could be saving 'it', or maybe he just didn't feel like he needed to bring 'it' in the first place.

In any case, the Sox had ample opportunity to win the game and couldn't do it. They left the bases loaded twice that I saw (1st and 9th) and left two runners in scoring position on in the eighth. Mike Lowell twice grounded into rally-killing double plays. And despite all this, the Sox almost won, only losing 5-4.

Fortunately, it only matters if the Sox fail to win two of the next three, which they should be able to do. The Yankees won, so the lead is 2.0 games with three to go. The Sox magic number remains at 2. The Indians lost, so the Sox are still tied with them for the best record in the AL.

Today (Friday): The Sox play game two of four against Minnesota tonight. Daisuke Matsuzaka gets his final regular season start for Boston. He'll be opposed by Kevin Slowey at 7:05pm.

THANKS FOR STOPPING BY: SOX CRUSH A'S, SWEEP 2 GAME SERIES

2007-09-26T22:22:00.000-05:00

Despite Jon Lester's performance (more on that to come in a later post), the Red Sox offense simply laid the wood to the A's pitching staff today to the tune of 11 runs on 17 hits. Four Red Sox had three or more hits on the day, including Manny Ramirez who was removed from the game (in a planned move) after his third.

The win brought the Red Sox magic number to win the AL East down to two games.

AL East: The Yankees beat Tampa to remain 3.0 games out, but at this point it almost doesn't matter.

The real quest right now is for the best record in the AL. The Sox are behind the Indians by a half game, but the Indians are finishing up a double header in Seattle as I type. If they lose the second game (they won the first) they will be tied with Boston at 94-64. If they win, they'll have a one game lead with four to go.

While the Red Sox play their last four games at home versus Minnesota, the Indians play their last four games on the road. They have one more in Seattle and then three in Kansas City. Advantage: Boston!

Playoffs: Despite the intrigue over which team will win the title of best record in the AL, the match-ups for the first round of playoffs are effectively set as of today. The Yankees win eliminates Detroit and confirms NY as at least the Wild Card team. They'll have to make up three games in four days to catch the Red Sox which is very unlikely, so lets tempt fate and pencil in both the Red Sox and the Yankees as the AL East and Wild Card winners, respectively.

The Angels and Indians have already clinched their divisions so they are both in as well. The only question is the ordering of the teams which determines who plays whom. As of now, the rankings are as follows:

1. Boston..................94-64
2. Cleveland............94-64 (Cleveland lost their second game in 10 innings to Seattle)
3. LA of Anaheim...92-67
4. New York............WC

Anaheim is far enough behind that I'm going to assign them the #3 slot. That leaves the one and two slots to Boston and Cleveland. But, assuming that LA and New York don't do anything crazy, the Red Sox first post season opponent is set: LA of Anaheim.

The Sox can't play New York in the first round, so if the Sox end up with the best record they'll play the team that finishes third overall, which looks like it will be Anaheim. If Cleveland maintains the number one ranking, then the Sox would play Anaheim anyway.

Right now, the Red Sox are playing for home field advantage in the American League Championship Series. They already have homefield advantage in the first round as long as they remain in the top two, and they already have the homefield in the World Series as the AL team owns that right after winning the All-Star game.

Tomorrow (Thursday): The Red Sox start their last regular season series of the year. Its at home against Minnesota. Josh Beckett gets the call. He'll be facing Boof Bonser. Game time
7:05pm EST.

POST SEASON AWARDS

2007-09-26T13:41:00.001-05:00

Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports.com has posted his annual choices for baseball's post season awards and I have to say, its not crazy. He actually supports his points with factual evidence for the most part. Good job, Ken.

Of course the whole reason I'm posting anything about it isn't to give Rosenthal a well deserved pat on the back. Nope, I'm going to take issue with a few of his choices. Below, I'll post Rosenthal's choice along with my choice and explain why I'm right and he isn't (I bet you never guessed that I was right, huh? Well, its my blog and if no where else, I'm right here. Except when I'm not, which happens... anyway.) Also, I'm going to skip the NL because that’s how I roll.

AL MVP
Rosenthal: Alex Rodriguez
FPE: Alex Rodriguez
-Theres no real argument to be made for anyone else. A-Rod has simply crushed his competition, even Magglio Ordonez, who is having a career year can't hold a candle to A-Rod's season.

AL Rookie of the Year
Rosenthal: Dustin Pedroia
FPE: Pedroia
-We agree again, and again, it isn't that close. If Matsuzaka had continued his mid-season brilliance I think he would have been the better candidate, but since he's fallen off a cliff, Pedroia is the man.

AL Manager of the Year
Rosenthal: Mike Scioscia
FPE: Terry Francona
-Scioscia gets a lot of respect around the game because he plays 'smallball.' Personally, except in a few certain situations, I hate smallball. Scioscia probably has other characteristics that make him a great manager, but personally, I think Francona deserves the award this season. Simply put, the Red Sox have a better record than the Angels, they've scored more runs than the Angels, they've given up fewer runs than the Angels, and they've done it against better competition than the Angels. The Red Sox have had the best record in baseball all season long despite most people picking them to finish behind the Yankees. The fact that Rosenthal doesn't at least have Francona on his short list (behind Scioscia are Wedge and Torre) is a huge oversight. If you are going to give Torre credit for the Yankees turn around, don’t you also have to blame him for the fact that they needed to turn around in the first place?

AL Cy Young
Rosenthal: C.C. Sabathia
FPE: Beckett
- This race is between Sabathia and Beckett. Nobody else comes close. Beckett's season is in many ways comparable to Sabathia's. There are a few differences however. Rosenthal points out that Sabathia has pitched 40 more innings than Beckett, which is true. I'd say that Beckett has also started fewer games than Sabathia (29 to 33) and as such has pitched a comparable number of innings per start. Sabathia has a slight advantage (7.09 innings per start to Beckett's 6.71). The fact that Sabathia has started more games and has pitched more innings is certainly a point in his favor.

I would argue that the reason for that discrepancy can be traced to the manager of the respective clubs. Call this rationalizing if you want, but the Indians pen isn't nearly as good as Boston's, and so Eric Wedge hasn't been as eager as Francona has to take his best starter out of the game.

Further, part of the reason that Beckett hasn't started as many games is due to the quality of his team mates. The fall off after Beckett in the Red Sox rotation isn't as severe as is the falloff after Sabathia in the Indians rotation. Thus, Wedge and GM Mark Shapiro have made every effort to pitch Sabathia as much as possible, while the Red Sox have taken the opposite approach and attempted to conserve Beckett when ever possible. Of course, part of that discrepancy is also due to Beckett's blister problems in the middle of the season.

While Sabathia has an edge in starts and a slight edge in innings per start, Beckett holds the edge in ERA (3.14 to 3.19), ERA+ (145 to 138), and WHIP (1.125 to 1.137). These are all minor edges, just as Sabathia's innings edge is minor, except for ERA+ where a 7 point edge is relatively important.

Still, its a photo finish. I don't think you can really go wrong with either pitcher. Still, I'd pick Beckett for several reasons which I doubt Rosenthal has taken into account. First, Beckett has pitched in Fenway which has slightly favored hitters this year (park factor of 102) while Sabathia's Jacobs Field has favored pitchers (park factor of 97). Further, Beckett has pitched against better competition as the AL East is a stronger division than the Central. AL East lineups averaged 5.06 runs per game while AL Central teams averaged 4.72.

These two items mean that its been more difficult for Beckett overall to compose his masterful season than it has been for Sabathia. Keeping in mind that these pitchers are very close and what we're really doing is splitting hairs here, I would give the Cy Young to Beckett because he has pitched slightly better against better competition in a more difficult part to pitch in.

LEAD BACK TO 3 GAMES AS SOX BEAT TAMPA

2007-09-25T22:19:00.000-05:00

It was an odd but productive day at Fenway Park for the Red Sox. They managed to beat Tampa 7-3 behind six excellent innings from Curt Schilling. Ol' Schil only gave up one run on the day while striking out six and walking none. He was lifted after 86 pitches, which was by design. My Man Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne (who continued to struggle giving up a walk and a double; more on him later), Paps (who cleaned up Gagne's mess), and Brian Corey (1 inning, 2 runs) finished up the game for Boston.

In the meantime, the Sox got a two run homer from Big Papi and three hits and an RBI walk from J.D. Drew. You know what Drew is hitting since Sept. 1? .323/.443/.565. Thats not going to be sustained, but at least it seems like Drew has found his stroke a bit. Drew will finish this season with numbers far below what the Sox were expecting of him and what he was being paid for, but if he has a hot post-season all is forgiven and forgotten. Sort of reverse A-Rod-ism: someone who has a terrible year but a great post-season. (Yes, I know, over the course of his career A-Rod isn't a bad post-season performer.)

Gagne is another problem all together. Francona keeps throwing him out there in close games (the score was 4-1 when he came in) and he keeps putting guys on base. With two outs and two runners on, Francona brought in Papelbon, who got the third out with one pitch. (Damn that Paps is good, huh?)

There are two ways to see this. The pesimistic view is that Gagne is still ineffective. Whatever he has to figure out probably isn't going to get fixed now and pitching him in a close game is simply asking for trouble. The optimist's view point is that at least Francona didn't sit around on his ass and let Gagne blow the game up (as he has in the past). Instead he went out and got his best guy, Paps, who got the last out and maintained the lead. I guess thats a start.

In other news...

The Sox also got more good news in the form of the return to the lineup of Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis. Manny started in left and, in a planned move, was pulled after he walked in his second at-bat. Youk came in to pinch hit for Eric Hinske with the bases loaded and popped out. He stayed in the game at first base.

With five games left in the season the Red Sox are beginning to get their starting lineup back intact. Its especially encouraging that Manny was able to play the outfield for a few innings without any setbacks. Hopefully Manny will get fully healthy very soon and return to his usual monster Yankee-killing self. The less I have to read "Hinkse" in the lineup, the better.

AL East: The Yankees jumped out to five run lead in Tampa on the strength of an A-Rod grand slam, but couldn't hold it. In fact, Tampa hit one of their own a few innings later to take a 6-5 lead. The Yankees tied the game up 6-6 and it went to extras. In the bottom of the 10th, Joe Torre brought in Jeff Karstens (of the 11.05 ERA Karstens). Karstens' second pitch was deposited over the right field wall by former Yankee prospect Dioner Navarro. Game over, Yankees lose, Yankees lose THAAAAAAAAAAA Yankees lose. (I hate John Sterling.)

The Red Sox lead increases to 3.0 games with just five to go. The Sox magic number stands at 3 with ten games to be played (five by NY, five by Boston). This effectively means the end of any hopes the Yankees have of winning the AL East title. They still need only one win or one Tiger loss to win the Wild Card.

In other Yankees news, Roger Clemens was yanked from his start today (Kei Igawa started in his place) due to tightness in his hamstring. Clemens won't pitch again in the regular season according to MLB.com. Its still to be decided whether or not he'll pitch in the post-season.

This isn't a huge loss for the Yankees, at least not in the divisional series. They may not have been starting Clemens anyway. I would think the Yankees would use Pettitte and Wang (in some order) for four out of the five games anyway.

The third game (which would be pitched by someone else) could be pitched by Phil Huges or Ian Kennedy, both of whom have been more effective than Clemens has. Or, if Torre is coming down with a case of veteran-itis, he could use Mike Mussina, who pitched effectively if not well in his last start.

In any case, as much as we may love to laugh at the tribulations of Fat Billy here in Red Sox Nation, its probably not anything that really matters that much. Although, that in and of itself, might be worth a chuckle.

The Indians are in Seattle (and winning 3-1 in the 7th), while the Angels lost to Texas. In the race for best record in the AL, the standings look like this:

Cleveland....93-63 [edited to reflect Cleveland's win last night]
Boston.........93-64
Anaheim.....92-66

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Jon Lester gets his last regular season start, and quite possibly his last start of the season against Joe Blanton. MLB.com has the game listed at the strange start time of 5:00pm EST.

LEAD GROWS TO 2.0 GAMES

2007-09-24T20:44:00.000-05:00

The Yankees blew a golden opportunity today and lost a half game in the standings to the Red Sox by losing in their final home game of the year to Toronto, 4-1. The Red Sox magic number is down to 5, meaning any total of Red Sox wins & Yankee losses adding up to five or more an dthe Red Sox are AL East champs. The Yankees will now go on the road for six games against the Schwenksville Iron Whores (Orioles) and the Jackson Pillpoppers (Rays).

In other news, the Tigers lost to Minnesota meaning that the only way the Tigers can get into the playoffs is if the Yankees lose every game left in the season while the Tigers win all of their remaining games. Anything short of perfection means that, minimally, the Yankees are going to win the Wild Card. In other words, its pretty much a done deal.

In still more other news, I missed the Red Sox loss in Tampa on Sunday so I could see my Redskins blow a 14 point lead and lose at home to the New York Giants in person. I took some pictures, but considering the result of the afternoon/evening, I'd rather just forget that the game ever happened.

YOU CAN'T GIVE UP ON THIS TEAM: WE'RE IN!

2007-09-22T21:02:00.000-05:00

Its amazing how quickly a win turns into a loss sometimes. Its even more amazing how the Red Sox turn a loss into a win. The fangraph for this has to be crazy. After blowing a 5-3 lead the Red Sox went into the top of the ninth inning down a run with three outs to go before a loss.

On the second pitch of the inning by Rays closer Al Reyes, Cap'n Tek homered. Tie game. Next batter, Hinske, doubles. After a pop up by Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo homered. 6-5 turns into 8-6.

Enter Paps fresh off his grand slam performance of two days ago. He takes care of business 1-2-3. Game over. Sox win.

AL East: Detroit lost to Kansas City 7-4. This means the Red Sox have qualified for the 2007 American League playoffs!!

In other less important news, the Yankees finally won in the tenth inning after a see-saw battle with Toronto. They remain 2.5 games back of Boston.

The Sox comeback win was great for many reasons, not the least of which was that it took advantage of a great opportunity tonight as both Anaheim and Cleveland lost. Boston picks up games on both teams and for now, regains the best record in the American League. The standings for such are as follows:

Boston.........92-63.. -
Cleveland....91-63..-0.5
Anaheim......91-64..-1.0

Tomorrow (Sunday): The Red Sox wrap up their season against the Rays. Tim Wakefield faces Edwin Jackson at 1:40pm EST.

**

In other, even less important news, I will be down in DC tomorrow for the Redskins/Giants game, so I won't be blogging tomorrow. Suffice it to say that I will make up for that this Monday and on through this coming week. Go Skins! Go Sox! That is all.

SOX WIN FIRST GAME IN A THOUSAND YEARS, BEAT RAYS, 8-1

2007-09-21T22:06:00.000-05:00

I'm not a big believer in wins for a pitcher as a stat indicative of much other than decent pitching and lots of run support, but that said, its still nice for Josh Beckett to win his twentieth tonight versus Tampa. As mediocre and inconsistent as Beckett was last season, he has been as good and consistently so this season.

Looking at Beckett's splits from 2006 and comparing them to this season's numbers, three numbers jump out at me. The first is walks. Last season in 204.2 innings, Beckett walked 74 guys. This season in 203.1 innings he has given up 39 walks. Thats a decrease of about half (47%).

Often when you see a decrease in walks like this you see a corresponding decrease in strikeout rate. But Beckett has bucked that trend, striking out 154 last season and 193 this one. (Note: These numbers do not include tonight's game, wherein Beckett walked 2 and K'd 8 in 6.0 innings.)

And yes, he has also given up fewer homers, 36 last year to 17 this year. Take all of these improvements, add the 20 win season (a requisite flashing red light for the BBWA) and you have the bonafides of a Cy Young Award winner. Hopefully thats not the only hardware that Beckett will collect this season.

***

Its great that the Red Sox finally won a game. Of course it was only Tampa, but at this point and the way things have been going, a win is all that matters. Still, the team played very well, homering three times (Tek in the eighth, and Papi & Lowell back to back in the ninth) and holding the Rays to a single run.

The Sox have eight games to go. If they win seven, they win the division. By virtue of their recent slide, the Red Sox have ceded the best record in the AL and thus home field advantage throughout the playoffs to the Cleveland Indians. The standings for best record look like this:

Cleveland...91-62
LAA.............91-62 (pending the result of tonight's game vs. Seattle)
Boston........91-63

So you can see its not dires straights yet. As for your favorite villans, the Yankees entered the bottom of the ninth trailing Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays 4-0, but scored four runs to tie up the game. As of this writing the teams are about to begin the 14th inning with the same 4-4 score. A win keeps NY at 1.5 games back, while a loss pushes them to 2.5. Guess which one I'm rooting for. And while I was typing this, Gregg Zaun homered to put the Jays up 5-4. The game is in New York, so the Yankees will get one more shot. The Jays are still batting in the 14th.

AL East: Covered above. Go Blue Jays! [Edit: The Yankees lost in 14 innings, 5-4. They trail Boston by 2.5 games. Ha ha ha!]

Tomorrow (Saturday): The Sox get another in a never ending series of cracks at your favorite forgotten franchise and mine, the Tampa Devil Rays. Daisuke Matsuzaka tries to remember how to pitch versus Andy Sonnanstine. Festivities get underway at 7:10pm EST.

NEVER SURRENDER!!!!

2007-09-20T13:53:00.001-05:00

This isn't over. Not by a long shot.

GAGNE!!!! I CAN'T F'N BELIEVE HE DID IT AGAIN!! THE GUY MUST BE WORKING FOR THE F'N YANKEES!!! OH, NO WAIT, THATS THE ENTIRE ORIOLES FRANCHISE

2007-09-18T20:44:00.001-05:00

Thats absolutely enough with Eric Gagne pitching in close games. No more, please! Its quite clear the guy is either injured/can't pitch in Boston/emotionally scared from eating bad blueberries/something else it doesn't matter.

At this point he's been given chance after chance after chance and it simply hasn't worked.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have the good Eric Gagne. Love it. Imagine if the Sox had Paps, Okajima and the Eric Gagne we traded for? Thats what we in the industry call "the good bullpen." But guess what? Without Gagne we still have Paps, Okajima, Timlin, and Delcarmen. Thats still pretty good.

To me, and this could be the beers talking, its clear that there is no more good Eric Gagne. Only Zool. And Zool is a pretty crappy relief pitcher. Since Gagne joined the Red Sox at the trade deadline he's pitched in fifteen games and has a WHIP over 2.00. Thats not a huge sample size, but its big enough. Its not like he hasn't been getting the call, or he has had a few atrocious outings. Nope. Its been consistent suckitude.

Take tonight for example. Gagne comes in with the Sox leading 2-1. He promptly gets Reed Johnson and Alex Rios out on seven pitches. Two down, nobody on. Then, as things often do with Gagne, everything went south. He walked Frank Thomas on five pitches. Then he gave up a single. Then he walked Matt Stairs to load the bases. What? You really like walks? Well, good news for you, because Eric Gagne loves walks too! To prove it, he then walked Greg Zaun to force in the tying run. Then double two more runs score blah blah blah...

The thing was, even though he got the first two guys out, his control was all over the place the whole inning. He clearly had no idea where the ball was going regardless of what pitch he was throwing. I know Francona is trying to protect him and show confidence in him, and I respect that very much. In fact, I think its one of the many reasons that Francona should be named Manager of the Year after the season ends. That said, its time to cut bait on this one, Mr. Francona (because I know you read this blog religiously).

I still think it was a good trade. Or at least on paper. But its time to face facts: it hasn't and isn't and won't work out like we'd hoped. Its time to pull the plug on this one. So when the score is 2-1, regardless of who is ahead and the game is getting on in innings, bring someone else in. Please.

***

On another depressing topic, the Orioles are laying down like dogs again. What a terrible and embarrassing franchise they have become. Every September, but sometimes as early as August, the Orioles go into their typical end-of-the-year tailspin where whomever they're playing gets automatic wins. Its really shameful.

Tonight, the Yankees were the lucky recipients of the Orioles largess to the tune of 12-0. Hey, at least they're trying right? Right?

AW CRAP: SOX LOSE TO JAYS, YANKS CREEP CLOSER

2007-09-18T00:54:00.000-05:00

I didn't see a pitch of tonight's game. I was watching my Washington Redskins beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly. And an exciting game it was too. Much more so than what appeared to be a stinkfest in Toronto. Apparently Frank Thomas hit three homers. Oops.

Every other potential playoff team in the AL won. The Yankees beat Baltimore (surprise surprise!), so the Red Sox lead is down to 3.5 games. The Indians won as well, and of this writing the Angels are about to beat Tampa [they did].

bleah...

YA KNOW WHAT? WE'RE GOING TO WIN THE DIVISION ANYWAY.

2007-09-16T21:58:00.000-05:00

Red Sox vs. Yankees. Bottom of the ninth. Bases loaded. Down by one run. Rivera versus Ortiz. Their best pitcher against our best hitter. Best versus best. A 2-2 count. It doesn't get much more tense than that in the regular season.

Unfortunately for us Sox fans, it didn't work out like we would've hoped. Ortiz swung but couldn't quite get it and popped out. Derek Jeter did his obnoxious little fist clenching thing that he does, and the Yankees won, 4-3.

Give Rivera credit, he threw a great pitch. Pretty much only his second great pitch of the nigh as he spent the majority of the inning throwing pretty badly. If Ortiz hadn't swung he'd likely have been called out on strikes. The best case scenario for Ortiz was to foul the pitch back, but he got a little too much of the ball.

I hate to lose this game, but the Sox made a valiant comeback after Jeter's gutshot three run homer off Schilling in the eighth. I hate to lose this game, but the truth is that the Sox are still 4.5 games up. We're going to win the division and we're going to the playoffs, obnoxious fist pump or not.

The Sox were only one hit away. They undeniably got to Chamberlain almost scoring in the seventh and then scoring in the eighth. They got to Rivera, and almost beat him. Schilling pitched magnificently through 7.2 innings. He was one pitch from keeping the Yankees to one run through eight. My Man Manny Delcarmen came in and pitched effectively shutting down New York and keeping the the deficit at three.

All in all, this wasn't a bad effort from the Boston Nine. I'm disappointed in the outcome, but optimistic that this season will still end on a high note. This type of comeback speaks highly of this team, even if they didn't end up coming all the way back.

***

Overall

This series was very close. On huge win sandwiched around two one run loses. The Sox were in position to take all three games but only came away with one. Oddly enough, they were able to beat up on Pettitte, Wang, Chamberlain, and Rivera in those three games, but couldn't score enough against the rest of the Yankees scrubs.

Also, they managed to outscore the Yankees in the series, for whatever thats worth (not much).

***

Schedule

The Red Sox have twelve games left in the season. They play those games in fourteen days. They start with three in Toronto starting tomorrow. Then after an off day, they have three in Tampa Bay. After their last off day, they come back to Boston for two against Oakland, and then four against Minnesota finishes up the season.

The Yankees play three versus Baltimore, and four versus Toronto all in New York. Then they go on the road for six games. The first three are in Tampa and the final three are in Baltimore.

With competition like that, the Sox are going to have to keep winning to keep New York at bay. It should be an interesting two weeks.

AL East: NY is 4.5 back of Boston.

Tomorrow (Monday): Tim Wakefield goes against Dustin McGowan. Game time 7:07pm EST.

QUOTABLE

2007-09-16T11:19:00.000-05:00

"We went through a big mess early in the season and we were able to brush it off. This is a special team. Hopefully, we can keep the magic going."
-Yankees OF Johnny Damon, after New York rallied from a five-run deficit to beat Boston, 8-7, on Friday night

"Oh, rat farts!"
-Yankees OF Johnny Damon, after New York got slaughtered by the Red Sox 10-1 on Saturday afternoon.

THATS MORE LIKE IT: SOX WIN, 10-1

2007-09-15T18:44:00.000-05:00

Its so much easier to post after a win. I don't know how Pirates bloggers do it.

The Sox made this a very easy post today, crushing the Yankees 10-1. Beckett was dominating, giving up only three hits in seven innings of work. He walked two and struck out seven. Compare that to fellow Cy Young candidate Chien-Ming Wang's 5.2 innings of five run, three walk, three strike out ball. Advantage: Josh.

While this game ended as a laugher, it didn't begin that way. Jeter's homer in the first put the Yankees up 1-0. The Red Sox answered back in the bottom of the inning tying it at 1, but neither team scored again until the Sox put one on the board in the bottom of the fifth. Boston scored three more in the bottom of the sixth and then four more in the bottom of the seventh to put the game away.

The win guarantees that the Yankees will leave town at least 4.5 games behind Boston with 14 games to play (the Red Sox have 13 games left). A win by the Sox tomorrow all but wraps up the division crown as the lead will be 6.5 with just 12 to play.

The Sox didn't need much help from their bullpen today. That could be huge tomorrow. While the Yankees went through six different pitchers, the Red Sox used only three. For Boston, Timlin won't likely be available tomorrow as he's thrown in two consecutive days, but other than that the Sox should have Papelbon, Gagne, and Okajima ready to go tomorrow. Conversely, the Yankees should have Chamberlain (although he was throwing in the bullpen for a while at the end of today's game) and Rivera ready should they be needed as well. If Clemens doesn't make it through seven the Yankees will have a tired bullpen to turn to for help.

Quick 'n Dirty Cy Young Comparison:

Wang: 18-7, 3.82 ERA, 186.1 innings pitched
Beckett: 19-6, 3.20 ERA, 188.2 innings pitched

The other guy in serious contention is C.C. Sabathia of Cleveland who is 17-7 with a 3.21 ERA in 227.0 innings pitched.

Also of note, there were some extracurricular activities in today's game. A few innings after throwing a pitch dangerously close to Coco Crisp, Wang hit Kevin Youkilis in the left wrist. Youk had to leave the game (x-rays were negative) and was clearly in some serious pain. An inning later, after retiring the first two hitters, Josh Beckett hit Jason Giambi on the arm with a fastball in the first pitch of the at-bat. The pitch was inside, but it wasn't egregiously so. While Wang's pitch that hit Youk was almost surely unintentional, Beckett's pitch that hit Giambi could have been thrown with malice. Whether it was or not, with Clemens and Schilling (but especially Clemens) on the mound tomorrow this will not likely be forgotten.

AL East: Sox lead NY by 5.5 games, 5 in the loss column. The Yankees lead over the Tigers for the Wild Card is 3.0 games as of this writing (but the Tigers are currently beating the punchless Twins 4-0 in the second inning - a win by Detroit makes that a 2.5 game lead).

Tomorrow: The Red Sox and Yankees wrap up their season series tomorrow night at the Fens. The Yankees lead the season series 9 games to 8, but the Red Sox have outscored New York 96-89. Curt Schilling goes against Roger "Its my last 'last time in Fenway' I swear!" Clemens. Game time 8:05pm EST.

BRUTAL

2007-09-14T22:34:00.001-05:00

Theres not much I feel like saying about a loss like this. Up 7-2 going into the eight inning with your two best relievers, maybe the best relieving duo in the game, available to get the last six outs, and they can't get one out without giving up the lead. A five run lead disappears in the blink of an eye and then to finish off the humiliation the Sox offense couldn't do anything after relinquishing the lead.

Still, we're 4.5 games up on those bastards, so I'd rather be us than them.

Beckett vs. Wang tomorrow.

DAVID ORTIZ 5, TAMP DEVIL RAYS 4

2007-09-12T19:25:00.000-05:00

His shoulder aches and his knees hurt, but theres nothing wrong with David Ortiz's bat. Big Papi hit two homers, including a two run walk-off homer in the ninth off of Rays closer Al Reyes, to account for all five runs the Sox scored.

The Rays held the lead up until the last batter after scoring four runs in the first inning off of Sox starter Jon Lester. Lester settled down a bit after that, but didn't make it through the fourth. He gave up four runs on eight hits and walked four. He also had five strikeouts.

With Ortiz supplying the offense, the Sox pen got it done on the mound. His Craziness, Julian Tavarez took over for Lester with runners on first and third and got the last out to strand them. Tavarez went on to throw 3.0 innings of no-hit ball and left to a well deserved standing ovation from the Fenway crowd. Tavarez was followed by Delcarmen (1 inning, 1 hit), Okajima (K'd the only batter he faced), and Papelbon (1-2-3 top of the ninth).

While the only runs came on Papi homers, the Sox didn't lack for scoring opportunities. They left the bases loaded in the second, and left two runners on twice more, but failed to score each time.

AL East: The win not only keeps the Sox lead over NY (beat Toronto) at 5.0 games, but it keeps their lead for the best record in the AL over LA (beat Baltimore) at 2.0 games.

Tomorrow (Thursday): The Red Sox are off tomorrow. They begin a three game series with the Yankees in Boston on Friday. The match-ups for the Yankees series will be as follows:

Friday: Daisuke Matsuzaka v. Andy Pettitte
Saturday: Chien-Ming Wang v. Josh Beckett
Sunday: Roger Clemens v. Curt Schilling

TOO LONG

2007-09-12T15:29:00.000-05:00

Its been a while since I posted here, and for that I apologize. I have a myriad of reasons for it, but none of them are really worth retelling here. In any case, the Red Sox season has continued on since my last post (suprise! The season didn't stop after I stopped posting here) and the team has done pretty much the same as they had been doing. They are still five games up on the Yankees, though only four in the loss column, and this weekend's series at the Fens looms large on the horizon.

Until then, the Sox have to deal with Tampa once more tonight before taking Thursday off to recharge in preparation for the New York nine.

There will be more to say in a little while, but for now, thanks to El Guapo's Ghost for mentioning us here (again). If I ever take another week long unannounced sabbatical, swing on over to the Ghost to see what thought-provoking commentary he has up. I don't always agree, but its always a good read.

BULLPEN BLOWS IT; DOESN'T MATTER, SOX GOING TO THE PLAYOFFS!!

2007-09-05T20:33:00.000-05:00

The bullpen picked a good game to blow. Getting all of that out of their systems now before the playoffs is fine with me. The Sox held a 4-3 lead, but by the time My Man Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima were done with it, it was a 6-4 deficit. Delcarmen gave up a game tying solo homer to Troy Glaus and Okajima gave up a two run shot to Vernon Wells in the ninth to lose it.

Schilling pitched a fine game, but the Sox offense never got going. A disappointing loss, but ultimately one that shouldn't matter much.

As I stated in the head line, the Sox are going to make the playoffs. With 22 games remaining for the Boston nine, they hold a 6.0 game lead over New York. However, should New York pass us through some miracle, the Sox would still make the Wild Card as they hold a 9.0 game lead over Seattle and theres no way they’ll blow a nine game lead with 22 to go. That’s not happening.

Happy Playoffs, everyone!!

That’s the good news. The bad news is that after tonight it'll take a minor miracle to keep the Yankees out of the playoffs. New York beat Seattle (again) to put themselves up 3.0 games on the fading Mariners. They are 3.5 games up on Detroit as well. New York has 22 games remaining. They aren't going to catch Boston, but they’ll have to have quite a collapse to miss the playoffs.

Come to think of it, this entirely clears up the American League playoff picture. New York will be the Wild Card entrant, while Boston, Cleveland, and Los Angeles will win their divisions. The only thing remaining is the final standings in order to rank the four teams above.

As it stands now, the Red Sox hold the best record in the league. They lead LA by 1.5 games, and Cleveland by 2.5. This means that the Red Sox would face New York in the first round of playoffs.

But, because the Wild Card team can't begin the playoffs by playing a team in their own division, the Red Sox would instead play Cleveland while the Yankees would play Los Angeles. Actually, even if the Angels pass Boston, the match up would remain the same (BOS/CLE and LA/NY) in the first round. The only difference would be home field advantage in the ALCS if both Boston and LA won their series.

Both series would be interesting, not the least bit because New York historically (as in the last five years) has trouble with LA, and the Red Sox are facing the team on the biggest roll right now. In their last ten games Cleveland is 9 and 1.

At this point, and given there is about 20 games to go so things can change, I'd rather face the Angels in the first round. I think the Yankees are more vulnerable in a longer series and I’d rather face them in the seven game ALCS.

AL East: ITS OURS, BABY!!! Sox up by 6 with 22 to play for.

Tomorrow (Thursday): The Sox start a four gamer in beautiful Charm City. Tim Wakefield goes for Boston, Garrett Olson (of the 7 run ERA Olsons) for the Orioles. Game time is the ever predictable 7:05pm EST

SOX KEEP ROLLING, TOPPLE JAYS

2007-09-05T08:10:00.001-05:00

To my eye, Josh Beckett threw one really bad pitch last night and it cost him three runs. That really bad pitch came to Matt Stairs with two runners on, and Stairs hit it out of the park for a three run homer. That’s where the damage started but, to Beckett’s credit, that’s also where it ended. The Sox were able to score more than three runs off Jay’s ace Roy Halladay and win 5-3.

This is the difference between 2007 Josh Beckett and 2006 Josh Beckett. 2007JB gives up the homer but keeps it to that. 2006JB would’ve gotten angry and started throwing fastballs harder and harder. That might have worked on a few batters, but the ultimate result of abandoning your secondary pitches is that hitters know whats coming, and with few exceptions (Mariano Rivera being one) when a major league hitter knows whats coming it doesn’t work out well for the pitcher.

One of the more exciting developments in the game was the continued emergence of the team’s power. The Sox hit two homers last night, one by Jacoby Ellsbury and one by Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis, who doesn’t need to hit homers to be an effective player though it doesn’t hurt, hit a solo shot while Ellsbury who falls into the same category hit a two run homer.

Just about everything written about Ellsbury in the minors has said that his upside is Johnny Damon. Its kinda funny that Ellsbury actually looks like Damon, a little bit anyway. Taking Damon as a comp, that doesn’t leave Ellsbury with much upside to his power numbers. And indeed, Ellsbury hasn’t hit for much power in the minor leagues. He has hit doubles and triples and can leg out infield singles, all which improve his slugging percentage. However, when it comes to hitting the ball over the wall, Ellsbury hasn’t done it much. That’s OK. Ellsbury has enough other skills both offensively and defensively that if he simply improves those and never becomes a home run hitter he could still be an All-Star in the majors.

Still, adding power to his game, real over the wall power, would turn him from a good center fielder to a great one. Imagine the difference between Grady Sizemore and Dave Roberts. Both great fielders, both have on-base skills, and both can steal a base, but the reason that Sizemore is a star and Roberts has moved from team to team is the presence of power in the former’s bat and the lack of it in the latter’s.

I’m not trying to compare Ellsbury favorably to Grady Sizemore. That’s not fair to either player. Still, the comparison hopefully illustrates the difference in ceilings that a developing player with power can achieve over a developing one without power. The fact that Ellsbury has hit two homers in the last couple games should be encouraging, even if we know that its only two homers, small sample size, blah blah blah.

All I’m saying is hopefully he keeps it up, a little bit at least. If so, the Sox could have an even better player on their hands than we thought.

AL East: The Yankees beat Seattle, 12-3. The Red Sox lead in the AL East is still 7.0 games. The Yankees lead in the Wild Card is now 2.0 games.

Today (Wednesday): Curt Schilling gets the start as the Sox go for the three game sweep of Toronto. He'll be opposed by Shaun Marcum. Game time 7:05pm EST.

SOX BLOW HUGE LEAD, WIN ANYWAY

2007-09-03T22:33:00.000-05:00

Up 10-1 against Toronto going into the top of the sixth inning, I penciled this one in as a "W." Oops.

The nine run lead turned into a one run lead after an eight run Toronto sixth consumed starter Daisuke Matsuzaka and reliever Javier Lopez in its fiery wrath. Only the power of My Man Manny Delcarmen could halt the seemingly unstoppable force that was the Blue Jay offense.

Delcarmen halted the carnage in the sixth but then started some of his own in the seventh. Hideki Okajima was called on to halt the Carnage Halter's carnage.

Anywho, it all worked out for the Sox as they piled on enough runs that it didn't matter. Boston's offense scored 3, 0, 2, 5, 0, 3, 0, 0 in eight innings for a total of 13 runs. Everyone who started for the Red Sox ended up with at least one hit. Ellsbury (2), Pedroia (3), Lowell (3), Lugo (2), and Varitek (2) led the way if, you know, more than half the offense can really "lead."

Papelbon came in and shut the door in the ninth with two Ks. Boy is impressive, no?

AL East: The Yanks got dropped at home by the Mariners, 7-1. After sweeping Boston, the Yankees have lost 3 of 4 to Tampa and Seattle. They've also lost two of the three games they picked up in the standings in the process. The Sox lead over New York now stands at 7.0 games. New York's Wild Card lead is 1 over Seattle.

Roger Clemens, who must have it written in his contract that all New York newspapers must refer to him as "Rocket Clemens", is scheduled to have an MRI on his arm tomorrow. I hope he's fine so we can kick the crap out of him later.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): The Sox resume their series against the invaders from the north. Josh Beckett tries to improve his Cy Young credentials versus former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay. Game time is 7:05pm EST.

SOX TAKE SERIES, REGAIN DIGNITY

2007-09-02T14:09:00.000-05:00

I've been moving across Philadelphia, coping with a death in the family, and trying to find a job, so I've been remiss in my duties here. However, I did catch the last out of Buchholz's no-no yesterday, and I did follow parts of Lester's win today. Both were sorely needed after the horrible performance the Sox put forth in Yankee Stadium last week.

But no more about that. now. Onward and upward.

The young pitching gives us all hope for the future, just as their performances in the last two games give us hope for this year. All teams run through rough patches, and we can reasonably expect that the three games the Sox played in New York don't fairly represent what this team is, no matter how upsetting those games were.

With the Yankees losing two of three to Tampa, the lead is back up to six. Now the Sox get the Blue Jays and Orioles this week, while the Yankees get Seattle and Kansas City. The Mariners have lost nine in a row now and stand two games back in the Wild Card race.

More here later. I promise. As always, thanks for reading.

SWEPT: #@$%^&$#@&!!!!

2007-08-30T15:02:00.001-05:00

That went about as badly as it possibly could have. The Red Sox pitching was fine, but their offense was completely nonexistent. They scored six runs on 13 hits over the course of the series. The Yankees had four runs on 14 hits in the second game alone. Over the last 18 innings of the series, the Red Sox scored three runs on six hits. Thats some little league shit right there.*

I'm in the middle of moving right now, so I may post more later. But then again I might not. The lead, eight games just two days ago is now down to five.

Just an terrible, hideous, rank, awful, gutless, shameful, lame, and unacceptable performance.

*I have no idea what this means.

MEET NEW CRAIG, SAME AS OLD CRAIG (HOPEFULLY)

2007-08-30T10:31:00.000-05:00

In an effort to present some good news for Red Sox fans here at FPE, I thought I'd take a moment and mention Craig Hansen. You may remember Craig Hansen. He was the college closer that the Red Sox drafted in the first round two years ago. He threw 12.1 innings in the minors before begin brought up to the big club. He was on the fast track to success and everyone expected that he'd be the closer in Boston for the next ten years. Uh, no.

Hansen got to Boston and was terrible, but only in six innings. Next year he started the year in Boston and wasn't any better. In 38 innings, he gave up 46 hits and 32 (!) runs while striking out 30 and walking 15. If you do the math, here... add the two... divide by seven... that comes out to... "bad pitching."

So the Sox sent Hansen back to AAA where he continued to pitch badly. In 36 innings he struck out 26 and walked 19. His control had deserted him and he couldn't strike anyone out. All of a sudden, if you heard Hansen's name it was in trade proposals as opposed to 'closer of the future' or 'prospect' discussions.

Still, to their credit, the Red Sox didn't give up. They worked with Hansen on his delivery and found a flaw which was causing his slider to even out. A good slider (from a right hander) will basically go from about 2 o'clock to 7 o'clock through the strike zone. Hansen's slider was going from about 2:30 to 9 o'clock. In other words, it was flat. You want a hitter to swing over the top of your slider, but if it doesn't dip that won't happen.

Anyway, Hansen struggled through the first three months of the season, as he worked to correct the flaw. He posted identical 7.20 ERAs in April and June. His ERA was better in May (2.89), but it was deceiving as he walked four and struck out only three in nine innings of work. Plainly put, Hansen wasn't pitching well. He fell off the prospect radar.

Well, don't look now, but it looks like Hansen may be back. In his last 16.2 innings pitched (admittedly a somewhat small sample size) he has given up only one run for an ERA of 0.54. But, as above that can be deceiving. A pitcher has control over three basic factors: strikeouts, walks, and homers allowed. So how has Hansen done in those three crucial categories? Over that 16.2 innings, Hansen has struck out 23 batters while only walking one and giving up (wait for it... wait for it...) zero homers! Yay!

Don't be surprised if the Sox bring him up for a September call up. If his slider is back to what it was in college and his first minor league stint, Hansen could be a strong asset for an already strong Red Sox bullpen.

4-3 THE WRONG WAY: SOX LOSE SECOND IN A ROW TO NY

2007-08-29T22:23:00.001-05:00

Here I am in my new Dustin Pedroia jersey (with Millar's old #15 on the back) and nothing to celebrate. Dammit.

Somehow Fat Billy got the best of the Sox tonight, though I'm still trying to figure out how. Clemens threw six innings and walked an astounding five batters while striking out only two, yet somehow, through some crazy weirdness, only gave up two hits.

He actually had a no hitter going until David Ortiz's monster shot into the left field bleachers to lead off the sixth. Since it was a lead off homer there was nobody on base at the time. The only other hit Clemens gave up was to J.D. Drew who singled through the right side to put runners on first and third in the sixth. That was the best rally the Sox generated all night. Unfortunately, Jason Varitek grounded out to end the threat.

The Sox had a number of hard hit balls against Clemens that just happened to be caught. Tough luck, I guess. Lowell and Ortiz both flied out to the edge of the wall in right center field. Pedroia hit two balls on the nose that were caught by Abreu in right. It may sound simplistic to say, but it was just never the Sox night.

In sharp contrast to Clemens lucky stinginess, Josh Beckett somehow gave up 13 hits, though to my eye didn't pitch markedly worse than Clemens did. Beckett only walked one and struck out six in six and two thirds innings. He didn't pitch spectacular ball, but he was good.

The Yankees three runs in the second inning came on a hard hit single by Posada, a walk to Cano, and then two ground ball singles that happened to find holes in the infield from Cabrera and Damon. Nobody crushed the ball, nobody hit a homer, or for that matter even a double, but the Yankees got hits and the they got just enough of them when they needed them.

Don't forget how these teams were before they started this series. The Yankees had just got their asses handed to them by the Tigers, 16-0 while the Red Sox had just come from creaming the White Sox 46-7 in a four game sweep. Now its the Yankees that are on the verge of a sweep.

As far as I'm concerned, tomorrow's game is huge. A win keeps the lead at seven games with 28 to go. A loss puts the lead at five games and gives the Yankees a huge boost. Ol' Schill has got to strap it on and shut 55,000 new yorkers up tomorrow afternoon. And a little offense wouldn't hurt either. In 18 innings against New York pitching the Sox have generated six runs.

AL East: Yankees are six games behind.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Curt Schilling versus Chien-Ming Wang. 1:05pm EST.

GO SOX!!

PERSPECTIVE

2007-08-29T11:15:00.001-05:00

As much as I hate losing to New York, the next day often brings perspective. Sometimes its a quick look at the standings, or a nice walk in the park that does the trick. Last night, mine came in the form of a phone call.

Not long after the Red Sox lost to the Yankees, my wife's phone rang. It was her mother saying her uncle is being rushed to the ER for emergency brain surgery (is there any other kid of brain surgery?). This morning we found out that the surgery was not successful and that this healthy 55 year old man with three children likely has less than 48 hours of life left.

I don't know the man my wife calls Uncle Ed very well. In truth, I've mostly seen him at family functions which recently have consisted of funerals for his parents. The one interaction that stands out for me was at the most recent of those, the funeral for my wife's grandmother. Ed remarked to me that we only seem to meet under these unfortunate circumstances. I responded by patting him on the shoulder and telling him that if that is the case I don't want to see him again for a long time.

I have no life story to share, nor moral to assign to this tragedy. Uncle Ed was just a good man with a loving family who, one week ago, was going to his job and picking up his dry cleaning like you or me.

People often need to see something tragic happen with their own eyes before they make changes. It seems to be part of the human condition. We don't fix dikes or bridges until we see with our own eyes why we should have fixed them. Similary, we often don't spend time with our families or make time for ourselves until something forces us to rethink our priorities.

This is one reason I love baseball. Watching a ball game is a respite from more important things. Its time spent with friends and loved ones, time spent at a park, enjoying a beer, enjoying the weather, or just enjoying life.

I hope everyone who comes by here to read my ramblings enjoys todays games. Do it for someone who can't anymore.

NEW DESIGN, OLD CRAP: SOX LOSE TO NY

2007-08-28T22:36:00.000-05:00

After today's game I'm really not in the mood to be long winded. I hate losing to the Yankees. I absolutely HATE it. You know I truly hate it too because I capitalized.

When looking at this series, I would have given the Yankees the advantages in games one and three. To keep a respectable seven game lead over New York, the Red Sox have to win just one of these three games. If you accept that premise, then today's loss means tomorrow's Beckett/Clemens row is a must-win for the Sox. As much as a team with a seven game lead and the best record in all of baseball can have a must-win anyway.

Clemens has been a league average pitcher this season while Beckett is a legitimate contender for the AL Cy Young award. This means the game tilts heavily towards Boston.

Oddly enough, Beckett boasts some pretty serious home/road splits as well. At home, Beckett's ERA is 4.25, but on the road its 1.90. At home, Beckett is 2007 Roger Clemens, but on the road he's 1990 Roger Clemens. Thats a big difference.

Hopefully its a clear difference tomorrow night. Game time 7:05pm EST.

***

In other less depressing news, I finally got the site design figured out. Hopefully you like it, and hopefully blogger doesn't eat it. We'll see, I'm not holding my breath.

NEW DESIGN (SORRY)

2007-08-28T10:06:00.000-05:00

Blogger somehow erased my previous template. Due to that, I've come up with this temporary one. The links are gone and so are the other small alterations I've made, but such is life. I won't be able to make any more changes until next week at the earliest due to moving, but I promise I'll come up with something more Fenway Park-ish than this.

Anyway, thats the story here. As always, thanks for reading.

ANATOMY OF AN OPPORTUNITY

2007-08-28T09:26:00.000-05:00

In all my excitement over the Red Sox divisional lead, I have forgotten that there is essentially zero difference between winning the division and winning the Wild Card.

The Wild Card came into existence twelve post seasons ago in 1995. Since then, there have been twenty-four teams that have played in the World Series, eight of which, or 33%, have been Wild Card teams. This means that a given team is just as likely to make the World Series from the Wild Card spot as they are from atop any division.

Remember last year? The Tigers, the World Series participant from the AL, were a Wild Card team. So were the Angels in ’02, the Marlins twice (’97 and ‘03), and the most famous example from our neck of the woods, the ’04 Red Sox. That was a 98-win team that finished the season three games behind the Yankees.

This is all good news for the Yankees. Well, not ’04, but the rest of it.

Its good news because while the Red Sox currently sport an eight game advantage in the divisional race, the Yankees are only two back of Seattle in the Wild Card race. I’m sure if you asked them if they are focused on the Wild Card they’d say no, which is what you’d expect paid athletes to say. Of course they are striving for first place. But realistically the important race for the Yankees now involves Seattle and Detroit. No matter how far out they finish, the final standings in the divisional race won’t matter if the Yankees win the Wild Card. This is because all teams are essentially even once they make the playoffs.

How much would it suck to beat the Yankees in the divisional race by ten games but lose to them in the Championship series? (If you really want to know the answer to that, just ask a Yankees fan how they felt in ’04.) Because the playoffs feature a fair portion of luck, that scenario becomes a possibility despite how flawed a team they have in New York.

Winning the division is great, but the Red Sox have all but accomplished that by now. Their next prize is preventing the Yankees from making the playoffs entirely. Starting today in the Bronx, the Red Sox can go into enemy territory and deliver what amounts to a death sentence to their biggest rival. Just like New York did to us last August.

A Red Sox season can be judged by answering these three questions, in increasing order of importance:

1) Did they make the playoffs?
2) Did they beat the Yankees?
3) Did they win the World Series?

The Red Sox have accomplished the first. They can accomplish the second starting tonight in the Bronx.

SOMETHING SCREWY WITH BLOGGER

2007-08-26T21:01:00.000-05:00

Something is screwy with blogger. My template seems to have disappeared and I'm left with this blank non-design design. I don't know what happened. I may have to make some changes. Anyone with any idea about this please feel free to email me at mattymatty2000@hotmail.com or post in the comments (assuming they're still working).

Thanks.

MAKE THAT 46-7

2007-08-26T16:10:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox crushed the White Sox today. Again. This time the score was 11-1. I'm not sure that this makes up for losing to them in the '05 playoffs (actually I am sure: it doesn't) but at least its nice to cream those guys.

Heres some notes on today's masterpiece:

• J.D. Drew hit a homer. Seriously! It actually happened.

• Big Papi hit yet another homer. In his last ten games Ortiz is hitting .462 with five homers. Not only is he heating up, but he’s doing it at the most important time (end of the year, Yankees series coming up). Raise your hand if you are surprised.

• With first and second and one out in the fifth and the score tied 1-1, Julio Lugo was able to beat out a relay throw and avoid a double play after grounding to third base. Lugo's hustle/speed/lousy hitting kept the inning alive.

On the 2-2 pitch to Dustin Pedroia Lugo stole second base. This brought the count full with runners on second and third. Big Papi was on deck. Everyone knew what Vazquez was going to throw because if ever there was a fastball count this was it. Vazquez threw it and Pedroia didn’t miss it, lining it over the shortstop’s head for a two run single. If anyone doubts that Vazquez made the wrong choice, Papi hit the next pitch over the center field wall to make it 5-1.

• His Craziness, Julian Tavarez threw as well today as he has all season. He gave up only one run (on a solo homer to Jermaine Dye) and two hits over six innings, striking out seven while walking three. Excellent performance by Tavarez, who out-pitched his counterpart by a lot.

• Playing for Many Ramirez, Bobby Kielty singled (on a bunt) and hit a two run homer in four at-bats. He drove in eight runs over the course of the four game series.

• From the “Who Cares? Department”: Kielty is the third Red Sox player on the team to hit without batting gloves. The other two are Doug Mirabelli and Coco Crisp.

• This marks the fourth consecutive game the Red Sox have scored ten or more runs. The cumulative score of this four game series was Red Sox 46, White Sox 7.

• Your Daily Second Guessing (brought to you by Bad Idea Jeans):

El Guapo's Ghost wrote up a feature about Francona's mis-use of Papelbon in blowouts recently. I wrote in and defended Francona, saying that Paps had begun warming while the games were still close. Thus, Francona's actual choices, regardless of the score, were to either use Paps after he was warm, or to warm up another guy and use him instead. The first way you end up killing a fly with a machine gun. With the second you effectively end up using two relievers to fill the slot of one. In this writer's humble opinion Francona had made the correct choices, he had just gotten unlucky (so to speak) that the Red Sox had scored when they did.

Today, we get to revisit the same issue again, but this time Francona made it impossible to defend him. With the score 6-1 in the seventh inning against a lousy opponent, he used three of his top four relievers to finish up the game. Francona brought in Delcarmen, Gagne, and then inexplicably Papelbon in the ninth. You have to wonder about this.

I love the win, and I really love the four game sweep. But the next three games on the schedule are with a much more formidable opponent who, I might also add, we have the opportunity to really put the screws to. I would think that keeping our three best relievers rested, even if they haven’t been worked much over the weekend, would be of paramount importance. In the ninth Papelbon struck out Thome, Konerko, and Pierzynski on thirteen pitches. Wouldn’t you have preferred it had been Abreu, Jeter, and A-Rod?

AL East: The Yankees lost to the Tigers, 5-4. After coming as close as 4.0 games, the Evil Empire has fallen back to 7.5. But only 7 in the loss column. Starting tomorrow we go to New York to finish them off. Go Sox!

Boston is now 80-51, for the best record in baseball, the first team to eighty wins in the majors.

In case you are wondering how this weekend went for the Yankees, I’ll quote Alex Belth, an excellent blogger and devout Yankee fan, who put it this way “…sheer agony…” Would you forgive my callousness if I said something vaguely mean? Fabulous.

Tomorrow (Monday): The Red Sox are off on Monday. Tuesday they head to the great toilet in the Bronx to face the Yankees. Everyone together: "Oooooo..." Daisuke Matsuzaka starts versus Andy Pettitte at 7:05pm EST. More on this series tomorrow here at FPE. Thanks for reading.

SOX SMOKE SOX. AND AGAIN. AND AGAIN...

2007-08-26T11:45:00.000-05:00

Apologies for the lack of posts this weekend. My new wife and I are in the process of moving across the city from a house to an apartment. There is much packing and throwing away of crap to be done and that (and a pirate party Friday night) have occupied my time this weekend.

Posting may be sporadic this week and into next as the move takes over our lives. Don't fear, however. I will do my best to continue to waste hours and hours of precious time watching highlights and clips, and reading blogs and newspapers, in order that I may continue to bring you the best type of analysis and recapping of the Red Sox as I can.

Further, I have noticed the hit counter on the right of the blog rise recently, and I can only take that to mean I am doing an acceptable job here at FPE. I want to thank everyone who has stopped by here and read what I have to say. I appreciate your time and I hope you find it worthwhile to come back.

Whether you do or not, I would welcome any comments you may have regarding this blog and my coverage of my favorite baseball team.

Now back to your regularly scheduled write up.

The past three games have forced me to reach a few conclusions regarding the participating teams. Forgive me for resorting to list form:

1. The White Sox suck. This is not a good team that the Good Sox have been beating the snot out of. The cumulative score over the past three games has been 35-6, which led Ozzie Guillen to remark that he wants the last twelve hours of his life back. Ozzie Guillen: crazy quote machine.

2. The Red Sox look great. You would expect any team that has spent the last three games dominating an opponent to ‘look great.’ And so the Red Sox do. Their starting pitching is not just effective, but shut-down, and other than the back end of the bullpen, the relief corps looks rock solid as well.

3. There are no worse broadcasters than those of the White Sox. They are inarticulate homers that literally don’t understand the game beyond the knowledge base of a ten year old baseball fan. In a word, they are terrible.

AL East: As of this moment the Red Sox lead is up to 6.5 games over New York. The Yankees face the Tigers today (currently losing 5-4 in the 5th).

Today (Sunday): Julian Tavarez takes on Javier Vazquez. Game time about twenty minutes ago (2:05pm). Red Sox up 1-0 in the top of the second.